Any conversation about the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election inevitably veers to former President Trump, including the role he will play and whether the Republican Party will functionally be an extension of him, for better or for worse. My hunch is that Trumpism in all of its potency is here for the foreseeable future, and that it will outlast him as a force in the party and country.
There are few signs that many Republicans have turned on Trump. His overall image rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is little diminished. There are clear signs that the enthusiasm for him—in other words, his force as a person—is waning, but there are no signs that his message and positions on key issues are similarly losing that intensity of support…
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Sifting through a mountain of recent data measuring the intensity of Republicans’ feelings toward Trump drew me to Economist/YouGov polling (not one of my favorite surveys, but they do ask the question I was looking for more regularly than any other). Among all Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, the share rating him “very favorable” through dozens of polls last year normally landed in the mid-60s to mid-70s, reaching as high as 78 percent. Since late February, however, that number landed in the 50s in seven out of eight polls—with the lowest at 55 percent and the highest at 61 percent. The share of Republicans viewing him negatively increased only a little; the shift was primarily from very favorable to somewhat favorable.
Longtime and wise political analyst Jeff Greenfield argued in Politico Magazine and in a podcast with Ryan Lizza that any suggestion of a GOP civil war between the pro- and anti-Trump forces was wrong—that it was really more of a purge of officials who were not loyal to Trump. I was persuaded by Greenfield’s argument, though I did disagree with some of it.
The decline of GOP enthusiasm and intensity for Trump, even while Republicans have not totally turned against him, suggests that he is increasingly seen as a quirky personality—a flawed vehicle for a powerful message that is showing no signs of abatement—and that a post-Trump Trumpism is on the horizon….
“Longtime and wise political analyst Jeff Greenfield argued in Politico Magazine and in a podcast with Ryan Lizza that any suggestion of a GOP civil war between the pro- and anti-Trump forces was wrong—that it was really more of a purge of officials who were not loyal to Trump.”
Trumpism sans Trump is still very scary, as were Stalinism after Stalin, Maoism after Mao and the Islamic Revolution after Khomenei.
They lived on because their ruling classes kept tight control of many layers of politics, society, culture and indoctrination, which fortunately is (so far) hardly assured for Trumpism after Trump, at least at the national level (although some state governments, allied with political and religious evangelism, would drift that way were they legally independent of the federal government).
Charlie Cook?
I did an abbreviated summary of much of what Cook says here yesterday.( see my comment underRepublicans join Trump in AlternateUniverse @11:33)
In response James replied that 35 Republicans voted for the Commission in the House which proved I was wrong.
Today?He agrees with Charlie Cook but not me yesterday.
New day?..New View
But Charlie Cook leans toward the view that the GOP doesn’t have a civil war, but rather, instead, a purge.
Of course (and not for crass partisan advantage) I wish there were a GOP civil war, since the Grand Old Party needs to be purged of much pollution and irrationality, but my head doesn’t always follow my heart.
Another example of how the Republican Party has taken on many aspects of the old Communist Party of the Soviet Union where “purges” occurred often at the whims of the Leader.
Here,Trump is in the role of Stalin.
And while no one is being literally killed.Many are being exiled to political Siberia.The latest?Liz Cheney.
In fact Jack we’ve debated two different things….
My view HAS been Cook’s….
Donald J. Trump himself is shrinking away….
Has been since November 4th….
Cook just provides the proof in numbers much better then I ever could….
Your point , if I have this right ?
Is Trumpism remains?….
Sure vestiges of it WILL remain….
As Cook & Co. point out…
The residue now is maybe what McCarthy said about Cheney…
Ya have to dance with us ‘no matter what’…
Something she tracks back to in the interview …
Even as she chips aways at Trump…
Who with a LOT of others, but whose numbers ARE declining, ARE in an Alternate Universe….
We are talking about two serrate things…
Cook clarified it for me…
Thanks Charlie….
BTW?
The ‘purge’ will probably help DeSantis more than Trump who I think will be busy paying lawyers while he fights a million legal battles trying to keep his money, business and butt….
The ‘purge’ also is happening just about in Red states…
Not Blue….
They are eating their own…
Have been since Trump showed up….
If the purge helps any Republicans (And that is not obvious to me), it helps Trump the most.
My view is Trump himself is gonna too busy elsewhere ….
Republicans Are United on Power
Paul Waldman: “On the surface, the GOP is a party in disarray. Party leaders in Congress struggle to deal with elected nutballs such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Far-right extremists try to take over state parties. A member of the House leadership is ousted for refusing to pander to the lie that President Biden stole the 2020 election from Donald Trump.
“But underneath, there is a striking — and frightening — degree of unity. For all the disagreement about the 2020 election, Republicans are in lockstep on the question of power — namely, that by rights it belongs exclusively to Republicans and steps must be taken to ensure that Democrats not be allowed to wield it, no matter what the voters might want.”