A poll about Democratic voters points to Biden’s just 40%’s approval is NOT hurting Democratic candidates going into the 2022 Midterm elections….
As we have seen in a few Special Elections already….
Democratic voter ARE juiced up ….
First the Alito 5 abortion ruling….
Now Trump legal revelations ….
And the drop in Gas prices and maybe Biden’s legislative stuff?
A big reason we pay so much attention to a president’s job approval rating, even in a midterm election when the president isn’t on the ballot, is the significant correlation between voter opinions of a president and their vote choice in an election. Suppose you think the president is doing a good job. In that case, you are almost certain to vote for a candidate from his party. In contrast, if you dislike the job the president is doing, you are equally certain to vote for a candidate from the other party.
This parliamentary type of voting has only gotten more pronounced over the last 20-30 years. So much so, noted Ron Brownstein in a recent CNN column that in 2018, “Republicans lost all 10 of the Senate races in states where Trump’s approval rating registered at 48% or below; in every major Senate race that year, the exit polls found that at least 90% of those who disapproved of Trump voted for the Democratic candidate, except in Florida, Indiana and Michigan, where 89% did.”…
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Amy Walter: “A pollster doing work for a non-partisan organization that is not involved in electoral politics shared some of their data with me. That survey also found Democratic candidates were getting a significant share of the vote from those who “somewhat disapprove” of Biden. Among the 11 percent of voters who say they ‘somewhat disapprove’ of Biden, Democrats have 33 point lead on the generic ballot.”
“In other words, maybe the way to look at this gap between Biden’s job approval rating and the generic ballot isn’t to say that Democrats are outperforming Biden, but that Biden is under-performing Democrats.”…