Republicans are running weak candidates …..
Abortion HAS mnade changes to the vote….
Trump has mounting legal headlines…..
And Gas prices are coming down….
At the beginning of the summer, FiveThirtyEight was giving Republicans a 60% chance of holding the Senate but by August 10 their prediction had flipped and they now give Democrats a 60% chance of holding the Senate.
What happened? In addition to a string of positive news for the Democrats, a field of Trump acolytes have been nominated as Republican candidates for the House and Senate (as well as for governor and other statewide races). Many of these nominees have won with Trump’s endorsement and against the better judgment of others in the Republican Party. These candidates could decrease the chances of a Republican blowout this year, especially in the Senate.
Which is why this year reminds me of the 2010 midterm elections. Going into that election, Democrats held a commanding lead in the Senate. But President Obama and his healthcare plan were very unpopular; by mid-August, 2010 Obama’s approval rating was 43%.
Between the 2008 and 2010 elections, Dems lost 9 senate races—6 of them on election night 2010. Many of their candidates got trounced. Nonetheless, Democrats stayed in control, albeit by a much narrower margin.
One of reasons Democrats held onto a slim majority that year can be traced to the influence of the Tea Party in the 2010 Republican nomination process that resulted in some problematic nominees. In Delaware, they helped nominate Christine O’Connell over a more experienced candidate, former Governor, Mike Castle, who would have had a much better shot at the Senate seat, vacated by Vice President Biden and held by a placeholder. O’Donnell had many similarities to Trump and his candidates; she was actually called “unhinged” by the Republican Party Chairman of Delaware, and she specialized in outright lies and character attacks….