Are Democrats walking their party over a cliff for the 2022/2024 Elections?

The New York Times features a Op-Ed piece by Ezra Klein that looks at a political modelling guy names David Shor….

Shor’s view IS that Democrat’s ARE about to lose BIG in the next few years and keep doing so for a while….

Why?

Because Shor says?

The Democratic Party is led by a head that that is NOT in touch with voters that can feed the body….

Shor, who is a model guy. and worked in the Obama campaign..

Is Not a numbers guy like Nate Silver …

He is increasing looking at blocks of voters in terms of education and CLASS….

Not in terns of color….

He believe’s that are catering to the wrong view of voters…..

He , like some of us , believe that Democrats CANNOT rest success on their own supporters….

They MUST vie for crossover/swing voters….Independent voters….

This IS an issue for Democrats right now….

 

In current polling President Biden IS LOSING Independent voters….

In Current polling President Biden is behind the eight ball on immigration…

Biden maybe entertaining pushes about climate change but Gass prices have risen….

 

Shor believe ‘s that Democrats in their quest to make progressives happy and dance with the media are sabatoging the 2022  Midterm votes and endangering Joe Biden’s re-election chances….

Shor’s suggestion for Democrats is this….

We KNOW ur Democrats….

We KNOW you want to help and ‘do the right thing’ for those who ain’t rich…

But?

Look under the covers at what you’re selling…

 

“Defund the police ‘ had white young progressives out in the streets for months ….

But?

Defund the police cost Biden and Democrats support among white, black and hispanic voters who ‘support’ having enough police to show up for 911 calls….

 

Immigration reform does NOT gain Biden much support among Latino’s and Hispanics….

Why?

Because those who get here legally , or who have been here a while do NOT want competition and resent others illegality….

Again…

Progressives push Biden along with the media, which help’s Trump and Co. go after Biden….

 

Biden and more and more Democrats are running on virus shot and mask mandates….

In Red states?

This is a political loser, even it has worked in Blue states….

 

Shor points education vs economics….

Rich/Middle class, Blue collar voters are NOT gonna vote like College educated ones who make the same amount of money…..

Biden won the suburbs….

But right now….

They seem to0 swinging back away from him as he entertains possible tax increase’s for the rich and maybe upper middle class….

 

Klein does NOT say Democrats should abandon progressive’s….

Nor does Schor….

They both acknowledge that the US Senate and the Electoral college DOES give Republicans an advantage against Democrats ….

Because of their make-ups and things like the filibuster ?

Hard  majorities for Democrats will be hard to come by ….

Democrats have Blue states…

But?

Republicans have the geography of vast Red state’s , except their big cities to cut Democratic votes…

And of course Republicans have voter suppression and redistricting ….

 

Both guys point to a common sense path for Democrats….

Use the Obama playbook…

Dance with the left within ur party…

But looking outward?

Go quiet on things that can hurt your vote….

(If you win?…You can change policy…You can’t if you LOSE ….No matter how much some in your party may be happy with)

Go hard on things that matter to the MOST amount of voters…

And Yes?

That includes some voters in swing states that might NOT agree with a crazy assed Republican that just lost his job as President….

 

But in the end?

It maybe Donald J. Trump that could be the Democrats saviour…

As he did in Georgia?

His fumbling, chaotic , illegal and egomaniac self maybe the reason Democratic and other voters come out again to vote AGAINST Him and all he owns…..

Which is why Trump’s handlers do NOT want him announcing a 2024 Presidential run right now….

 

President Biden’s agenda is in peril. Democrats hold a bare 50 seats in the Senate, which gives any member of their caucus the power to block anything he or she chooses, at least in the absence of Republican support. And Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are wielding that leverage ruthlessly.

But here’s the truly frightening thought for frustrated Democrats: This might be the high-water mark of power they’ll have for the next decade.

Democrats are on the precipice of an era without any hope of a governing majority. The coming year, while they still control the House, the Senate and the White House, is their last, best chance to alter course. To pass a package of democracy reforms that makes voting fairer and easier. To offer statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. To overhaul how the party talks and acts and thinks to win back the working-class voters — white and nonwhite — who have left them behind the electoral eight ball. If they fail, they will not get another chance. Not anytime soon.

That, at least, is what David Shor thinks. Shor started modeling elections in 2008, when he was a 16-year-old blogger, and he proved good at it. By 2012, he was deep inside President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, putting together the fabled “Golden Report,” which modeled the election daily. The forecast proved spookily accurate: It ultimately predicted every swing state but Ohio within a percentage point and called the national popular vote within one-tenth of a percentage point. Math-geek data analysts became a hot item for Democratic Party campaigns, and Shor was one of the field’s young stars, pioneering ways to survey huge numbers of Americans and experimentally test their reactions to messages and ads….

