A look at the US Senator’s who ‘could’ vote to convict their party leader of egging on protestors and anarchists to tear up the inside of the countries Capitol and possibly be looking to harm the members of that body…
The odds are VERY much against conviction….
The evidence is clear and persuasive. There is video of Trump inciting the mob, in incendiary language, exhorting them to march to the Capitol while the Senate and House jointly deliberated certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s election. The election fraud claims that Trump has peddled for months – the “stolen” election that forms the basis of the mob’s anger — have been demonstrated to be false countless times. Trump’s obstruction of the peaceful transition, a bedrock of our democracy, could hardly be better documented. This included a private phone call to the Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, bullying him to “find” the votes needed for Trump to surpass Biden – all captured by the resourceful Raffensperger, who wisely taped the call and released it to the press.
But the most important distinguishing factor this time around may very well be Mitch McConnell, who supported the House impeachment process this time after adamantly opposing it the last. McConnell has made it abundantly clear that he is open-minded (though undecided) on the matter of conviction. His ultimate decision could tip the balance one way or the other, as other fence-sitters may follow his lead.
None of this means Trump will be convicted. It’s just that the odds are far higher than last year, when the GOP, save Romney, was in lockstep opposition.
But who among the 50 GOP Senators might join the sure-to-be-united Democratic 50 member caucus? To achieve conviction, at least 17 GOP Senators must join the Democrats to achieve the required two-thirds conviction threshold.
We see the GOP Senators falling into three groups: 1) the few almost certain to convict, 2) the ones who are open to conviction but are almost surely watching what Mitch McConnell decides, and 3) the vast majority who are either on the record as opposing impeachment or almost certainly are in that group.
As it happens, the first two groups add up to exactly 17. That does not leave much margin for error, but never forget that McConnell knows how to count votes, and there is little chance he is going to be on the losing side.
Among the factors to consider are which Senators have been critical of Trump in the past; whether they are up for reelection in 2022 and thus must pay careful attention to the Trump supporters; whether they have aspirations for the 2024 GOP nomination; how damning they have been about Trump’s behavior in the insurrection; and whether they supported Trump’s efforts to upend the election….