Andrew Yang led up to a few weeks ago….
He’s now probably tied with Eric Adams ….
Here’s FiveThirtyEight on things….
Polls show a traffic jam in New York City
Front-runners among recent polls asking respondents to choose their first-choice candidate in the Democratic primary for New York City’s mayor
| DATES | POLLSTER | SAMPLE | ADAMS | YANG | GARCIA | STRINGER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23-24 | Emerson College | 570 LV | 20% | 16% | 21% | 10% |
| May 17-20 | Slingshot Strategies* | 749 LV | 16 | 19 | 10 | 13 |
| May 15-19 | Core Decision Analytics | 800 LV | 18 | 13 | 11 | 7 |
| Average | 18 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
After spending much of the race as the first choice of at least 20 percent — sometimes even 30 percent — of voters, Yang has fallen back into the teens and is roughly tied with Adams … and with Garcia, who is now polling in the double digits even according to a Yang internal poll. (In fact, the most recent poll, from Emerson College/PIX11 News, showed Garcia getting 21 percent of first-choice votes and winning the Democratic nomination after 11 rounds of instant runoffs. However, so far, this poll is an outlier.)
Garcia’s dramatic improvement is most likely thanks to her May 10 endorsement by the New York Times editorial board. Pollster Change Research was in the field May 6-12 and found that 4 percent of respondents picked Garcia as their first choice before the Times endorsement, but 11 percent did so after it. Normally, newspaper endorsements don’t affect how people vote, but they can still be valuable under certain circumstances, such as in primaries, like New York City’s, where voters can’t fall back on their partisan preferences, local races where the candidates aren’t very well known or elections where lots of voters are undecided. (Another major development in the mayoral race in recent weeks has been an allegation of sexual assault against Stringer. However, May polls have pegged him everywhere from 7 percent to 15 percent of first-choice votes, so it’s unclear whether the scandal has hurt him.)….
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