There is NO mistake in this assessment being made public…..
President Biden is trying to ‘talk’ his way out of this with the Russians…..
They watched him pack and leave Afghanistan in a hurry….
With America turning to China?
Putin seem’s to think the American President maybe reluctant to have conflicts on two fronts….
(Russia may never actually ‘invade’ the Ukraine…But massing troops on its border does get the Ukrainians, EU and America’s attention)
An America failure to act would help Russia flex on Europe like the days of the old ‘Soviet Union’….
“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”….
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The unclassified U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Post, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations. Currently, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, according to the document….
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Putin has long railed against NATO expansion into former Warsaw Pact states as a disrespectful encroachment on Moscow. He said a concrete agreement must “rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia’s territory.”…
This has its roots way back in the 90s during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The Bush administration promised Gorbachev that NATO wouldn’t expand into the Warsaw Pact countries.So we know that promise was broken.
Later, representations were made to Yeltsin that NATO wouldn’t expand to the countries that had been part of the Soviet Union.
.Putin famously told GW Bush when he visited his ranch ,” You know George, Ukraine isn’t really a country.”Then NATO said that they were “open” to admitting Ukraine .
There’s a lot of history involved here to explain all this further.
I’ll leave that in the capable hands of DSD .I hope he will take that on.
Very Good Analysis Jack…..
Russian seem to always be paranoid of the West encroaching on their ‘sphere of influence’
I’m flattered, Jack, but you seem to know as much, if not more, about this.
I will say that Encirclement has been, for good historical reasons, an instinctive fear of Russia and of the Soviet Uni0n in particular. After all in 1918-1919, the Bolshevik régime was attacked from both sides, supporting various White armies: Japan and the U.S. in the East, and Britain, France and Poland in the West.
And during the 1930’s, Britain and France, aimed at establishing a Cordon Sanitaire against infection by the disease of Communist internationalism, with France giving support to the Little Entente of Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia.
While Napoleon’s earlier invasion of 1812 is hardly forgotten, there’s a long, deep memory of the Nazi invasion of 1941, disassembling the U.S.S.R, laying waste to her fields, disrupting its industrial development, starving its people and killing something like 20 million Soviet nationals (including 2 or 3 million Prisoners of War and countless Jews.)
Our DSD can be counted on the historical read-back here…..
Thank You…..
Encirclement has been a long fear of Russia, but this also smacks of a political leader whipping up international conflicts to maintain authoritarian control over the country…not that his power is in anyway threatened by the minor uprisings in the country, but when you are a powerful autocrat, paranoia is a top trait and you need to always see the next move against you, so to thwart it, make international conflicts a headline so you can do shit domestically in the shadows…
Yup Bdog……..
It’s much easier to make dissent, criticism and opposition seem treasonous when your country is calling up her citizens to fight an external enemy. “My only son is risking his life and limb to protect the rest of us, but all those malcontents trouble-makers are doing the enemy’s work by undermining the war effort and our heroic Leader.”
Helped the GOP win seats rather than lose them in 2002, just after the Authorization to Use Military Force against the eminently scary and repulsive Saddam Hussein.