Recent history tends to put general election White House and Congressional party majority wins as a signal for the next midterm election losses….The following midterm tends have more of a reactionary vote from the losing party voters and the majority party voters relax riding on their past elections gains…
Could that be one of reason Joe Biden and Democrats are hustling to get things done so soon?
Striking while the ‘iron is hot’?
President Joe Biden‘s first two and a half months in office have been far better received than former President Donald Trump’s. Biden’s been able to maintain an approval rating north of 50%; something Trump never did.
Yet, a look at the data also reveals that Biden’s Democratic Party has likely not picked up any support since the election. If historical trends hold, Democrats are likely going to face a rough political environment in the midterms.
One of the best ways to judge the political environment is through the generic congressional ballot. The generic ballot asks respondents some form of the following question: “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican Party?”
Democrats are ahead on that measure by about 4 points in the average poll taken since the beginning of Biden’s administration. That lead is about the same as the final margin in the 2020 presidential race (Biden +4.5 points) and the 2020 House popular vote (Democrats +3.1 points)….
…
Additionally, the types of voters who will be casting a ballot in 2022 will likely be more favorably disposed to the GOP than the overall voting population (or those that cast a ballot in either 2018 or 2020). The reason is that when there is a Democrat in the White House, Republicans have traditionally had a turnout advantage.
A study I did back in 2018 revealed that voters who turned out in midterms with Democratic presidents in office were more Republican leaning than registered voters at-large in every midterm since 1978. On average in these midterms, the gap between the registered voter and actual electorate has been about 5 points more Republican among the actual electorate.
Just applying that shift to the polling now, it’s not hard to imagine that Republicans may already have an advantage with the voters who will turnout next year….
More …..from Harry Enten @ CNN
Usually,but not always, the party occupying the White House loses Congressional seats in the midterms.
With their thin margin in the House and the tie in the Senate?
Certainly one would say that the Democrats losing control in one or both chambers is likely.
Not even worthy of a post really.
The modern exceptions for a mid-term election in a President’s first term are 1934 and 2002, where the party in the White House actually gained seats in both chambers.
As Zreebs hyphothesised, if Joe Biden can make this a second New Deal or a 9/11-type response to the Pandemic, maybe he’d have a chance of retaining (an even-narrower) control of the House without losing another Senator. (Because of the six-year term and staggered elections, the Senate is much slower to change in the wake of Presidential elections, sometimes adding members of the President’s party instead of the opposition’s.)
Here’s the chart I posted earlier of Congressional changes in a President’s first term since 1914 (with universal direct election of Senators under the 17th Amendment).
Democratic Presidents to the left of the plus or minus number and Republican ones to the right.
1914 SENATE Wilson + 5 – 5 HOUSE Wilson – 59 + 66
1922 SENATE + 6 – 8 Harding HOUSE + 75 – 75 Harding
1926 SENATE + 7 – 6 Coolidge HOUSE + 12 – 10 Coolidge
1930 SENATE + 8 – 8 Hoover HOUSE + 54 – 50 Hoover
1934 SENATE FDR + 10 – 11 HOUSE FDR + 9 – 14
1946 SENATE Truman – 12 + 13 HOUSE Truman – 55 + 56
1954 SENATE + 2 – 1 Ike HOUSE + 19 – 18 Ike
1962 SENATE JFK + 3 – 3 HOUSE JFK – 4 + 1
1966 SENATE LBJ – 4 + 4 HOUSE LBJ – 48 + 47
1970 SENATE – 4 + 2 Nixon HOUSE + 12 – 12 Nixon
1974 SENATE + 5 – 5 Ford HOUSE + 48 – 48 Ford
1978 SENATE Carter – 3 + 3 HOUSE Carter – 15 + 14
1982 SENATE 0 + 1 Reagan HOUSE + 27 – 27 Reagan
1990 SENATE + 1 – 1 GHWBush HOUSE + 7 – 8 GHWBush
1994 SENATE Clinton – 10 + 10 HOUSE Clinton – 54 + 54
2002 SENATE – 2 + 1 GWBush HOUSE – 7 + 8 GWBush
2010 SENATE Obama – 6 + 6 HOUSE Obama – 64 + 64
2018 SENATE – 2 + 2 Trump HOUSE + 41 – 41 Trump
In the chart above, I should have explained, the first plus or minus number for each chamber is the change in Democratic members and the second is the change in Republican members.
Lets hope Biden can get the third time…
We know he and Democrats are betting on going ‘BIG’ to do it…
Even if the generic and voter suppression stuff may point against it…