Update…
That was a while ago…
He’s now opened as much as double digit lead in polling to keep his job….
| Monday, September 13 |
| Race/Topic (Click to Sort) | Poll | Results | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 California Governor Recall Election | Trafalgar Group (R) | Yes, Remove 45, No, Do Not Remove 53 | No, Do Not Remove +8 |
| 2021 California Governor Recall Election | Emerson | Yes, Remove 40, No, Do Not Remove 60 | No, Do Not Remove +20 |
….
This is a slippage for the Democratic Governor if the polling is correct….
The undecided number is only 3%….
The latest Emerson College and Nexstar Media’s “Inside California Politics” poll shows support for the effort to oust Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom has grown in recent weeks as the state has experienced an increase in COVID-19 transmission.
Opponents of the governor drew attention to his handling of the pandemic and collected enough signatures to secure a special election to recall Newsom on September 14.
The new poll results released on Tuesday found support for the recall at 46%, up from 43% in the previous poll from July 20, two weeks ago. However, 48% said they opposed the recall, and 6% of likely voters are undecided, pollsters found, adding that the number of undecided voters had fallen 3%.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Californians and was conducted from July 30 to August 1. It has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Newsom’s approval rating fell from 49% last month to 48% in the current poll. In addition, 42% said they disapproved of Newsom’s job performance, while 10% were unsure or had no opinion….
What will the turnout be? What kind of people will show up to vote? This looks far closer than it was expected to be.
California is a very liberal state. It has recalled a Democrat Governor before not all that long ago. It there really motivation among Democrats to show up just to save Newsom?
In Wisconsin, a few years back, there was absolutely motivation for Republicans to show up and save Scott Walker when he faced recall.
The fact that there are a bunch of Republican candidates pretty much not really making much news is working against Newsom. He does not really have anyone to focus on, making the matter all about him. There was something about how Newsom’s campaign messed up and did not have him file as a Democrat, so that label will not even appear on the ballot for him.
But if somehow the recall passes, one of those Republicans will become Governor. Democrats did not put up an option B, as they did in the Gray Davis recall.
I am at a loss as to why Larry Elder has become the leading alternative, besides perhaps motivation for some to see the state elect its first African-American (or non-white) Governor.
A new SurveyUSA poll out today now shows the Recall ahead 51-40.
Newsom has a huge problem if these polls are close to true.
Now interestingly, they have the unknown Democrat, who is advocating a yes vote on the Recall, ahead of the field with 27%, simply because he has the D next to his name. I suppose in theory this fairly anonymous anti-Newsom Democrat could become Governor. Larry Elder is fairly close behind with 23% though. (I would prefer Faulconer or Ose myself)
Keith has stated that he will vote for Caitlyn Jenner in the recall replacement vote. Larry Elder will appreciate that.
If SurveyUSA is correct, either this guy or Larry Elder is about to become Governor of California in a couple months.
This “Democrat” sounds a bit like a Trumpist.
https://www.meetkevin.com/
If this nobody becomes Governor just because he was the only one to run with a D next to his name, it is the smartest political strategy in generations.
I find all this and how fast it is moving away from Newsom to be pretty remarkable politically. Could the polls be way wrong? 51-40 in favor now?
Is it really Newsom or bust for Democrats? Is there any possibility for any sort of prominent Democrat to run as a write-in? The current Lt. Gov has a hard name to spell.
Could a relatively moderate Republican like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer now embark on a strategy of saying, “Look Democrats, it’s over for Newsom. Vote yes or no on the Recall but if it passes, as looks likely, I am the only thing standing behind a Trumpist and a complete novice as Governor. You better vote for me.”
Detractors of the SurveyUSA poll are saying that there are a few more unknown gadfly Democrats running that were not included in the Survey so Paffrath likely has an inflated number since he was the only option given as a Democrat, and thus Larry Elder is likely ahead overall.
I’d say the poll is an outlier….
Newsom ahead by a small margin
It IS a Democratic state
Could be an outlier, but polls are all moving in the same direction, all away fro, Newsom. The motivation is all on the side to get rid of him, They cannot be feeling good about those trends.
Democrats messed up big time in not having a viable option as an insurance policy on the second question.
If this is true and if trends hold, we are looking at a potential political clusterf&4# beyond all recognition.
Lets see what shakes out in more polls….
The vote is Sept 14th
RCP California Recall Average….
Yes, Remove….48.0
No, Do Not Remove 46.0
People can critique Newsome all day, and some of it is probably valid. I can’t imagine a more difficult job than the one he’s got, though, sans maybe Biden’s. They really should split the state into halves or thirds.
Biden & Co. reach out to help Newsom….
…On Thursday, the White House upped its engagement and sent a strong signal of its intention to fight on Newsom’s behalf, with Biden for the first time directly urging California voters to reject the attempt to throw his fellow Democrat out of office.
