That’s the word from David Wasserman over at The Cook Political Report….
This would be good news for Democrats, who have been worried that Republicans could game the process….
(New York and California final results could actually tip things even more favourable for House Democrats)
They haven’t …
In several cases actually?
Judges have had to step in to even the playing field….
But?
Wasserman still feels that the results of November’s midterm election favor a US House Republican small majority …..
The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP’s favor than the last decade’s. The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden’s approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won’t be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).
The start of 2022 is an ideal time to take stock of the nation’s cartographic makeover. New district lines are either complete or are awaiting certification in 34 states totaling 293 seats — more than two-thirds of the House (this includes the six states with only one seat).
A Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analysis finds that in the completed states, Biden would have carried 161 of 293 districts over Donald Trump in 2020, an uptick from 157 of 292 districts in those states under the current lines (nationwide, Biden carried 224 of 435 seats). And if Democrats were to aggressively gerrymander New York or courts strike down GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina and/or Ohio, the outlook would get even better for Democrats.
However, the partisan distribution of seats before/after redistricting is only one way to gauge the process. Because Democrats currently possess the lion’s share of marginal seats, estimating the practical effect of new lines in 2022 still points towards a wash or a slight GOP gain.
As we’ve written all cycle, redistricting was never going to be the GOP bonanza depicted in some sky-is-falling narratives on the left. Yes, Republicans wield the authority to redraw 187 seats compared to 75 for Democrats. But that’s less lopsided than in 2011, when Republicans had nearly a five-to-one advantage. And many GOP-controlled states are already gerrymandered, limiting Republicans’ ability to wring them for additional gains….
Note…
For the hair on fire media screaming and worrying…
The system IS working…..
Dave Wasserman
Is doing the nitty giddy om Redistricting
MY is STRONG Democratic I think ot was CH arguing
Twitter
Breaking: Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R) open Suffolk County #NY01 moves from Trump +4 to Biden +11, creating an exceptional Dem pickup opportunity.
.,,,
BREAKING: here is NY Dems’ full congressional proposal, courtesy of @zach_solomon1. This is a 22D-4R gerrymander – and a pretty effective one. davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::…
One seems to see the complexity of the election system actually working…
Why those on the left make noise?
The old timers and bosses tend win in the end….
Which why NAGA type’s ate trying now
Ot will be difficult for them outside their areas
NY redistricting Update…
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Early read on NY lower court judge blocking Dems’ 22D-4R gerrymander: ruling likely to be stayed on appeal, so Dems believe map will remain in place, at least for 2022.
Huge stakes here, as a “neutral” map could cost Dems 3-4 seats and erase their nationwide remap gains.