Well….
Not for President ….
Cross him off the bottom of the list for 2024…..
And the GOPer’s want to pitch a moderate Republican for a seat in the Blue state’s US Senate election….
Oh?
There is one problem for Hogan….
He’s gotta kiss up to Trump…..
In public….
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is engaging with stepped-up Republican efforts to recruit him into next year’s Senate race, CNN has learned.
The popular Republican governor’s entry into the Senate race in a blue state would immediately put Democrats on defense in what would otherwise be a sleepy reelection for Sen. Chris Van Hollen — and potentially upend Democratic efforts to hold onto the Senate majority in next year’s midterms. But running now would require Hogan to chart an anti-Donald Trump path through GOP politics, which so far no prominent Republican has been able to pull off.
Senior Republicans have been citing Republican Glenn Youngkin’s win in last month’s Virginia governor’s race, urging Hogan — who’s term-limited as governor — to look at that campaign as a model for how to run while keeping the former President at a distance and focus on local issues instead of the national GOP agenda.
Trying to appeal to the independent-minded Hogan, several prominent Republicans have also pitched him and his staff on the idea that if he won and helped Republicans achieve a narrow majority, he could be the GOP’s version of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin….
image….NBC News
He’d lose
And that’s just in a Primary. He’d be navigating a great general election lane, but like Baker in Massachusetts would have an impossible road through a Primary against a Trump backed candidate.
I agree on the primary……..
He probably would do better in the general election
Remember
NYC had 20 years of a Republican mayor
And NYS has had GOPER Governors…..
Moderate GOPer’s CAN get elected in Blue state’s
There’s really nowhere else for Hogan to go other than a failed Presidential campaign where he would be lucky to finish third in New Hampshire at best and withdraw a few weeks later–think Jon Huntsman in 2012.
If Hogan ran for the Senate in Maryland, he would win the Republican nomination. There is not anybody else in the state party of any sort of stature to defeat him. Against an incumbent Democrat like Van Hollen, it would be a competitive race, but certainly far from a sure thing. As popular a Governor as Hogan remains, incumbent Senators tend to win those matchups and Maryland is blue at the federal level.
Of course, Ron Gunzburger is one of Hogan’s chief advisors so that adds an interesting angle to anyone who follows his Twitter feed for Politics1. He is not really mentioning this possibility.
All things considered, I think Hogan should take a pass on running for the Senate. One cannot also run for the GOP Presidential nomination and also possibly run as an Independent in the general election. Unless there is some situation that develops that makes a Republican Presidential nomination look like a possibility, I think he should take the steps to run as an Independent “centrist” for President in all 50 states in a general election, at a time in modern history where both major parties may never be as weak as they are.
I wonder what Ron G would say on this?
I’m sure Hogan could get an Amb gig from Biden if he wanted it….
Yeah that won’t happen either
My 4:30 reply was to CG’s wishcasting.
Where did you buy your crystal ball? If it is a good one, who are the two major party nominees in 2024?
Things that almost everybody agreed would not happen at one point-
Hillary Clinton is not nominated in 2008
Hillary Clinton is seriously challenged for the nominated in 2016
Donald Trump wins nomination
Donald Trump is elected President
Joe Biden wins nomination.
The Democrats here may wind up supporting Hogan in 2024 strategically.
Not gonna happen CG……
Ya gotta quit dreaming….
That somebody will run or that somebody will win? Those are two different things, but you cannot win if you do not run.
What you are fooling yourself is thinking that Joe Biden is likely to win in 2024. That is very much a long-shot, mostly because he is probably not going to run.
So, while 2024 is still a ways off we are maybe looking at something like a Ron DeSantis vs. Elizabeth Warren match-up. There will be lots of Americans who would want another option. Perhaps, you will be one of them.
If there is not another option in the hypothetical mentioned, then Democrats should be very concerned about losing everything.
And if its Trump vs Warren or Trump against Hillary again or even Trump vs Harris, then an even larger number of Americans will want a third option.
But perhaps Democrats can get Michelle Obama or Oprah to run. That would likely be their best option at this point.
I see no evidence a third party would be any more viable in 2024 than it would have been in 2004.
So voters aren’t happy with either party now. Guess what? The parties weren’t popular then either. But people on both sides sucked it up and made a choice.
Of course back then you thought the GOP under the leadership of GW Bush and Dick Cheney hung the moon and stars so you were oblivious to it.
Now that you have no political home you wishcast the whole system coming around to your point of view.
Just because you want it to be so now doesn’t make it any more likely, sorry to say.
