All the ‘gloom and doom’ about Republicans‘rolling’ Democrats thru commanding the redistricting process-on their own is actually not the case….
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The fight isn’t over, but House Democrats’ campaign chief believes his party has at least avoided a redistricting doomsday that would’ve automatically handed the GOP the keys next January.
Republicans still hold an indisputable advantage going into the midterms. But Democrats have seized this year’s redistricting battle with an unexpected ruthlessness, carving out more blue territory than most had expected even just a few months ago, and netting key wins in the courts. That includes New York’s new map this week, in which Democrats could pick up as many as three seats even as the state loses one overall…..
Politico
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Democrats Make Their Biggest Redistricting Move
Cook Political Report: “The biggest redistricting weapon of 2022 has always been the Empire State, and Democrats are poised to finally use it. On Sunday, New York Democrats unveiled a gerrymander that could expand their lead in the delegation from 19D-8R to 22D-4R — the largest single-state shift in the country.”
“Gov. Kathy Hochul has already said she supports using the redistricting process to give her party more seats.”
Politicalwire
BTW?
Judge’s in RED states are throwing out shit Republican redistricting maps…….
North Carolina this time…..
Dave Wasserman seems to have a point…..
On and Democrats ate up in Generic polls….
Biden raid polling ‘bounce’ is to be expected…..
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
This NYT story features inaccurate data that actually understates the competitive decline. There are only 17 seats that voted for Biden/Trump by less than 5 pts in the 29 states w/ new district lines, down from 39 right now (a 56% decline).
‘Taking the Voters Out of the Equation’: How the Parties Are Killing Competition
The number of competitive House districts is dropping, as both Republicans and Democrats use redistricting to draw themselves into safe seats….
More…
Michael Li 李之樸@mcpli
BREAKING: SCOTUS in a 5-4 decision halts the redrawing of Alabama’s congressional map and agrees to hear the cases. Roberts and liberals dissent from granting of stay. Opinion and dissents here: https://supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/21a375_d18f.pdf
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
The SCOTUS decision in Alabama can’t be considered a surprise given the makeup of the court, but it wasn’t a foregone conclusion. It both narrows the Democratic path to a more balanced congressional map and further clouds the already murky standards for ‘majority-minority’ CDs
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict·
Feb 10National update: new lines have been adopted for 322 districts, only 19 of which (5.9%) were decided by less than 5 pts in the 2020 presidential election. That’s down from 40/322 seats (12.4%) under the current lines in those same states. https://cookpolitical.com/redistricting/2022-maps-and-ratings
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict·
Feb 10Under the new lines in these states*, Biden carried 182/322 districts, up from 176/322 under the old lines (in the 11 states yet to redistrict, Biden carried 48/113 seats in 2020).
*Some states are still pending litigation.
Again?
Despite the media ‘hair on fire BS?’
GOPer’s effort to Co-Op the system generally do NOT work….
Redistricting and Competition in House Races
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Despite the growing proportion of districts that strongly favor one party based on presidential voting, the actual margins of House elections have changed very little over the past 50 years, and partisan turnover has fallen only slightly, if at all.”
“The explanation for these contradictory trends is that the personal advantage of incumbency has declined dramatically since the 1980s: The ability of House incumbents to attract votes across party lines and thereby insulate themselves from competition is now much more limited than it was in the 1970s and 1980s.”
More good news for Democrats via redistricting….
Justices Reject GOP Redistricting Pleas In 2 States
“The Supreme Court has turned away efforts from Republicans in North Carolina and Pennsylvania to block state court-ordered congressional districting plans more favorable to Democrats,” the AP reports.