This dog has been saying here that Donald Trump IS NOT holding his own politically across America…
As he fades from view?
His negatives increase…..
His approval among ALL Americans con times to decline , only looking good in comparison to Joe Biden’s , whose is slightly worst….
Going forward?
Republicans just got a wake call from the Virginia race….
Be careful how you deal with Trump’s interest in your campaign….
U might not need him to be tooooo close to ya….
It’s true that Trump has a lot of supporters, and many turned out for Youngkin. In the network exit poll, 42 percent of people who cast ballots in the Virginia gubernatorial race said they had a favorable view of the former president, and they voted almost unanimously for Youngkin. But these people were outnumbered by the 54 percent of respondents who expressed an unfavorable view of Trump. If that majority had voted for McAuliffe with anywhere near the same degree of unanimity, Youngkin would have lost. Instead, the Republican won by peeling away one of every six anti-Trump voters.
Pre-election polls in Virginia showed the same pattern. President Joe Biden’s favorable rating was about 50-50, but Trump’s favorable rating was consistently negative by about 15 percentage points. In the most recent Fox News poll that asked about Trump and Biden, taken in mid-October, independents viewed Biden unfavorably by nearly 10 points, but they viewed Trump unfavorably by 25 points. As for Trump’s base—voters who express a strongly favorable view of him—they’re outnumbered two-to-one in Virginia by voters who express a stronglyunfavorable view of him.
A survey taken two weeks ago by Cygnal, a Republican firm, illustrates the extent to which Youngkin relied on the anti-Trump vote. In that poll—which found that the Republican candidate had surged to a tie—McAuliffe was getting only 3 percent of his support from voters who expressed an unfavorable view of Biden. Youngkin, by contrast, was getting 16 percent of his support from voters who expressed an unfavorable view of Trump. Without those anti-Trump voters, Youngkin would have trailed badly….
I was wondering how Trump would deal with the emerging media stories raking away from Trump….
Sam Stein
Trump takes his victory lap, lol
“I would like to thank my BASE for coming out in force and voting for Glenn Youngkin. Without you, he would not have been close to winning.”
Gov.-elect Youngkin’s successful strategist, Jeff Roe, has a perceptive analysis of Tuesday’s election:
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/youngkin-va-gubernatorial-campaign-sets-blueprint-for-future-gop-elections/
He says that 25% of Black voters, most Latino voters and 55% of Asian-American voters voted for Youngkin. So turnout, and differential turnout, explain only part of the result (a 12.5% swing from Biden’20 to Youngkin)’21.
Youngkin, says Jeff Roe, concentrated on state issues like education (not just CRT) while McAuliffe concentrated too much on trying to link Trump to Youngkin.
Thus adding to my view that a relativity quiet Trump like now is fading in importance
A false conclusion.
This “analysis” pointedly fails to mention that the VAST majority of Youngkins vote came from Republicans who overwhelmingly support Trump.
They were his base.
Further, even many of Youngkins aides have said while Trump was kept at arms length publicly,Youngkin himself frequently was in contact with Trump personally.
Youngkin did a good job of threading a needle but any implication that his victory was not due to a heavy turnout by Trumpite Republicans is false.
He did a good job in perceptions ….
Yes…
So good that again?
People do NOT know what they are getting….
And YES….
I FEEL was so watered down that Democrats did NOT relate to Trump as a reason to come out…
It IS pointed out that Youngkin ‘supported’ Trump fleetingly but is NOT a Trumpite…
Yes GOP’s will vote for Trump…That is the GOP base… u’re right Jack…
I maintain that it HAS shrunk and the polls support my view
This is why I mention Trump IS fading….
Youngkin won because as the piece explains he took the marginal voters ALSO…
And THAT is always the ‘seat’ spot
(It is the reason Biden’s poll numbers are in the 40’s… his fine with Democrats)
Indeed there is a back and forth ALREADY from Trump saying the win was his when in fact the exit poll’s point OTHER issues and ole Terry’s mess ups…
We all agree this was complex and the man did a pretty good job helped by his opponents terrible campaign
If Trump runs in 2024?
Youngkin will support him.
Yes he will
But will Trump forget the dig’s he’s getting on Youngkin ‘playing him?’
Oh that’s an old game…
So and so won “because” …..
Without your “base?” You aren’t going to win.
And Youngkins “base” was the Trump Republicans.
Trump remains the single most influential person in the Republican Party.? Anyone who doesn’t recognize that?Is not even a serious person.
Yes, Youngkin obviously could not have won without increased support of the southern, western and rural Trump sympathizing voters. But that wasn’t enough; his margin was only 2.2% (50.7%-48.5%, a mirror image of Carter’s national victory over Ford in 1976). Biden had won last year by 10.1% (54.1-44.0).
I think that something besides differential turnout must have been necessary for Youngkin’s win, although a higher drop in turnout in blue counties than in red or purple ones must have played a big win.
[Compare, e.g., the number of Biden voters in Fairfax county with McAuliffe’21 voters, as compared to Trump vs Youngkin ones, which I scanned briefly at Dave Leip’s Atlas.]
But of the voters who turned out, 55% of Asian Virginians supported Youngkin, as did a majority of Latino Virginians and a quarter of Afro-Virginians.
McAuliffe thought that running against Trump and the Texas abortion law was enough. Obviously it wasn’t. Some Biden voters either flipped or (in disproportionate numbers to Trump voters) stayed home.