2004 had an incumbent President, running for reelection, who was extremely popular with the base of the party (90 percent plus) and an opposition party which was not mired in a cult of personality (although perhaps Howard Dean’s supporters tried) and those are big differences in both circumstances.
The 2024 Dem nomination is likely to be an open contest. Deep down, you all probably know that. Is the party not going to move to the left? Did Biden win for ideological reasons or due to personal popularity against Trump? So, Democrats have some major concerns headed into 2022 and 2024 despite what the upper-class older white guys here might think.
As for Republicans? They could get it right and nominate someone with national appeal. If so, they would probably win a fairly traditional open election. Or they can stay bogged down by Trump which may or may not spell defeat, but would certainly lead to many wanting different options.
My only “wish” is to vote for someone that I am happy to vote for and can legitimately support. That is different than needing them to win. I think you can understand the difference.
You would vote for a pile of dog turd as long as it had a D next to its name and claim to be happy about doing so. That is the major difference between us.
And now the sanctimony begins.
The difference between you and me is that when one party is a legitimate threat to our democracy I don’t see where wasting time and effort by splitting the vote of non fascists is a good thing. You do just so you can claim your vote for the dreaded D was a one time thing.
As you note not even Ron G who is on Hogans payroll is talking about him making an independent run. So show your cards. How is this all going to happen? How is a massive independent candidacy going to
A. Get off the ground and get organized.
B. Get on the ballot in all 50 states
C. Get a majority in the Electoral College
Is it going to happen because someone who won’t even leave his suburban Chicago condo wants it to happen?
Will it happen because someone who had a GOP license plate for 20 years now sees himself as above all “tribalism”?
Look I’d love for there to be a moderate independent or third party candidate with a realistic shot at the White House. But as long as we have the Electoral College there is FAR more likelihood of any such run just splitting the vote and allowing the party of Jan 6 back in
If we didn’t have the EC and chose by popular vote it would be far easier. Of course that’s a non starter with you. Or it was. Now that you are “non tribal” are you open to abolishing the EC?
I said Ron was not talking about Hogan running for the Senate. You need to either read better or be more honest about what others say.
People on blogs who complain about “sanctimony” are those who have no real core values beyond tribal labels and feel guilty about that. I continue to consider that word a compliment.
You are on the Democrats’ plantation and are happy to be there. There is literally nothing a Democrat can ever say or do that will cause you to withhold support. So be it.
I want to vote for and will vote for the best possible option which is why I stopped voting for Republicans for President (and most other offices) when the party walked away from my values and want to be prepared to do so again.
There are ways to qualify for the ballot in all 50 states. We have seen it happen before. Now again, winning is a separate proposition. You should know though that Constitutionally one does need a majority of the Electoral Vote to be elected. There is another path as has happened before in history. However, in theory, somebody can certainly win a plurality in enough states to win a majority of the Electoral College, which has also happened before in history. That would be more likely to happen than a plurality popular vote victory, although such a thing can happen theoretically also. The Electoral College system, which has always existed and is pure wishcasting to think it will go away, works just fine.
We might perhaps need to just pass something to prevent any potential mischief in the future regarding the reading of the Electoral Vote in Congress.
one does *not* need a majority of the EC to be elected.
That you want the EC to remain shows how serious you really are about getting a third party candidate elected. Not at all!
So I’m “on the Democrats plantation”
Wow. A real classy analogy. Your hero Rush Limbaugh must be smiling up from Hell st that one
Not my hero and what independence have you shown?
You proudly vote for Cori Bush.
The EC would make it easier for a third party candidate to win in theory.
But that’s not the point of the debate over the EC. I have said in the past that there are legitimate arguments for a national popular vote, but I think it would lead to more problems than solutions and people would be very dissatisfied with such a change.
Regardless, it should be blatantly clear that a Constitutional Amendment that would be required to eliminate the EC is not going to happen. There are nowhere near enough states that would vote to hurt themselves by doing such a thing.
Eliminating the EC Constitutionally is far. far, far, far less feasible than the possibility of a non-Democrat or non-Republican being elected President.
And if I were merely “wishcasting”, I would want an actual conservative Republican (i.e. someone very different than Trump) to be nominated and elected, as has happened before and as I have strongly supported before.
I think that is possible, but if it is in doubt that such a thing can happen, I want there to be other options. That shows my pragmatism and willingness to compromise. The fact that I actually voted for Joe Biden (without a word of acknowledgement on here by virtually anybody) also shows that. For me, it is country first. Sorry if that makes me sanctimonious. Like many Biden voters, I am dissatisfied with the results thus far.
In a broader sense, I do not think that being an idealist or a “wisher” or a “dreamer” such as MLK and many others is a bad thing. It is part of our American heritage and should be honored.
