The next Alaska House member will be Sarah Palin or YES….A Democrat…..

The Special election up there is still being counted…

But right now?

Democratic former state legislator Mary Peltola

Under Alaska’s new system, a top-four primary leads to a general election resolved by ranked-choice preferences. You’d normally see the fourth-place finisher eliminated at this stage of the process, but the candidate finishing fourth in the June 11 special primary election, independent Al Gross, dropped out and courts ruled he could not be replaced. Since Gross was a former Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, he had a sizable following among Alaska Democrats that presumably switched to Peltola — helping her finish first in the general election despite the state’s usually Republican complexion. Begich was the odd candidate out, though he remains in contention for the full House term (he finished third again in the regular primary), which will be determined by another election in November.

Yes, it’s all complicated. Had Begich edged out Palin in the special general election, he would have probably defeated Peltola in the ranked-choice tabulations. But Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin, and thus far more controversial. There’s considerable speculation that a lot of Begich voters either left their second-choice preference ballot lines blank or abandoned their party to vote for Peltola.

IS leading….

Sarah Palin is in behind in second place……

With all votes other than overseas ballots now tabulated from the special general election held back on August 16, Peltola is easily running first and Palin second. That leaves early front-runner Nick Begich III, a conservative Republican who was already in the field challenging Young before the 39-year incumbent’s death in March, running third. Begich is now sure to be eliminated in the first stage of a ranked-choice tabulation that will send either Palin or Peltola to Washington in September.

Under Alaska’s new system, a top-four primary leads to a general election resolved by ranked-choice preferences. You’d normally see the fourth-place finisher eliminated at this stage of the process, but the candidate finishing fourth in the June 11 special primary election, independent Al Gross, dropped out and courts ruled he could not be replaced. Since Gross was a former Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, he had a sizable following among Alaska Democrats that presumably switched to Peltola — helping her finish first in the general election despite the state’s usually Republican complexion. Begich was the odd candidate out, though he remains in contention for the full House term (he finished third again in the regular primary), which will be determined by another election in November.

Yes, it’s all complicated. Had Begich edged out Palin in the special general election, he would have probably defeated Peltola in the ranked-choice tabulations. But Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin, and thus far more controversial. There’s considerable speculation that a lot of Begich voters either left their second-choice preference ballot lines blank or abandoned their party to vote for Peltola…..

More….