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  3. My official predictions just over one week out from the Midterms…

    Senate Races

    AZ: Mark Kelly(D-Incumbent) 50-47
    CO: Michael Bennet(D-Incumbent) 52-42
    FL: Marco Rubio(R-Incumbent) 52-47
    GA: Raphael Warnock(D-Incumbent) 51-48
    IA: Chuck Grassley(R-Incumbent) 50-49
    KS: Jerry Moran(R-Incumbent) 54-44
    NH: Maggie Hassan(D-Incumbent) 52-45
    NV: CCM(D-Incumbent) 49-47
    NC: Cheri Beasley(D) 49-48
    OH: Tim Ryan(D) 50-48
    PA: John Fetterman(D) 51-48
    SC: Tim Scott(R-Incumbent) 55-43
    WI: Mandela Barnes(D) 50-49

    D’s net 4 seats

    Governor’s Races

    AZ: Katie Hobbs(D) 49-48
    FL: Ron DeSantis(R-Incumbent) 55-45
    GA: Brian Kemp(R-Incumbent) 52-47
    KS: Laura Kelly(D-Incumbent) 50-48
    MI: Gretchen Whitmer(D-Incumbent) 52-46
    MN: Tim Walz(D-Incumbent) 54-44
    NV: Steve Sisolak(D-Incumbent) 49-48
    NM: MLG(D-Incumbent) 53-44
    OR: Tina Kotek(D) 48-45
    PA: Josh Shapiro(D) 55-43
    SC: Henry McMaster(R-Incumbent) 51-48
    SD: Kristi Noem(R-Incumbent) 53-45
    TX: Greg Abbott(R-Incumbent) 53-46
    WI: Tony Evers(D-Incumbent) 51-48

    D’s net one Governorship

    US House

    GOP House gains: AZ-2(O’Halleran), CO-8(New Seat), FL-5(Lawson), FL-7(Murphy, Open Seat), FL-13(Crist, Open Seat), GA-6(formerly McBath), IN-1(Mrvan), OR-5(Schrader, defeated in Primary), RI-2(Langevin, Open Seat), TX-15(formerly Gonzalez), TX-28(Cuellar), WI-3(Kind, Open Seat)
    Dem House Gains: AZ-1(Schwiekert), CA-3(formerly McClintock), CA-22(Valado), CA-27(Garcia), CA-40(Kim), CA-41(Calvert), CA-45(Steel), CO-3(Boebert), FL-15(New Seat), FL-27(Salazar), IA-2(Hinson), MI-3(Meijer, defeated in Primary), MI-10(New Seat), MT-1(New Seat, Zinke de facto Incumbent), NE-2(Bacon), NM-2(Harrell), NY-1(Zeldin, Open Seat), NY-22(Katko, Open Seat), NC-13(New Seat), NC-14(New Seat), OH-1(Chabot), PA-1(Fitzpatrick), PA-10(Perry), WA-3(Herrera-Beutler, defeated in Primary)

    D’s net 12 seats

    Having done deep dives into the various states, I have a more sanguine view of things than do most forecasters, who are by and large defaulting to the banner of Republican triumphalism. There’s a LOT of stuff at play beyond the economic issues, the sputtering back to life of this post-Pandemic economy, and this promises to be a Midterm more like ’98/’02 in terms of bucking orthodoxy.

    • GSE….

      I’m closer to ur view in the Senate

      But the Democrats aren’t gonna hold in the House I feel.,,,

      I’d sire like to hear MORE views…

      And am happy to hear from u guys!

    • Races that slipped through the cracks…

      AK Senator: Lisa Murkowski(R/I-Incumbent) 53-47 after ranked choice voting
      IN Senator: Todd Young(R-Incumbent) 49-44 (Polls have showed a surprising underperformance on Young’s part here)
      UT Senator: Mike Lee(R-Incumbent) 53-47 (Polls have varied on whether his race against Independent Conservative Evan McMullin is actually competitive)

      No effect on my net averages.

      AK Governor: Mike Dunleavy(R-Incumbent) 51.5-48.5 after ranked choice voting
      NY Governor: Kathy Hochul(D-Incumbent) 53-45
      OK Governor: Joy Hofmeister(D) 50-48

      Democrats pick off MA and MD by over 20% margins, hold CT and ME by around 15%. GOP holds OH by close to 20%. Increases to a net of 4 Governor’s seats.

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