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Open Thread for Dec. 26, 2021….Electoral College Math…..

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The media reports have been that Democrats would lose their shirts from the Census Number’s and Redistricting ….

THAT does Not seem to be what’s developing….

Could the same misjudgement be in store for the Midterms?

Could Democrats hold a bit of their own come Jan. 1 2023?

Of course?

Joe Biden’s approval numbers WILL BE a factor…..

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If nothing else, since the Electoral College and congressional allocations for the decade were locked in based on 2020, migration from blue states to red states will tend to slightly reduce Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
For example, if Electoral College allocations had been based on 2021 rather than 2020 populations, Democrats would have wound up with about 1 fewer electoral vote on the 2024 map. One vote doesn’t have that big an impact, but the trends continue this could become more important.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict

 

National update: on the current trajectory, there will actually be a few *more* Biden-won congressional districts after redistricting than there are now (224/435).
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
That said, there are going to be dozens of narrowly Biden-won seats that are very tenuous for Dems in a rough cycle (esp. in AZ, OH, MI, VA, NV). The biggest threat to Dems’ House majority isn’t redistricting; it’s Biden’s approval rating.

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        • I HAVE related here several times how VP Biden thought he had a ‘deal’ with PM Netanyahu back in the day only to have Bibi change things as soon as Air Force Two delay Israel

          He can’t be happy with this

          There are reports Biden and the new Israeli Prime Minister are at odds on several matters…

          Mostly how to deal with Iran’s bomb efforts

            • It is also pretty dishonest of you as a blog administrator to make a comment, and after replies are made to it, to go into your comment and edit it substantially so that is appears thoroughly different than originally seen.

              This of course is not something anybody else has the ability to do here.

              The others can only hope you are not doing the same in changing our comments after they are made.

              • I have and will continue to correct or add to comment’s I make for clarity and when I remember more

              • This IS an old tune from u……

                I do NOT AND HAVE NOT changed people’s comment’s here….

                Updated post comments are normal on bloc from high volume ones to this ole dogs one

                • You do not just make posts though. You also offer comments, far more than anybody else does.

                  So, you will make a comment. People will reply to it, and then you change your comment to make it appear the reply does not make sense. Nobody else can do that to their own comments.

                  You should remove posts that reference peoples names that they do not use on here, but are more focused on giving yourself some sort of out in regards to comments you make that you can then deny you made.

                  Nobody has the ability to edit their comments,

                  So, it’s a bit shady.

                  • Also, once people read the first comment you make, they are going to be less likely to read the updated version of it because they thought they already saw it.

                    If you want to correct yourself on something (and we all know you often would need to), just make a new comment, like anyone else here would have to do.

                    • Leaders of countries that have absolute control over the masses tend to do WTF they want….

                      Donald Trump tried that

                      It didn’t work…..

                    • Guys

                      Ya ALWAYS can go somewhere else

                      I’ve been running this place for over a decade….

                      I respect ur points….

                      I’m gonna keep running it my way….

                      CG of course has his own……

                      But thanks

                      I’ll keep ur complaints in mind…

                    • Oh I was just agreeing with CGs point.

                      Did I expect you to mend your ways as a result?

                      Of course Not!

                      We all know your penchant for lying which essentially is what you’re doing ,or in your parlance “clarifying.”

  4. Very sad news for me today. Jeff Dickerson, who I went to Junior High and High School with, and who for many years covered the Chicago Bears nationally for ESPN and locally as well on Chicago radio and television passed away today. I did not know he was sick. I did know that he lost his wife two years ago after a long battle with cancer and he leaves behind an 11 year son who has now lost both of his parents to cancer. Just devastating to think about.

    NFL luminary John Madden has also passed away.

    Rest in Peace to both.

    • My nephew has a similar role with the Ravens. His name is Jeff too. He writes for the Athletic and appears on radio and tv for the Ravens too. When the Ravens played the Bears this year I had him over for lunch the day before.

  5. Covid outbreak at my store. We also have one of the lowest compliance rates in the area, which does say something given the area.

    I’m just glad I got the first two, the booster, and a regular flu shot. I’ve been good about the masks…I’d figure about 85% of the time. Whatever happens, I should be good.

  9. Addressed to Jack,

    Thinking of doing Charleston as my end of January vacation this year instead of the three time champion St Augustine, FL. What historic sites, restaurants, highways, etc al, do you recommend as stops in and around the city?

    • NPR
      @NPR
      Ghislaine Maxwell was found guilty of facilitating the abuse of underage girls at the hands of wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein.

      Jurors deliberated for five full days before finding Maxwell guilty on five of the six counts she faced, including the sex trafficking of a minor.

      • Jon Cooper
        @joncoopertweets
        BREAKING: Marjorie Taylor Greene and Andrew Clyde have incurred more than $100,000 combined in fines, which are taken directly from their paychecks.

    • To SE…

      I would advise taking one of the many carriage or walking tours of old Charkeston as a starting point.They will point out t the most historic sites,then you can decide which ones to visit individually.

      Of course there is the almost obligatory visit to Fort Sumter by boat.

