Where they smart enough to sucker those who believed Trump would win?…Even after he lost?
Yup…..
Political pundits TOLD people the first 2020 Presidential election counted votes WOULD favor Trump, but the whole count would NOT....That and the hardcore belief IN Trump from those who are in support base gave bookies a HUGE take in Donald Trump’s lose who some people STILL cannot accept …
On Dec. 9, Donald Trump tweeted something incorrect but at least closer to the ballpark of the truth than most of what he’s posted since losing his reelection campaign.
“At 10 p.m. on Election Evening, we were at 97% [to] win with the so-called ‘bookies,’ ” Trump wrote. The “so-called ‘bookies’ ” never had Trump as a 97 percent favorite, but late on the night of Nov. 3, many online sportsbooks did indeed favor him to win the presidency. At points between 10 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. Eastern, many of these bookmakers—all of which are offshore, because election betting is not legal in the United States—posted odds that gave Trump around a 70 percent chance of victory. At 10:30 p.m., one of the most popular offshore books for U.S. bettors, Costa Rica–based Bovada, had Trump at -775, meaning a successful $775 bet would return $100 in profit. It implied an 89 percent chance that Trump would win….
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The betting markets were not good predictors, but they weren’t trying to be. The online bookmakers that fielded bets on the election saw their largest single-event windfall ever. To understand why, you need to understand election betting and Donald Trump supporters…..
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“We’ve got people living in two different realities politically, and we’ve got people betting in two different realities,” Sherwin says.
Are the bookmakers totally innocent? Were they baiting Trump supporters all along, milking gullible gamblers for all they were willing to bet?
Not in the beginning. The oddsmakers were living in the same simulation as the rest of us, unable to get Trump supporters to stop betting on their hero (and to stop adding to the sportsbooks’ liability). Both Bovada and BetOnline felt they were conservative with Trump’s odds, trying to slow down his backers.
“If anything, we were baiting Biden bettors,” Mason says. “We were giving them the discount.”
Only after the election did bookmakers reach the “taking candy from a baby” portion of the proceedings. Mason tweeted the day after the election, when Trump’s odds at BetOnline were +525 and 80 percent of the bets were still coming in on Trump, “Our massive liability continues to grow.”….
I was watching the election returns on Tuesday night of the election and I thought that Biden would lose too. At the time, WI, MI, GA and PA all looked lost when you looked at the percentage of vote already in. I wouldn’t assume that all those people who placed bets were Trump supporters.
I had to talk myself off the ledge after Florida was called election night. I had hoped a win there by Biden would have completely shut down any possibility Trump could win. The GOP victory there kept their hopes up a little longer than they should have been.
Everyone thought that Florida was well within Biden-Harris’s reach, while Georgia was a rather distant long shot (especially since Brian Kemp’s victory over Stacey Abrams).
I predicted Georgia and Florida for Biden.
At the EV level, I was only wrong on FL, NC, and ME 2.
What’s ur runoff call CG?
have not decided yet
I did not go state-by-state to make predictions, but I thought that Georgia was winnable for Biden.
While disappointed, I don’t think I was surprised that Trump won FL and NC, I was more surprised that the race was so close in MI, PA and WI. I expected a larger Biden win in those states.
Thank Heaven for the Thin Blue Wall.
In the end Michigan was about a 3 point win for Biden. More than ten times the margin of Trump’s victory in the state in 2016.
It remains to be seen how the rust belt will vote when there isn’t a Trump on the ballot. He obviously outperformed Romney in those states despite receiving less of the nation wide vote percentage than Mitt did.
The Midwest is clearly trending red long term. Trump improved his vote in Illinois over 2016. All Midwestern states have become either redder or less blue in the past few elections.
I thought Biden would take Florida until the Hispanic polling came up against Biden….
NC was always a reach…
I ALWAYS saw the tipping point as the states of PA, Mich, Wis, ….
Dave Wasserman is dropping tweets looking at voting for the last few Presidential’s…
VERY interesting….
It shows bleed off of support for Dem’s/ Biden amount new American immigrant groups…
Something we saw with Hispanics/Latinos…
Dem’s still lead with these groups…
But they should be concerned….
Dave Wasserman
Monterey Park, CA (large Taiwanese/Chinese/Vietnamese population):
2016: Clinton 70%, Trump 25%
2020: Biden 68%, Trump 30%
Wassermn has been tweeting about the bleed off of Dem/Biden support in the last few Presidential election voting among newly arrive American minorities
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
More whiplash in Beverly Hills, CA (large Persian Jewish population):
2008: Obama 60%, McCain 39%
2012: Obama 54%, Romney 44%
2016: Clinton 64%, Trump 33%
2020: Biden 55%, Trump 44%
Perhaps that can be attributed less to the Persian Jews, and more to “Defund the Police.”
Also maybe an influential Donna Martin endorsement?
People have no idea how expensive Louis Vuitton facemasks are….
Why do you state things that you know are untrue? You know that very few Democratic politicians have argued to “defund the police”. This is just the latest (in a long line) of misinformation campaigns that the GOP unleashed. Just because the campaign was effective does not make it true.
So your first sentence should more appropriately read “… Persian, Jews and more to effective disinformation campaigns that Republicans – including CG – support.”
Who said the politicians had to actually say it?
Whether you like it or not, it became part of the campaign and people voted with that on their minds.
Effective yes, whether you think it is fair or not. You seem to want to just throw your hands up and complain about it.