Ok?
‘In theory’…..
So you actually KNOW this ain’t real….
Ok…
Just making this real clear for us…
Thanks….
Everybody has a right to have a”dream” or a “wish,”however, when projecting such on a political site,one shouldn’t be surprised to have others comment,often adversely ,upon that projection.
There hasn’t been a major third party effort since Ross Perots self financed campaigns thirty or so years ago.Notably Perot never won any EC votes.
Indeed ,besides some faithless electors along the way, the last third party candidate tO actually win any EC votes was George Wallace over fifty years ago.
There is nothing to suggest that a third party candidate now would do so.
I would agree that the parties are currently both in a fairly week state ,but I don’t really see a Larry Hogan led third party ,or any other for that matter ,rising as a result.
I agree Scott
An independent run has no chance and GOPH’s would love it taking from the Democratic vote…
I’ll say it again. Anyone serious about wanting someone other than a nominee of the 2 major parties elected President would support:
1. Ranked choice voting
2. Moving to elect the President by popular vote.
If the status quo of our electoral system makes it so much easier for a third party to be elected why hasn’t it happened in 160 years?
CG’s comment about Democrats like myself being “happy on the plantation” was some thing you would hear at CPAC. Who would expect someone who jumps to that Limbaugh/Tucker Carlson assessment of Democrats to be happy with anyone of that party in power?
We all acknowledged your vote for Biden CG. I think we all knew you’d come to this conclusion when he-surprise surprise–did not govern as the conservative alternative to Trump you want in the White House.
As to Cori Bush I’ve had issues with her and may support an independent challenger to her in 2022–if there is one.
I bet I’ve voted for more independents at the federal level than you have despite being “on the plantation” as you say.
And in that spirit I’ll go you one further. . If you can find me an anti Trump Republican running.for US Senate or any office in Missouri or my House District I will vote for him or her. The only statewide office open next year is Auditor. But I’m talking legitimate Kinzinger/Liz Cheney anti Trump anti “Big Lie” Republicans. Find em for me and I’ll show you how “on the plantation” I am
CG often gets riled up when challenged as you did.Hes pulled the same on me .
Indeed he is obsessed with the fact that I voted for a Republican for Superintendent of Education in SC(I revealed that to him when he similarly attacked me for “never having voted for a Republican.”) because she had endorsed Trump (as did all Republican statewide de candidates in SC in 2016).Incongruously ,the other day he said he “understood” why I did so (the Democratic candidate was an unqualified goof). Which makes his original criticism even more weird.
CG is essentially a man with nowhere to go.He still calls himself a “Republican “ but as I pointed out he would be called a “RINO” by most present day Republicans .He has tried to set himself up as an arbiter as to who is “really”a Republican although by his standards about 90% of present day Republicans wouldn’t qualify which makes his arbitration of such patently absurd.
Accordingly, we will continue to witness his flights of fancy about aThird party arriving on the scene to save the day and the occasional lashing out at others here who dare criticize the same .Sort of sad in a way.His Party is gone, Deep down he knows it , yet hanging on to a past that isn’t coming back is all thats left.That and calling us names.
Update on the Hogan for US Senate from AP News…..
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other top Republicans are stepping up a personal campaign to persuade Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to run for the Senate and help the party’s chances of regaining control of the chamber.
The recruitment effort has included McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, who held Cabinet positions in the Trump and George W. Bush administrations. Moderate Senate Republicans, including Susan Collins of Maine, have also been in direct contact with Hogan to note that his centrist brand of politics would be welcome in a chamber riven with partisanship. Several other Washington officials have made financial pledges or shared internal polling to try to convince Hogan that he has a path to victory….
More…
Who says ya have to kiss Trump’s ass to be in stead in the Grand Ole’ Party???
Many loyal but moderate or pragmatic Republicans would love Mass. Gov. Charlie Baker (R), who doesn’t plan to seek re-election this year, to run for Elizabeth Warren’s seat in 2024.
The base and apparatus of the pitifully-weak Mass. GOP is rock-solid Trump, however, and in 2018 nominated extreme right-wing MAGA Geoff Diehl (a 2022 candidate for Gov.) to run against Sen. Warren, who trounced him 60-36%.
¶ For pragmatists like Mitch McConnell, the number of Republican members (and thus the caucus’s status as minority or majority) matters far more than their political orientations. In 2006, the GOP (GWB) Establishment campaigned vigorously against Cranston mayor Steve Laffey — who would be a standard-to-moderate Republican on a national scale — and for incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee in both the Republican primary and the general election.
