Let’s start with the Census….
You notice that almost ALL the good stuff in the first numbers are for Republicans?
They are being population movement TO RED states AWAY from BLUE states….
While means they are gonna lose US House seats…
The Blue wave of 2018 Midterms turned into a nothing last November …
Joe Biden had NO US House coattails….
He did have US Senate ones….
The Democratic majority in the Senate is Vice President Harris….
The Democratic majority in the House stands at 6 …..
History tells us also that a majority party with both houses of Congress and the Presidency can expect to lose some of the majority in Congress in the next national vote…
It appear’s THAT maybe the case…
Let add to all the above the movement by state Republicans to increase voter suppression restrictions….
The one Ace that Democrats have right now in the popularity of President Joe Biden…
But?
How lang does that last?
A how deep is it?
The challenges for Democrats have come into clearer focus in recent days.
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D), who narrowly won reelection last year in a western Illinois district that former President Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020, said on Friday that she will leave Congress after her current term. She joins two other House Democrats, Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) and Filemon Vela(Texas), in announcing retirement plans.
With Bustos out, six Democratic incumbents are set to go up for reelection next year in districts that Trump carried in 2020.
There are likely more Democratic retirements to come. Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) is expected to announce plans on Tuesday to run for Florida governor, potentially leaving open a Pinellas County swing district that Republicans had held for decades before Crist was elected in 2016….
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Democrats saw their majority in the House shrink to one of the smallest margins in decades after a worse-than-expected performance in 2020. Twelve of their members were defeated by Republicans, while every GOP incumbent held their seat.
“We were all expecting to gain seats last year too, and that’s when we were playing offense,” one Democratic strategist who worked on key races in 2020 said. “We’re on the other side of things now, so yeah, there are some reasons to be wary about next year.”
Democrats now claim a six-seat advantage in the lower chamber, though that edge will soon temporarily increase to seven seats when Rep.-elect Troy Carter (D-La.) is sworn in to serve out the remainder of former Rep. Cedric Richmond’s (D-La.) term.
Other upcoming special elections may alter that margin slightly, but Democrats will have little room for error if they hope to preserve their House majority in 2022, and history tends to side against the president’s party in midterm elections. Democrats lost seats in both midterm elections while former President Obama was in office. Republicans lost their majority in 2018, two years after Trump won the White House.
Democrats’ midterms strategy this time around bets heavily on the notion that voters will reward the party’s lawmakers for passing a tranche of far-reaching legislation they say will prove transformative, especially as the country begins to pull itself out of the coronavirus pandemic….
Another issue for House Democrats….
A special election to replace the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) will be held early next year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said on Tuesday.
DeSantis, who has remained silent for weeks on when voters could expect to elect Hastings’s successor, announced that primaries in Florida’s 20th Congressional District will take place on Nov. 2, with a general election being held on Jan. 11.
Hastings’s district is considered safe territory for Democrats, and the party’s eventual nominee is likely to win the general election next year. But the schedule for the special election means that residents of Florida’s 20th, a majority Black district in South Florida, will have to wait at least another eight months for representation in Washington.
The timeline set by DeSantis flies in the face of calls from local officials and candidates for the seat who have urged him to hold the election quickly….
More…