“He knows how to get the job done because he’s been doing it,” the president said, citing Newsom’s efforts to fight the pandemic and address the damage caused by climate change, among other actions. “To keep him on the job, registered California voters should vote ‘no’ on the recall election by Sept. 14 and keep California moving forward.”…
More…
Two weeks out….
Dem Gov Newsom seems to be inline to keep his job….
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will campaign with California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this week ahead of a recall election that will decide his political future, according to Politico’s California Playbook PM.
Warren’s trip comes roughly a week ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election that will give California voters the chance to keep Newsom in office or replace him.
Forty-six Republican candidates have lined up to replace Newsom, with conservative radio host Larry Elder emerging in polls as the front-runner.
More….
Unless the roof falls in?
Newsom is looking like a lock to keep his job….
Oh And?… Elder is coming apart at the seems….
Big Majority Oppose Recall of Gavin Newsom
A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds just 39% of Californians want to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), while 58% are opposed.
Sorry Scott….
U did this first ….
Mail-In Ballots Look Good for Gavin Newsom
Joshua Spivak looks at the mail-in balloting in the California recall election and sees mostly good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) so far — with a few caveats.
Crusin…..
Betting Markets Swing In Favor of Gavin Newsom
“The campaign to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum in the past month that bettors now say there’s over an 85% chance that the effort fails,” CNBC reports.
“According to political betting website PredictIt, the Democrat’s odds of staying in office after the recall election on Sept. 14, reached their highest mark last week since early July.”
Less rhan a week out from election day in California and the Governor out there seems about to get a vote of approval to keep his job….
Elder the top Republican, seems to be coming apart
Piece by piece….
Gavin Newsom IS gonna have a good Tuesday…..
The Boston Mayoral preliminary (= primary) election is also next Tuesday.
So far as I can tell, Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu is certain to win one of the spots, and the most likely alternative will not be Acting Mayor Kim Janey but City Councilor Adrian Campbell (both of the latter are black women).
I watched both debates (both available on YouTube) but didn’t see any obvious effects, except perhaps lifting John Barros.
Anna Essaibi George is whit with relatively conservative-moderate views compared to the others. John Barros (who’s black and a former member of ex-Mayor Marty Walsh’s administration) may have benefitted from the debates to rise above his anaemic 5% in the latest poll. Interestingly enough he considers the $130 million currently spent on cross-town school bussing would be better spent elsewhere, e.g. on improving neighbourhood schools and their collapsing infrastucture.
Friday, September 10
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
2021 California Governor Recall Election Berkeley IGS/LA Times Yes, Remove 39, No, Do Not Remove 60 No, Do Not Remove +21
RCP….
Monday, September 13
Race/Topic Poll Results Spread
2021 California Governor Recall Election Emerson Yes, Remove 40, No, Do Not Remove 60 No, Do Not Remove +20
RCP…
I just saw the leading Republican candidate for Governor, Larry Elder, on television saying that there’s vote fraud. Not really a good tactic to turn out people here that tend to vote in-person rather than by mail. We’ve had our ballots in for weeks, and the same for most Democratic strongholds in California.
I will be down in Oakland working a precinct today, so won’t be around. I just wanted to point out that if Elder, the man the term “Uncle Tom” was invented for, actually comes in first among the candidates running to replace the Governor, then he’s the Republican Candidate for Governor in next year’s election. And then, the Republicans are truly fucked in this State, especially if Feinstein retires early and it’s an all Democratic General to replace her (and it will be).
If Larry Elder and John “the Bear” Cox are the best these Neo-Nazis have got to offer my State then they should pack up and move to Arizona.
Have a good day everyone, and get vaccinated James. You are part of the problem.
Boston preliminaty mayoral election with 1% counted (2 go on to general election in November):
City Councillor Michelle Wu 42%
City Councillor Andrea Campbell 23%
City Councillor Annisa Essaibi-George 21%
Acting Mayor Kim Janey 10%
Wu is Asian-American, Campbell and Janey are African American, and Essaibi George has Palestinian-Arab and Polish roots. All are women.
Decision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQ
The California recall election is the big story of the night, but we are covering other elections as well. We have mayoral primaries in Boston and Cleveland plus state legislative specials in Iowa and Tennessee.
https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-california-gubernatorial-recall-boston-and-cleveland-mayoral-elections-and-more/
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
The exits show “no” up by around 18 points or so.
If so, those early Newsom votes may be enough to yield an early call
https://cnn.com/election/2021/exit-polls/california/recall
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
Newsom is 55-43 approve-disapprove among recall voters, according to preliminary exit polls. Elder meanwhile is 34-50 favorable-unfavorable. https://53eig.ht/3nzKM7u
Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
Over 1 mil votes counted in #CAGOV (2018 total was 12 mil) and no on recall up 61-39 https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2021-09-14/state/CA/race/I/raceid/8808
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
We have results from four counties now, and so far Newsom’s running 5 points ahead of his 2018 showing. If that holds statewide, it would give him around 67 percent of this first wave of ballots
(and fwiw, Biden ran about 5 points ahead of his final result in the early 2020 vote)
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
I’ve seen enough: the vote to recall CA Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) fails.
