Their guess is that things WILL get better going into the summer ….
Before the Midterm voting begins…..
“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better,” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research warns clients in a “2022 U.S. Economic Outlook.”
Driving the news: But Goldman expects the economy “to reaccelerate to a 4%+ growth pace over the next few quarters as the service sector continues to reopen, consumers spend part of their pent-up savings, and inventory restocking gets underway.”
- Goldman sees the unemployment rate — 4.6% in October — falling to “3.7% at mid-year and 3.5% — the pre-pandemic 50-year low — by end-2022.”…
On oil and gas prices and other things….
The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that oil supplies were catching up with demand, potentially easing upward pressure on prices. The agency, which is based in Paris, said that the oil market remained “tight by all measures, but a reprieve from the price rally could be on the horizon.”
A drop in oil prices would come as a relief to consumers, who have seen prices at the pump surge by nearly 50 percent over the past year. Home heating bills are also on track to be the highest in years. Higher energy prices also ripple through the economy, raising the cost of manufacturing and shipping all kinds of goods, and ultimately driving up prices for consumers.
Still, oil supply constraints are only one of an array of factors that have pushed inflation to its highest level in decades. Pandemic-driven shifts in work and spending have led to supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and other issues around the world, pushing up prices for many items. Many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, expect those forces to recede along with the pandemic, but that will take time…