Former Democratic Virginia Governor McAuliffe WAS causing ahead ….
Was….
But polling has the race close now…..
The polls with the just registered voters has McAuliffe ahead though….
Early voting has begun….
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Virginia gubernatorial race from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up” on Friday, just over a month from Election Day.
The development comes as polls show the race, which is widely viewed as a barometer for next year’s midterm elections, is becoming increasingly close.
A University of Mary Washington survey released on Wednesday found Republican Glenn Youngkin leading former Virginia Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. McAuliffe led Youngkin 43 percent to 38 percent among all registered voters.
Another poll released this week, conducted by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, found McAuliffe leading Youngkin 46 percent to 42 percent. And a Washington Post-Schar School survey released last week showed McAuliffe leading Youngkin by three points, 50 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters….
CNN’s list of the 10 tightest Senate races in 2022:
1. R- Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey retiring
2. D- Georgia: Ralph Warnock (elected 2020)
3. R- Wisconsin: Ron Johnson
4. D – Arizona: Mark Kelly (elected 2020)
5. R- North Carolina: Richard Burr retiring
6. D- New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
7. D- New Mexico: Catherine Cortez Masto
8. R- Marco Rubio
9. R- Ohio: Rob Portman retiring
10. R- Roy Blunt retiring
Detailed commentary and map at
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/24/politics/senate-race-rankings-september/index.html
DSD–Catherine Cortez Masto is Sen. from Nevada, not New Mexico
and it looks like you omitted Blunt’s state–Missouri.
Correct on both counts, Scott.
Never overestimate your wakefulness while blogging.
I agree with the top 7, maybe 8 if the DeSantis race at the top of the FL ticket actually gets tight. The last two aren’t even legitimate considerations.
Seems the poll that had McAuliffe and Youngkin close was an outlier…..
The ex-Governor is probably on his way to getting his old job back….
They’re voting already there….
…
McAuliffe Keeps Lead In Virginia
A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) maintains a 7-percentage point lead over Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor, 48% to 41% with 9% still undecided.
Virginia Gov race Update RRH…
Governor:
VA-Gov I: Two new, virtually identical Virginia polls were released yesterday showing the governor’s race a tie. Emerson College and Cygnal‘s polls both show the Virginia governor’s race tied at 48%, with Liberation Party Candidate Princess Blanding polling at 1%. The Cygnal poll of 816 likely voters was conducted October 19-21. It has a margin of error of +/-3.43%. Emerson College’s poll of 875 very likely voters was taken October 22-23, 2021. It has a credibility interval of +/- 3.2. Emerson also found that about 55% of likely voters think Democrat Terry McAuliffe will win.
(Early voting has been going on for a while there and polls up this point have McAuliffe ahead any a small margin as does the RCP average…)
For several decades since becoming two-party competitive — with one exception (2012/13) — Virginia would elect her Governor from the party opposing the party of the President elected in the previous (even-numbered) year.
Were that to hold again, it would favour Youngkin.
1976 – Carter (D); 1977 – John Dalton (R)
1980- Reagan (R); 1981 – Chuck Robb (D)
1984 – Reagan (R); 1985 – Gerald Baliles (D)
1988 – GHW Bush (R); 1989 – Doug Wilder (D)
1992 – W. Clinton (D); 1993 – George Allen (R)
1996 – W. Clinton (D); 1997 – Jim Gilmore (R)
2000 – GW Bush (R); 2001 – Mark Warner (D)
2004 – GW Bush (R); 2005 – Tim Kaine (D)
2008 – Obama (D); 2009 -Bob McDonnell (D)
2012 – Obama (D); 2013 – Terry McAuliffe (D)
2016 – Trump (R); 2017 – Ralph Northam (D)
2020 – Biden (D); 2021 – ? ? (?)
[And yes, in the previous list, I left out the state from 10. R- Missouri: Roy Blunt retiring.]
And for 2009 above, after “2008 – Obama (D)”, I should have labelled Bob McDonnell (R) rather than (D).
Never blog while sleepy.