      There is also a naval museum at Patriots Point across the Cooper River.

      Mostly, just walk around.You will see many historic buildings and sites including the Exchange Building complete with a British dungeon .

      As to restaurants,some of my favorites are,Halls, Peninsula Grill, Tempest, Charleston Grill and Magnolias.

      You may wish to visit one of the beaches one day also.

      If You come, have fun!

      • We spent a week in Charleston and the surrounding SC coast in June and loved it.

        Jack can definitely give you more info as a local but I’ll echo his comment about just walking around the historic area–The Battery and South of Broad especially. We rented bikes also. We also did a sunset cruise of Charleston Harbor which was pretty great.

        For museums we visited the Old Exchange and Provost Dungeon which had a lot of Revolutionary War history on it’s grounds–as well as the art museum.

        We also spent some time at the beaches–however being June it was a bit more of something you’d want to spend all day doing as opposed to January.
        The one really fancy place we ate was Husk. But there is great food to be found on almost every corner.

  10. Tornado watch and severe storms hitting my area now. I know Dixie Alley is a thing, but this is just so weird.

    I’m crushed to see that a tornado is ravaging Chilton County, Alabama, near where I did a toy drop out in Clanton a couple weeks back. Best wishes to all of them, I just cannot imagine.

  11. Taking this to the Open Thread from the Reid post, because it’s time to put that to bed and let his memory stand for itself…

    It’s hard for me to know what Romney would have done to forestall a Primary challenge from a Trumpian(or Trump) candidate. No small part of me sees his weathervane campaign instincts not serving any of us well in the Oval Office.

    And am I the only one who notices the common thread between CG’s loves of Dubya and Mitt and his…intense focus on Keith? There must be something about those baby boomer men that grabs him in a special way.

  12. According to a Univ. Of Mass. Poll only 21% of Republicans believe Joe Biden’s election was “legitimate.”

    In other words almost 80% of the Republican Party .BASED ON NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER believe a blatant lie.

    Like Joe Walsh said Republicans like lies.

  13. But Jack, if only us Democrats had elected Mitt Romney in 2012 instead of reelecting Barack Obama the GOP would have steered clear of Trump and his hypnotic lies.

    Yeah because those thirty plus years of bigotry and bullshit spewed by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Pat Buchanan, etc that was allowed to fester with only the most mild efforts to hide it after each GOP primary wasn’t going to eventually boil over.

    SE brings up a good point. What would or could a President Romney in 2015-16 have done if Trump came down that elevator with the goal of knocking Mittens off the throne? Buchanan wasn’t able to unseat GHW Bush in 1992 but after 20 plus more years the GOP was clearly more ready to let their inner bigot flag fly by 2016. Would Romney have been strong enough to stop that? I have my doubts. He almost lost the 2012 nomination to Rick Freakin’ Santorum!

    • Santorum never had a real chance, anti Catholic sentiment is still very strong amongst base Conservatives. A not miniscule part of what motivates them against Biden.

      Now Newt damn near caught fire. Had Romney not gone hard after him in Florida, he’d probably have become a runaway train. He’d have also probably lost NC and the Nebraska electoral vote to Obama.

    • It’s important to remember that Mitt was next in line after McCain, that’s how the Republican Board Room rolled in those days, now they are afraid of the rabble voters.

      Mitt’s only accomplishment was his health care plan, passed through a Democratic Legislature, a good solid plan that he then repudiated for craven political gain. He didn’t run for re-election, like Charlie Baker, because he couldn’t get re-elected. He remains very unpopular in Massachusetts. I have always said Obama should be ashamed that he didn’t beat him by a bigger margin.

      Mitt is a human weather van that would have been a terrible President. I really don’t think there’s much to debate about that.

      • Morning everyone on the last day of a rough 2021…..

        I DO hope that 2022 will see a move back to some sort of health normality with Omicron burning itself out….

        Democrats need to get their shit together ….

        It’s gonna be a rough Midterm trek….

        And?

        I sincerely hope Donald Trump’s Karma crashes on his sorry ass…..

      • Mitt was and is a duck out of water……

        McCain was a good man and a principled guy….

        And some hated him for for it…

  15. a new Republican bill in Oklahoma is Modeled after Texas’s abortion bill in that it gives people a financial incentive to target LGBT books that might not yet Have not yet been removed from some Oklahoma libtaries.

    https://www.mcalesternews.com/cnhi_network/oklahoma-bill-gives-parents-the-right-to-have-a-book-removed-from-a-school-library/article_2cd5f468-641c-11ec-9674-475897eac565.html

    if this passes, it will likely help Republicans increase the suicide rate of lGBT students which is already several times higher than the suicide rate is non-LGBT students.

    • …’Many White progressives say they were transformed by a close relationship or a memorable encounter with a nonwhite person.’….

  17. I was struck by the comment that said something like (I am paraphrasing) “it wasn’t unapologetic racists like the KKK who taught me to hate”. It was white people. It was my family, my church and my teachers, decent white people”.