An incredible waste of California tax payers money….
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
We now have 13 counties with early vote, and “no” is at 65% of the vote, v. 59 percent for Newsom in 2018. And so far, these tallies represent 69 percent of 2018 turnout levels
Wow!
California , the state closed 21m ago and has more results then Boston which closed 3 HOURS ago?
Decision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQ
Decision Desk HQ projects Gavin Newsom will be retained as governor of California.
Race Called At: 8:21 PM (Pacific)
Erin Tiernan
@ErinTiernan
Andrea Campbell arrives to her results party in Dorchester to cheers, but tells supports to “hold you heads up high” as she offers her concession speech.
“It’s not the result we wanted. It’s not the result we expected.” #bospoli
@bostonherald
Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
Now at 5.8 mil votes in for #CAGOV, and No on recall up 70-30.
Biden doing well in California…..
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
Preliminary exit polls also say that President Biden has a 56% approval rating in California. It definitely helps Newsom that the president is holding his own in California. It’s a sign that the Democratic brand is still strong in the state. https://53eig.ht/3AchLCh
PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Our early numbers for the general election in Boston
Quote Tweet
Priorities for Progress
@PrioritiesMass
· 3h
PFP/@ppppolls of 522 likely voters
MOE +/- 4.3% conducted Sept 11-12
Substack post now live with the head to heads – @wutrain vs. @Kim_Janey, @andreaforboston & @AnnissaForBos
Wu 45%
Janey 29%
Wu 38%
Campbell 35%
Wu 48%
AEG 28%
(4/) #bospoli
https://pfpma.substack.com/p/1st-boston-mayoral-final-poll-part-506
and Capmbel just dropped out…..
Wu is gonna be on top for the face off….
She’s already addressed crowds confidently….
Michelle Wu was the first to declare victory in tonight’s preliminary, saying she’s “confident” she’ll be one of the two candidates on the ballot in November’s historic mayoral election.
“I’m overjoyed to share with you in our home neighborhood of Roslindale that we are confident that we are in the top two,” Wu told several hundred supporters who gathered at Distraction Brewing Co. to watch as the results came in….
More…
The two top races are essentially called……
Catch ya in the morning…..
Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
7.4 mil votes in and No on recall up 68-32 #CAgov
Trouble for Democrats next year?
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
According to the California exit poll, Newsom fared better among white college graduates than nonwhite voters in the state.
Newsom isn’t even faring better among Latino than non-Latino voters
Boston’s count is unusually slow because a precinct won’t be reported until all of the votes are counted, and officials need to verify that an in-person voter didn’t also cast a ballot by mail or at a drop-box before 8 p.m.
Only 0.4% of the precincts have been announced so far.
Newsom crushes Elderlarry.
City Councilors Michelle Wu and Annissa Essaibi George appear set to face off in the Nov. 2 general election for mayor [of Boston] after claiming the top two spots in Tuesday’s preliminary race, setting up a historic contest between two women of color who stand at opposite ends of the political spectrum, in what will become a new era in Boston.
Both women announced they had secured a slot in the final, while Acting Mayor Kim Janey and Councilor Andrea Campbell made statements saying it appeared they had fallen short.
The declarations of victory and defeat were made by the candidates themselves, and not city officials, as part of a bizarre preliminary election night in which election officials delayed posting any results hours after the polls closed. The officials said that they were still counting some 7,000 ballots that were received by mail or drop box by Tuesday’s 8 p.m. deadline, and that they planned to verify and tally them throughout the night.
But Wu, the front-runner in polls, expressed confidence to her supporters just after 10 p.m., even as the city election site showed nothing but zeroes. She said she was sure she had claimed one of the top two spots to move on to the final. The individual campaigns had gathered and tallied voting numbers from each precinct before the city had released them, and said their tallies showed that Wu’s victory was inevitable….
By Milton J. Valencia
Boston Globe Staff,
Updated September 15, 2021, 1:06 a.m
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/14/metro/hard-fought-race-bostons-mayoral-field-will-be-cut-down-two/
With 43% of Boston’s vote in (AP):
BOSTON MAYORAL PRELIMINARY
UPDATE IN 9
43.14% Reporting
Michelle Wu
36.3% 16,798 votes
Annissa Essaibi George
21.2% 9,827 votes
Andrea Campbell
19.2% 8,871 votes
Kim Janey
17.9% 8,284 votes
John Barros
3.2% 1,473 votes
Not so fast — Acting Boston Mayor Kim Janey is now second (not fourth) in the preliminary Mayoral election to face Michelle Wu in November.
But the remaining fifth of the ballots may swing another way, with margins so close.
80.39% Reporting
Michelle Wu
31.4% 26,924 votes
Kim Janey
22.2% 19,072 votes
Andrea Campbell
20.7% 17,717 votes
Annissa Essaibi George
20.6% 17,696 votes
John Barros
3.5% 2,983 votes
Source: AP