Huh?
What is going on here?
Remember media posted ‘reported ‘ case numbers are based on CDC figures and other inputs…
@NateSilver538
If they revised last week’s figure from 73% to 22% (!!!!!!! Seriously WTF?!?!?) I think we have to assume the CDC’s method is crap and should be ignored going forward.
Jason Gallagher
@JGPharmD
CDC estimates of circulating variants including week of 12/25. Notably week of 12/18 estimate of Omicron revised from ~73% to 22.5% (just a tad different!). Now saying 58.6% of variants are Omicron nationwide. 1/
Then there is this….
Research by South African scientists suggests that Omicron could displace the Delta variant of the coronavirus because infection with the new variant boosts immunity to the older one….
More…
NY Post piece has more detail….
BTW?
Pfizer and Moderna stock are dropping in value…
Vaccine and booster numbers have dropped…..
The treatment pill for Alpha and Delta infections may stop their share value slides…..
Interesting, eh?
CDC mad crazy ‘reported’ numbers thru the roof….With vaccine people getting it….
Then adjusted down?
And The Omi strain not as severe?
This IS indeed a crazy assed time…
Wear ya damn mask!….
I read that The regular masks are NOT very effective against Omicron, but are effective against Delta. We should be switching to N95 to protect against Omicron.
Delta is the worry…..
You are much less likely to die from Omicron, but there are still a lot of hospitalizations.
True That
Well….WELL…
The editors at the NY Times FINALLY acknowledges the CDC’s fucked up job with virus related data….
Experts said they were not surprised by the revisions, given that the C.D.C.’s estimates are rough guesses, with a wide range of possible values known as “confidence intervals.” Cases of Omicron can only be confirmed by genetic sequencing, which is performed on just a portion of samples across the country….
…
The new estimate of 59 percent is also a rough calculation, experts said, and will most likely be revised in future weeks.
More…
The rough estimate is not a “mistake” (just as Rumsfeld said about war, you wrangle the data you have, not the date you wish you had).
But as Dr Ashid Jha (Brown Public Health School) said, the problem was messaging: the CDC wasn’t explicit enough that the preliminary estimates were based on a small sample and subject ro revision as more data come in.
¶ This concept should be clear to posters here who are always drawing provisional data for their election projections from opinion polls, social statistics and the results of other elections as they come in.
I was one of the few here (I think there was one other) who warned that Donald Trump could win the 2016 election and that Hillary Clinton was not guaranteed victory.
Good reply DSD!
Although I’m sure James didn’t “ get” the implication of your third paragraph.
Jack?
Polling IS about the only thing people can base political judgments on….
DSD’s point is well taken
Everyone picks what they want
EVERYONE
The best advice is look at the trends….
But polling IS here to stay and a way for the media to run the narrative weither U like it or not….
As usual you miss the whole point
What’s new?
Not a damn thing among us here ….
It’s sooooooo comforting!😄
No, James, I certainly was NOT saying that everyone cherry-picks polls and statistics — even if that is your own common practice.
I was saying that data change with experience. A small South African sample at the beginning of Omicron indicated very different results from what a much larger sample revealed.
Therefore, the CDC changed its own conclusions and recommendations. Their fault was in not indicating at the start that later results might produce very different conclusions and results.
t
DSD?
I STRONGLY disagree with ur second paragraph on this….
The original South African report was that Omicron was less severe to their sampled group….
They group was young, Yes…
But the strain was wildly infectious but NOT severe in human reactions….
THAT WAS the first call….
Today…
Dr.Fauci the US President’s prime medical advisor and the CDC itself ECHOED the results that the South Africa’s and the first US studies reported…
The ‘change’ recently on the time out times and admittance on the severity on the Omicron strain was NOT based mush of anything except the all along less severity and the push by the White House to cut back the isolation times , which is aimed at boosting the economy by less turnaround time for those infected….
The CDC is so whipsawed that they just admitted that their virus numbers last week at 73% where over reported ….That the 73% was actually 23%…..
By looking at the ‘reported’ averages for cases, hospital stays and deaths in America you can see that even if the numbers may not be solid?
The TRENDS marry the South Africa initial reports …
The experts here now say that the sheer number of cases of which Omicron is the majority IS their worry…
NOT the severity which is low….
Obviously time will clarify the whole Alpha, Delta and Omicron experience …
But right now?
The White House ain’t thinking about ‘later results’….
They ARE worried more about politics….
The beatdown the President is getting in the em did which IS beating the ‘hair on fire ‘ narrative like drum….
DSD?
It is naive to be separate the CDC decision making form the politicians …
That didn’t happen with Trump….
It isn’t for Biden…
At least President Biden seems sincere in trying to help us ….
But?
On cherry picking polls…
EVERY FUCKING Body does….
Republicans…
Democrats….
Conservatives….
Progressives…
Even us here….
THAT?
Just is my friend….
DSD?
Bonus Quote of the Day
“It really had a lot to do with what we thought people would be able to tolerate.”
— CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, in an interview on CNN, on shortening the Covid-19 quarantine from 10 days to 5 days.
This IS a POLITICAL judgement ….
At home virus testing questions….
Millions of rapid at-home Covid tests are flying off pharmacy shelves across the country, giving Americans an instant, if sometimes imperfect, read on whether they are infected with the coronavirus.
But the results are rarely reported to public health departments, exacerbating the longstanding challenges of maintaining an accurate count of cases at a time when the number of infections is surging because of the Omicron variant.
At the minimum, the widespread availability of at-home tests is wreaking havoc with the accuracy of official positivity rates and case counts. At the other extreme, it is one factor making some public health experts raise a question that once would have been unthinkable: Do counts of coronavirus cases serve a useful purpose, and if not, should they be continued?..
More…
There are estimates flying around from many sources that case number now reflect only a small portion of actual infections.Ive seen estimates that reported cases now comprise only 1 in 10 of actual cases.
If that is near right then there are now 3-5 million cases a day.Most are either assymptomatic or very mild and accordingly they are not “reported” in official counts.(I used my son as an example recently).
The time is here,in my view, to concentrate more on hospitalizations and death cases .
I mean in a month you could have over a third of the total population “infected” as it were.
Wow Jack
This is another point of view I agree and have been talking about here for the last few weeks….
Trends not numbers …..
But of course the numbers WILL still be posted and part of the conversation
The attempt is also political in nature ….
The CDC people admit their reported numbers aren’t necessarily on point….
As I have pointed out ….
Even Fauci now admits the way forward for the Biden admin is NOT based on science but on societal and economic reasons…..
…
Perhaps more than at any other time in the pandemic, Omicron has begun to reweight the conundrum voiced by Fauci — recasting the balance between economic, social and societal considerations and the purely medical justifications for sweeping public health guidance…
More…