These two seem to be rising above the small early group of Republican Senator’s that are the early leaders in the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination candidates right behind a vacillating Donald Trump…
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is tied with former Vice President Mike Pence among likely supporters of Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary — as long as you take the former president out of the picture.
A new survey from GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who was a Trump pollster in 2020, has DeSantis and Pence neck-and-neck in a distant second place behind Trump, who is the top choice for a narrow majority of GOP primary voters.
But when Fabrizio combined the results with Trump voters’ second choices, DeSantis and Pence were tied with 22 percent, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz coming in a close third, with 19 percent.
“If President Trump chose not to run, it’s clear his supporters are already gravitating towards VP Mike Pence, FL. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Ted Cruz,” Fabrizio said.
Among the other names included in the poll with Trump on the ballot, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley snagged 6 percent while Utah Sen. Mitt Romney received 5 percent. With Trump included, Cruz received 3 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio got 2 percent.
Others, including South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) as well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, received 1 percent. Florida Sen. Rick Scott received zero percent. POLITICO reported Wednesday that despite Scott being a long-running Trump supporter, he has initially had a tough time breaking through with the former president’s loyal base….
image…C-SPAN
This post explains why….
This poll has Trump in front of the Republican field with 51%, so he clearly would be considered the “front-runner” but just about half is hardly evidence of domination. There is a lot of reason to believe that Republicans have been and are likely to move to wanting a different person leading the party for 2024.
Frankly though, if there was a 2024 poll of Democrats with Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, and maybe some others included, would Biden be at 51%?
Right now?
Biden would lead….
But Harris would be a close second I’d guess….
AGAIN?
Harris and Sanders will NEVER be the nominee…
They would NOT win South Carolina and THAT rules them out….
I have no reason to believe that Harris can’t win SC.
Sanders is too old to run again.
I have EVERY REASON to believe that unless Joe Biden is is in NEVER-NEVER Land?
His Vice President is NOT gonna step on his face and primary him….
That would go over like a lead ballon…
I never said Harris would primary Biden. don’t say I said things that I didn’t.
I think the odds are high that Biden doesn’t run for re-election. And even if he does run again, it doesn’t mean that a Harris can’t run 4 years later.
Should Joe Biden wish to seek re-election, it would take an incredible amount of friction (and not just ambition) — of which I have not seen the slightest indication — to push a sitting VP to run against him.
Not to say that it hasn’t happened in the past, e.g. John Nance Garner against FDR’s 3rd term in 1940, or Alben Barkley against Truman in 1952, but it hasn’t happened in the last six decades. (Nixon & Ike 1956; Humphrey & LBJ 1968; Agnew & Nixon 1972; Mondale & Carter 1980; GHW Bush & Reagan 1984; Quayle & GHW Bush 1992; Gore & Bill Clinton, 1996; Cheney & GW Bush 2004; Biden & Obama 2012; Pence & Trump 2020)
There certainly had to be friction after Harris’ debate attack on Biden’s anti-busing history, but it wasn’t enough to prevent Biden from (surprisingly) picking Harris for his running-mate.
And there’s very little sharp ideological difference that would prompt Kamala Harris to challenge Joe Biden. Recent presidential candidates have not followed the practice of trying to balance the ticket with sharply-contrasting running-mates (JFK & LBJ, LBJ & Humphrey, Reagan & GHW Bush). Instead, the wiser ones have looked for someone who could collaborate closely with them, e.g. Humphrey-Muskie, Ford-Dole, Clinton-Gore, Obama-Biden.
I agree DSD…
I am not sure why we are talking about Harris challenging Biden. It all started because James forgot what he wrote and then he implied I said she would run against him.
Most likely, Biden (if he decides to run again) will be primaried, but it won’t be Harris who will do it.
Bull Shit Z…..
People do NOT seriously primary sitting President’s with poll numbers in the 60’s…
Biden isn’t gonna have Harris primary him…
The party and its voters would not look kindly at such grab…
Not sure why you don’t consider a 51-9 Trump lead over the second place finisher (Pence) to be dominating, but if that’s what you want to believe, then good for you.
So when NIU lost in football to Central Michigan by 40-10 this year, were they not dominated?
My feeling is that Donald Trump isn’t running in 2024 ….
But does NOT want to be seen as lame duck…
My feeling is also that Trump will so beat up legally and money wise in the next 18 months that thinking of him running again will be a joke…
I stand by my reasoning….
That’s a nice spin.
Of course everyone knows that if today Trump said I’m running?
Pence and Desantis would immediately announce their undying loyalty as would everyone else on that list ,except Romney and Hogan.
So this poll proves nothing about the Trump Party’s total domination by Trump at this time.