***
Fairfax County, Va
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. 419,943 69.89%
Donald J. Trump 168,401 28.03%
Terry R. McAuliffe 278,349 64.60%
Glenn A. Youngkin 149,807 34.77%
My only point is every election we read these “instant analysis” with questionable “percentages” of this or that groups voting.
Many question these type things.
In a close election ,one can point to a myriad of factors as to the outcome .However those here who like to read these supposed statistics as the gospel are welcome to do so.
The point is Youngkin is a Trump Republican who managed to thread a very narrow needle to victory backed np by a large turnout of Trump Republicans.
Even if one accepts all these supposed revelations as to how this or that group voted,without that turnout,he wouldn’t have won.
The ‘sweet spot’ is indies……
And Dem’s ARE hurting there right now and it just help cost them a governor’s race
Yes DSD…….
The ‘base’ simply wasn’t enough in blue to purple Virginia
AND AGAIN
FOR JOE BIDEN
And
Will NOT be enough for Dem’s wish to hold their slim majority in next years midterms
The party WILL HAVE TO play to the middle or slightly right to stop being ROLLED OVER,…
It IS THAT SIMPLE
Which i’m sure will be thrown at Jayapal and her crew who are in safe districts
Playing the “middle” won’t help.
If you “buy” Youngkins “analysis” that he got a quarter of the Black ,vote , most of the Hispanic vote and most of the Asian vote with the usual 60% or so of the White vote and that is repeated nationwide?
Then the Democrats are going to get “creamed” next year.
As I’ve previously stated ,I really question some of this “analysis.” Indeed if this analysis is correct, I would think that Youngkin should have won by a much larger margin than he did.
We can (as is customary here) spend a lot of time agreeing with each other, here, because I agree that Youngkin wouldn’t have had a prayer (and McAuliffe might have) without both a heavy rural Trump votes, and the ability either to neutralize or in some cases convert Biden voters.
In close elections (as in war or sports), everything matters and can be cited as the “real” cause, because the result might have differed without it. E.g. what was the “real cause” of Allied victory in World War II? Or the Confederacy’s failure?
There IS a good amount of black and hispanic right leaners as Democrats and Republicans…….
Remember
Left leaning DEM’s do NOT do WELL in SC presidential primaries, which is why Biden is the President
Dem’s MEED to come to the center
And Jayapal relented
And James (following James Carville) is basically wrong to blame former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, of all people (remember the 2016 pres. debates?) for losing by embracing fashionable but deeply-unpopular cultural crusades. McAuliffe (like re-elected Mpls Mayor Jacob Frey) never endorsed Defund The Police.
The one big exception is the right-wing’s concocted issue of Critical Race Theory, not because McAuliffe was too “woke” for the Old Dominion, but because he put his foot straight into Youngkin’s mouth with that debate quote about not allowing parents to decide their children’s education (a disastrous phrasing of not allowing them to rip “Beloved” out of school libraries) — while, at the same time, not addressing positively the underlying concern that the CRT canard exploits. I think that (with one possible exception) none of our regular contributors likes Political Correctness, or curricula that vindicate oppressed minorities by guilt-tripping straight white middle-class men — which is the mirror of the fake history we learned that called Reconstruction a tragedy for both races, or celebrated The Winning of the West (from its original inhabitants by fire, sword and poison).
He, he, he
I think both me and tha Cajun pointed to ole Terry running a lousy campaign IN GENERAL
Trite..
Ever time someone loses?
The common refrain?
He/She ran a “bad” campaign.
Trite?
Yup
But TRUE……
I know i sound like a broken record
But things ARE complex
Ole Terry had this in the bag but made SEVERAL mistake
SE points out that he has this as a history…
And YEA
The same refrain was used for Hillary’s loss cause she DID run a lousy campaign🙄
Looking for a red-region counter-example to all those suburbanites in Fairfax County, I picked the City of Lynchburg, home of Liberty University and the only Virginia city to avoid recapture by the Union before Appomattox.
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Democratic 18,048 49.63%
Donald J. Trump Republican 17,097 47.02%
Glenn A. Youngkin Republican 13,653 54.94%
Terry R. McAuliffe Democratic 10,971 44.14%
Gov. McAuliffe lost about 7,100 Biden voters in Lynchburg, while Gov.-elect Youngkin lost only about 3,500 Trump’20 voters.
On the regional comment?
Terry lost the marginal’s
And i did mention to Jack LESS GOPer’s went Republican
Excellent looks DSD!
Here’s a way to look at the 2021 VA race that I see not many others point out:
Rewinding back to his successful bid in 2013, both candidates in that race had solid negatives but McAuliffe only won a mix because he was more palatable to Suburbanites than then-Attorney General and culture warrior extraordinaire Ken Cuccinelli and because of the presence of a Libertarian who took some 5% of the vote in a race decided by a slim margin similar to last Tuesday’s results.
This time around, the Republican consolidated nearly all the non McAuliffe vote shares and the latter did not much better than his 48% back in 2013, in no small part because Youngkin deliberately struck the right pose to both win Suburbanites and neuter any potential for third party showings.
In a broader respect, McAuliffe ALWAYS was a terrible candidate. In 2009, he jumped into the D Primary for the Governorship and started out with the lead marshaling his vast resources and connections from his days in the Clinton WH and as DNC Chair. But that all came to naught in a race against more locally connected candidates, and he placed third in a field of 3, a major upset, though McAuliffe would have done a little better than that year’s nominee Creigh Deeds.
It is best to look at his original 2013 victory as a fluke attributable to certain particular circumstances.