With a little m ore than. 2 weeks to go?
New are seeing few polls on the race for the two US Senate seats in the state….
The only polls seem to be from right leaning polling outfits Trafalgar and Fox….There has been one Emerson poll…
Those polls have the two Republicans Perdue and Loeffler in the lead by less than the margin of error, having some calling the race essentially a tie….The polls started off with the Democrats ahead by the a bit a larger margin….
The voting in the elections are at the same level as last months’ Presidential election in the state….
Something’s missing from Georgia’s high-stakes Senate runoffs: the polls.
After a disastrous November election for the polling industry, when the polls again underestimated President Donald Trump (who lost regardless) as well as GOP candidates down the ballot, pollsters are mostly sidelined in the run-up to the Jan. 5 Georgia elections, which most observers regard as toss-ups.
The public polls that drove so much of the news coverage ahead of November — and generated tremendous distrust afterward — have all but disappeared in Georgia, and they are set to stay that way: Some of the most prolific, best-regarded media and academic pollsters told POLITICO they have no plans to conduct pre-election surveys in Georgia.while the campaigns and outside groups are still using survey data to make critical decisions, in many cases, polling has taken a back seat. Strategists are leaning more heavily on absentee and early voting stats, along with the detailed results of the election held just last month.
And while the campaigns and outside groups are still using survey data to make critical decisions, in many cases, polling has taken a back seat. Strategists are leaning more heavily on absentee and early voting stats, along with the detailed results of the election held just last month.
The Georgia contests come at a perilous time for public and private polling alike. General-election polls in the state had a better track record than most in November, but the added complexity of post-election runoffs is piling on top of the uncertainty about political polling in general. The state was almost evenly divided between the parties in November, but the question of just which voters are going to show up for these irregular elections in January makes polling the runoffs that much harder….
Nate Cohen
A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over the last few days, as they are now running ahead of where they stood at a similar point of the general election–thanks to a stronger Black turnout