That’s what Nate Silver is saying over at FiveThirtyEight.…
He’s not alone in his view which is linked below….
Which thinks the Democrats have better than 50% chance to hold the Senate with Schumer as the Majority Leader…..
Silver also has a view that Democrats pray would happen…
That the Republican ‘s in the US House would NOT have a +20 gainin seats….
Several things HAVE occured that might help the Democrats…..
The Supreme Court Abortion throwdown could be a factor in bringing out voters for Democrats…
Gas prices dropping could help Biden to help fellow Democrats….
Covid restrictions relaxed could help Dem’s….
And ?
Democrats finally gettin Manchin to help them pass another piece of legislation that would be helpful toswing votes …
Oh. and?
The Rightwingnuts could go so overboard that they could actually help Democrats gain votes thru ‘fear’ of the loss of ‘Rights’ people thought they have safety on the books….
As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.1
This is matched by Democrats’ improved position on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election. Democrats are now essentially tied with Republicans in our generic ballot polling average, after having trailed by 2 to 3 percentage points over most of the late spring and early summer….
Amy Walter
In 2018/2020, Dem voters, reeling from narrow WH loss, prioritized electable, centrist candidates in primaries. Most won fall campaigns. 2022, GOP primary voters double-down on Trump-like candidates, despite Trumps narrow loss in their states.