    That comment of “decent white people” hit me. To be able to see racists as decent people was a little disturbing to me. I grew up in a town that had no blacks living there that I knew about. There were no blacks in my Catholic high school class. I was surrounded by racists through high school, but I never thought of these people as racists. It really wasn’t until I went to Seton Hall did I first get to know any blacks. Perhaps the most memorable was Sharon, a Newark intercity black woman in my sociology class. I was reminded me how CG said “Hell No” when answering whether he had ever been to Newark, and noting to myself that I wasn’t the least bit surprised. I also repeatedly thought how one person on this blog has absolutely no ability to see themselves in the shoes of other people who are very different than him.

    A key question to me is how do you get other people to want to be able to want to know what it is like to be a black person, or a transgendered person, or a refugee. I wish I knew.

    • Probably the moment when I first realized my former stances on gay people was thoroughly wicked came in 2017 when I found out the owner of a bookstore I frequented had been married to her partner for a quarter century at that time. When I discovered that online, the guilt and shame I felt was damn near overwhelming, as well it should have been. In prior years, as Trump was bursting onto the scene, I had tried to patch together in my mind a more conciliatory view while still upholding the, ahem, core religious aspect of the conversation that I at the time thought to be true. As I’d thought to myself at the time, if Father Mychal Judge could live in honorable service to God as a homosexual, then who is to say someone else couldn’t as well? After a long, hard crash course on this and quite a few other things in life, I eventually realized you don’t have to hate or uphold dehumanizing perspectives and systems in order to go far and do good in life.

      That same bookstore owner has of late been incredibly helpful to me in helping me collect and put stuff together for toy drops.

      • Ghost,

        Happy to hear about your growth. Be kind to yourself. We all make mistakes, but only the best learn from the mistakes. Each of us still has lessons thar we still need to learn.

            • Caroline Giuliani…

              Is an American filmmaker, political activist, and writer. She is the daughter of Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City. Giuliani has received national media attention for publicly disagreeing with and criticizing her Republican father’s politics and political…

              Wiki…

    • Z?

      I suffer in quiet….

      Owner Mara should….

      Fire the General Manager….

      Fire the Coach….

      Trade the QB….

      Bring in a veteran and YES pay’m!

      Trade for a Better Offensive line SERIOUSLY this time…

      This losing thing is getting OLD…..

      Todays game was an embarrassment …

      I hope the sports media get’s in owner Mara’s shit…..

      • If the Bears had been playing against a Tom Brady team, they could have had their gaudy lead entirely erased in the last minutes like what the Patriots did to our Falcons five years ago.

      • The Giants ARE a far cry from 15 or so years ago when they upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl and got a team shout out in a popular DreamWorks animated kids movie.

        • Afternoon All….

          The Giants lost it after 2012……

          Super Bowl wins in 87, 91, 2008 and 2012….

  20. The Giants Mike Glennon completed 36% of his passes for 24 yards, but he also had two interceptions. I think he also had two fumbles and a few sacks. What team other than the Giants would even want Glennon on their practice squad? That may have been the most inept QB performance I ever saw. And I am old enough to remember Joe Pisarchik.

  21. My brother has 3 season tickets with the Giants. Last month, they had their fan appreciation day and fans were offered a free medium soda per account (not even per ticket). In other words, he has three season tickets, but they only got one medium soda). Giant fans not only have to pay steep season ticket prices, but a steep PSL and if my recollection is correct, parking fees, although you can now take the NJ Transit train to get there – as I once did.

    Has anyone ever heard of a more pathetic fan appreciation day- especially for such a bad team?

    • The problem is fans STILL have to pay a premium to get on line for season tickets…

      They still show up at the stadium ….

      So?

      Owner Mara CAN get away with ‘on the cheap’.…

          • MD-Gov: Former LG and RNC Chairman Michael Steele (R) will not run for governor. 4 Republicans are running-state Commerce Secretray Kelly Schulz (R), state Rep. Dan Cox (R), attorney and anti-tax activist Robin Ficker (R), and Joe Werner (R), who has run for various offices recently as a Democrat and was the 2016 Democratic nominee in MD-1. Steele’s decision not to run is seen as a benefit to Schulz, who has the moderate lane to herself against the Trump-endorsed Cox. There is a crowded Democratic primary.

            RRH…

            WTF would Steele want to get back into politics again with the way things are now?

            • Like Howard Dean and Reince Priebus (before he kissed The Ring), two other national party chairmen, I recall Michael Steele being a strong advocate for a 50-state, Big Tent policy. (He once drove an RNC recruiting bus to Massachusetts.) Like Ronald Reagan, I think Steele believes that your 80% friend is not your 100% enemy — Trump will become your relentless persecutor for being only his 95% friend.

              I know Steele is one of those regular newstalk show panel commentators, but I think on a channel I don’t regularly watch.

        • Never heard of them. The article I read about his death in the Tennessean did not mention his vaccination status. RIP.

          • He had preexisting conditions, so, a la Colin Powell, any vaccination may not have had a real impact.

            But considering the political keel of that sub genre of music, it’s not likely many would be vaccinated, or in any respect pro science.

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