…

We’re screwed in the Senate, he said. Only he didn’t say “screwed.”

In 2022, if Senate Democrats buck history and beat Republicans by four percentage points in the midterms, which would be a startling performance, they have about a 50-50 chance of holding the majority. If they win only 51 percent of the vote, they’ll likely lose a seat — and the Senate.

But it’s 2024 when Shor’s projected Senate Götterdämmerung really strikes. To see how bad the map is for Democrats, think back to 2018, when anti-Trump fury drove record turnout and handed the House gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. Senate Democrats saw the same huge surge of voters. Nationally, they won about 18 million more votes than Senate Republicans — and they still lost two seats. If 2024 is simply a normal year, in which Democrats win 51 percent of the two-party vote, Shor’s model projects a seven-seat loss, compared with where they are now.

Sit with that. Senate Democrats could win 51 percent of the two-party vote in the next two elections and end up with only 43 seats in the Senate….

…

We tend to think of class as driven by income, but in terms of how it’s formed and practiced in America right now, education tracks facets that paychecks miss. A high school dropout who owns a successful pest extermination company in the Houston exurbs might have an income that looks a lot like a software engineer’s at Google, while an adjunct professor’s will look more like an apprentice plumber’s. But in terms of class experience — who they know, what they believe, where they’ve lived, what they watch, who they marry and how they vote, act and protest — the software engineer is more like the adjunct professor.

Either way, the sorting that educational polarization is picking up, inexact as the term may be, puts Democrats at a particular disadvantage in the Senate, as college-educated voters cluster in and around cities while non-college voters are heavily rural. This is why Shor believes Trump was good for the Republican Party, despite its losing the popular vote in 2016, the House in 2018 and the Senate and the presidency in 2020. “Sure, maybe he underperforms the generic Republican by whatever,” Shor said. “But he’s engineered a real and perhaps persistent bias in the Electoral College, and then when you get to the Senate, it’s so much worse.” As he put it, “Donald Trump enabled Republicans to win with a minority of the vote.”…

…

We tend to think of class as driven by income, but in terms of how it’s formed and practiced in America right now, education tracks facets that paychecks miss. A high school dropout who owns a successful pest extermination company in the Houston exurbs might have an income that looks a lot like a software engineer’s at Google, while an adjunct professor’s will look more like an apprentice plumber’s. But in terms of class experience — who they know, what they believe, where they’ve lived, what they watch, who they marry and how they vote, act and protest — the software engineer is more like the adjunct professor.

Either way, the sorting that educational polarization is picking up, inexact as the term may be, puts Democrats at a particular disadvantage in the Senate, as college-educated voters cluster in and around cities while non-college voters are heavily rural. This is why Shor believes Trump was good for the Republican Party, despite its losing the popular vote in 2016, the House in 2018 and the Senate and the presidency in 2020. “Sure, maybe he underperforms the generic Republican by whatever,” Shor said. “But he’s engineered a real and perhaps persistent bias in the Electoral College, and then when you get to the Senate, it’s so much worse.” As he put it, “Donald Trump enabled Republicans to win with a minority of the vote.”…

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Shor believes the party has become too unrepresentative at its elite levels to continue being representative at the mass level. “I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the people we’ve lost are likely to be low-socioeconomic-status people,” he said. “If you look inside the Democratic Party, there are three times more moderate or conservative nonwhite people than very liberal white people, but very liberal white people are infinitely more represented. That’s morally bad, but it also means eventually they’ll leave.” The only way out of this, he said, is to “care more and cater to the preference of our low-socioeconomic-status supporters.”…

…

“In the summer, following the emergence of ‘defund the police’ as a nationally salient issue, support for Biden among Hispanic voters declined,” Shor said in a March interview with New York magazine. “So I think you can tell this microstory: We raised the salience of an ideologically charged issue that millions of nonwhite voters disagreed with us on. And then, as a result, these conservative Hispanic voters who’d been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites.”…

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Shor’s critics argue that he’s too focused on the popularity of what Democrats say, rather than the enthusiasm it can unleash. When pressed, Podhorzer called this theory “viralism” and pointed to Trump as an example of what it can see that popularism cannot. “A lot of things Trump did were grossly unpopular but got him enormous turnout and support from the evangelical community,” Podhorzer said. “Polling is blind to that. Politics isn’t just saying a thing at people who’re evaluating it rationally. It’s about creating energy. Policy positions don’t create energy.”

Podhorzer also pointed to Biden: “He’s done much more than I thought he’d be able to do. All the things he’s doing are popular. And yet he’s underwater.”

What does create energy, Podhorzer thinks, is fear of the other side. His view is that Democrats’ best chance, even now, is to mobilize their base against Trump and everything he represents. “The challenge in 2022 is to convince people that they’re again voting on whether or not the country is going in a Trumpist direction,” he said….

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