While he had trouble with Hispanics/Latinos in certain places?
Joe Biden toke most of their vote OVERALL nationally….
Could his just being President help him more in 2024?
The past polling numbers seem to say yes….
Hispanic voters were one of President Joe Biden’s biggest weaknesses in the 2020 election. Although sources differ on his exact margin, Biden’s advantage with Hispanics was the worst for a Democratic presidential nominee since 2004 — even as he had the strongest performance overall for a Democrat since 2008.
A look at recent history and polling reveals, however, that Biden may be primed for a comeback among Hispanics for a simple reason: He’s now the incumbent.
Take a look at Gallup polling during the Biden presidency. Aggregating all the polls it has conducted so far (in order to get a large sample size), Biden’s approval rating with Hispanics stands at 72% compared to a 55% overall approval rating.
That 72% is a clear improvement from how Biden did in the election with Hispanics. Biden won 65% of Hispanics, according to the network exit polls. An estimate from the Democratic firm Catalist (which lines up well with what we saw in pre-election polls) had Biden taking 61% of Hispanics. So this Gallup data suggests Biden’s support may be up anywhere from 7 to 11 points from the election….
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Recent incumbents seem to see their support among Hispanics rise in their reelection bids. In fact, the last five incumbents since George H.W. Bush did better with Hispanics than they did when they were elected to their first term…
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We saw the same phenomenon with Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2020. They both performed worse overall in their reelection campaigns, but did better with Hispanic voters. Trump went from losing them by 39 points in the 2016 Catalist data to losing them by 25 points in 2020, even as he lost the popular vote by 4.5 points instead of 2.1 points….