2024 Presidential? huh? who cares, we need to get past 2022 before we really focus in on 2024…
And in regards to the Dems…If Biden is still alive and wants to run again no one primaries him, it is his for taking, he has 2024 locked…if he doesn’t want to run, well that will be more interesting, but we won’t know about that until 2023…we got some time…
Same for Republicans if Trump wants it, it is a lock for him, if he doesn’t then it is also more interesting, but we will no more about that in spring/early summer 2022…
shit we need to see if they can even get stimulus done…
Then infrastructure and dare I even say the ugly word healthcare (which will never happen because they can’t work a deal with republicans on that)…but on healthcare the Supreme Court has a ruling in June that will determine the final fate of Obamacare…if it stands…then Dems might have a some negotiating power, but if they crush it…forget about it, the healthcare crisis in this country will become an all out disaster and a huge destruction of the economy…and that will be blamed on the Democrats because they are the one’s in office right now…even though we know it isn’t their fault, more the fault of the GOP, but that’s assuming intelligent discourse on healthcare and that is dead in this country.
Until this pandemic is brought under control,I suggest all these other big ticket items will move forward little, if at all.
Immigration is already in dry dock and ,despite a lot of rosy predictions ,it is far from under Control,
True.
But if you’re aRepublican who opposed to Trump?
At least you’re can dream.
As long as the Republican Party is in the throes of Trump they will occupied with both pointless grievance over the 2020 loss and premature focus on 2024.
Normally after a loss the losing party takes time to lick their wounds, analyze what went wrong and focus on a strategy and policies to broaden their appeal.
Republicans aren’t even pretending to do that now. It’s all about whining and lying that 2020 was stolen from them and revenge in 3 years.
Oh and throw in fake outrage over Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head.
Meanwhile Biden is over 60% approval.
There should be a lesson here.
Yes Scott…
While The GOP simmers from the inside?
The zombies keep following the flame thrower off the cliff…
james, Typically when people first start their presidential term, their favorability rating will be very high. Right now, Biden is in his honeymoon period. His favorability rating won’t be this high in three years.
I’m not sure why you are continuing with this Harris theme, but you can repeat yourself again if you forgot what you wrote or didn’t understand what I wrote.
I interpret this to mean running AGAINST Biden in 2024….
Am I correct?
‘….I have no reason to believe that Harris can’t win SC…”
He, he, he….
Not Trump, eh?
James, this is quite idiotic.
Joe Biden’s less than two months into his presidency and about five months away from his election. At the moment, his administration hasn’t even jelled into some definite form.
And we don’t know what it will look like by summer, what it will encounter and what it will achieve (or fail to achieve).
Who, here, in Heaven’s name, is bright enough to tell what will happen in two years? In fact who here is bright enough and prescient enough to even talk about it?
Zreebs pointed out that the general trend so far has been for presidents to lose popularity over the course of their terms. But if — as you first implied — Biden’s approval is still anything near 60% in 2023 and 2024, and if Biden can and wishes to run again, then a serious challenge (as opposed to a token statement) is extremely unlikely.
And if the last six years have told us anything: it’s to expect the unexpected and predict the unpredictable.
I REPEAT….
‘…People do NOT seriously primary sitting President’s with poll numbers in the 60’s…’
My statement STANDS….
If Biden is in toilet ?
He’s gonna step down….
Common sense….
DSD?
Neither Z, me or U know what the Biden’s numbers could be…
But right now?
Joe Biden IS @ 60%….
Me?
I’m going with what IS Right Now…..
Trump is a aberration….
That’s MY view….
I’ve been cheering for Biden here for 2 years…
I ain’t giving up now that he’s President for 10 minutes…
Translation of James’s “My statement stands “(or similar words)….
Don’t Confuse Me With The Facts!
In this case, James just forgot what he said earlier or perhaps what he was just inarticulate again and I misinterpreted what he means. When he said “Harris will never be the nominee”, I interpreted the word “never” to mean “never”. Now he seems to suggest that by never, he intended to mean 2024.
This is why I hate conversing with James, He can’t write, and he he can’t comprehend what others say. Yet it still doesn’t stop him of accusing others of saying things they didn’t say. Perhaps I should take a break for awhile.
and yeah James. If Biden is at 60% in the polls in three years, then he won’t be primaried. I just think the odds of him being over 60% in 3 years is less than 10%.
Harris IS the natural heir apparent a la’ Biden
Scenario…
I do NOT ALWAYS ‘get it’…
That i will admit…..
But sometimes i do…..
And sometimes i’m right
And sometimes i’m wrong…
And sometimes my answers go someplace else…
Yup…..
And i’m big enough to admit it….