Chafee endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, won election as Governor in 2010 as an independent, became a Democrat to run in the 2016 presidential primaries, and in 2020 explored seeking the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party, to which he now adheres.
Although the Chafees were one of the Five Families (together with the Browns, etc.) who traditionally dominated Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee has wound up most of his ties to the Ocean State and moved to Wyoming (in the Northwest, where he’d learned and practised horse-shoeing after earning his classics B.A. at Brown).
Laffey would have easily lost the Senate seat. Chafee (besides being the incumbent) was the best bet to win. It turns out he lost too.
We saw it two years earlier in Pennsylvania, when it was necessary for establishment Republicans to save Arlen Specter in a GOP primary. They did, and he won a reelection, his then primary opponent probably would not have.
Six years later, Specter repaid them with the ultimate political betrayal, and despite the strong backing of Obama and Biden, Specter ironically lost in a Democrat primary when trying to win another term.
Sorry, Chafee endorsed Obama’s re-election in 2012, but not his original candidacy in 2008.
Just saying?
Larry Hogan Confirms He’s Mulling Presidential Bid
GOP leaders are pushing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to run for U.S. Senate this year, but he told CBS News that he’s considering a presidential campaign in 2024.
Politicalwire
Through the looking glass….
Hogan announces for President
Iowa caucuses…Hogan…4%
New Hampshire primary…Hogan…5%
South Carolina primary…Hyannis …2%
Bye bye Larry!
That much?
With that little support (but 2+ years is several political lifetimes; see Sanders & Trump at this point back in 2014) Larry Hogan would do better running as an independent, but that would probably draw away more votes from Biden than from Trump (cf. John Anderson vs Carter and Reagan in 1980).
Hogan could run as an independent but with the Electoral College intact there is no way he could win.
If we had a ranked choice voting system with runoff a third party *could* potentially make it to a runoff and win. Though it is still highly unlikely. But with the EC independent or 3rd Party candidates get regularly shut out.
In 1992, , Ross Perot took second place away from Pres. Bush in Utah and (by a hair’s breadth) Maine.
In 1924, Robert La Follette (Prog.) won only his home state of Wisconsin, but came second (pushing conservative Democrat John W. Davis into third place) in half a dozen other states (e.g. Calif. & Iowa) against Pres. Coolidge.
Upon further inspection, it appears that La Follette took 2nd place in most of the Northwest and Pacific states (Calif., Nev., Ore, Wash, Idaho, Mont, Wyo, Dakotas, Minn. & Iowa)
The saga of Roger MacBride
In 1972 Roger MacBride was a Republican elector in Virginia.Instead of voting for Richard Nixon though, he cast his votes for John Hospers and Toni Nathan ,the presidential and VP candidates of the new Libertarian Party.By voting for Nathan for VP ,MacBride thus became the first elector to cast an electoral vote for a female.
So grateful were the Libertarians that in 1976 they nominated MacBride as their presidential candate.Unfortunately for Macbride no faithless elector saw fit to do what he had done four years earlier.
Later MacBride returned to the Republican Party and helped found the Republican Liberty Caucus which remains active.
I think the only other Libertarian to ever win an Electoral vote was Ron Paul in 2016.
The fact that both of these characters were more at home in the GOP shows why that party can never be significant.
You might remember the old joke…
“ A “libertarian” is nothing more than a Republican who likes to smoke dope!”
I hadn’t heard that one, but I like it.
Now though, nearly 1/2 of Republicans support maryjane decriminalization.
True That Scott
Looks like Congress WILL take the ability to change the electoral vote once a state certfies it…..a ‘hard lock’ ?
James, your posts have had an unusually high number of typos recently, e.g “hard lock” for “hard look” above, “seems” for “sees”, etc.
Your style, logic and assumptions are hard enough to decipher already; but trying to psych out what you wanted to write as compared to what is printed here often makes your stuff look like gibberish.
If you can start composing on a tablet, laptop or desktop with a real or virtual keyboard and a screen that shows whole paragraphs at one time, instead of on a hand-held with too much Autofill, your posts might be easier to grasp. At least balance off the Autofill with some grammar & style checker. Spell-check by itself won’t spot an error that is also a word in its own right (e.g. “lock” for “look”).
Hard lock WAS the choice
On a project and all this is by lousy iPhone
Will be back to regular computer by the weekend….
Sorry….
Update on Hogan for US Senate……
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) will not run for the Senate, rebuffing overtures from senior Senate Republicans who had sought to put another seat in play during the midterm elections.
At a press conference Tuesday, Hogan said he had considered a run, but that he ultimately concluded he should focus on finishing out his second term as governor. Hogan is term-limited and cannot run for reelection this year….
More…