In contrast to Zreebs, it is only accurate to describe me as one of the *many* Biden voters who oppose the concept of defunding the police and found it frustrating how the opposition used it as a cudgel. The Far Left are their own worst enemies and you certainly cannot blame a desperate campaign from latching on to whatever they can.
Biden said he did not support defunding the police, and he won. However, it cannot be argued that Democrats had a pretty poor showing nationwide, as opposed to what expectations had been, and that was a big reason why.
As is always the case in politics, when you are getting beat at the message game, either evolve or “die.”
Instead of taking inaccurate cheap shots at me, you could perhaps look at the results in key states and realize that if not for “Republicans” like me, who voted for Biden against Trump, Biden would not have won the general election. Where would he have been if not for all the people who had voted for a McCain or Romney but voted for him? How close might it have been if not for all the people who voted for Evan McMullin or Gary Johnson who decided to vote for Biden?
He would not have gotten the nomination either if not for typically Republican voters strategically voting for him on Super Tuesday, joining the post SC coalition that enabled him to have a big win that day. I was prepared to vote for him a primary too for the same reason, but he already had it wrapped up by then.
Well then, if it is fair game to latch onto anything, then if you are to be consistent, it was fair game for Reid to state that Romney didn’t pay any taxes. Reid knew that the accusation would stick because Romney wouldn’t allow his taxes to become public because if they were, then it would likely have shown that he made some unethical or at least highly-questionable tax deductions,
I voted against Romney’s opponent and against Biden’s opponent, so I think you should salute me for my consistent integrity and judgment.
Obviously, the concept of Romney being an “out of touch” and “heartless” millionaire was used effectively against him. (The Obama-Biden ads spoke for themselves even without Reid’s deliberate slander) and obviously I did not like it and found it frustrating , but I am able to understand the realities of politics, which were that Obama and his party were rightly scared of losing to Romney and succeeded in winning in part by how they were able to “define” him.
Romney did release his taxes as he always said he would, before the election. It clearly showed he had paid a lot of taxes and had been perfectly honest about it.
It was only after the election that Harry Reid admitted he made up the story about “someone he knows” and was happy to have made it up.
Will we see Trump gleeefully declare that Biden did not want to defund the police? We saw Chris Wallace of Fox News push back very hard against Trump on that of course during the campaign.
Also Zreebs, I certainly also never said “fair game.” I pretty much indicated that distortions are unfair, but are an unavoidable factor of politics that successful campaigns have to counter.
Biden was able to on “defund the police.” Sanders or Warren would not have been able to.
It also perhaps is worth noting, that Trump’s mixed messages on Biden and law enforcement were ridiculously inconsistent because the same time he would say Biden would lead to defunding the police, he was accusing Biden of having being a supporter of racist overpolicing in his career.
Obviously it could not have been both.
BTW?
Sanders DID come out AGAINST defunding the police….
He was a Mayor back in the day…
Well I am glad you voted for Biden. We probably would no longer have a Democracy if people such as yourself didn’t.
But the “Defund the Police” argument was a disinformation campaign, and whether you consider it fair game is a different issue.
You were prepared to vote for Biden?
I think we all remember how you were making fun of him as a bumbler and deliberating on who you were going to write in for President.
This went on for months.
Then after watching some commercial you announced you had decided to vote for Biden.
Saying that Biden supported defunding the police was disinformation.
It was however accurate to say that many voices on the Far Left were in favor of it and people were taking to the streets with that (and worse) as slogans.
Those people were a political gift to Trump, as many early Biden supporters admitted at the time.
Biden found himself in a tough position. He could have denounced those folks in a more direct way but was afraid of aggravating many in the base of his party. So instead, he did things like apologize for the 1994 Crime Bill.
Romney only released his taxes for some years and that gave Reid the opportunity to get away with what he said – without having evidence.
I agree that the “Defund the Police” campaign was a gift to Trump.
I said here many times at the time, that I was prepared to vote for Biden in the Illinois Primary (even as I said I did not expect to ever vote for him in a general election) as a strategic method to stop Sanders from winning the nomination.
My first preference in regards to the Dem primary was to vote for Michael Bloomberg whom I considered the most ideologically acceptable Democrat and the one who had the best chance of winning.
But by the time Illinois voted in March, Biden had pretty much secured the state and Bloomberg was out of the race. So, I wrote in Mitt Romney in the D primary.
Mitt Romney the Democrat nominee?
Yes that made sense.
Romney released many years of taxes in January of 2012, before he officially became a candidate.
When he became a candidate, he said he would release the 2011 returns when they were finished, because for very rich people, it takes longer.
He did release those in September of 2012. The returns show that he and his wife paid federal taxes every year.
In 2016, Romney loudly advocated for Trump to release his taxes and speculated as to why he might not have. When returns were eventually leaked to the media , it showed Romney was accurate about Trump as well.
So you were “prepared” to vote for Biden in the primary but not in the itself?
That makes sense.
I voted in the D primary due to a different race.
Romney is what I would want to see in a President, so my write-in vote made sense.
Romney vs. Trump, one on one, as a binary choice, would not have been nearly as close as Biden vs. Trump, assuming you guys on the left were willing to do what I wound up doing for Biden.
But Biden won, so as I always said, I did not blame you for not wanting to accept that last option.
It made perfect sense, and I explained why at the time.
But I wound up voting for Biden in the general election anyway. I sense that jack and Scott almost wish I had not, so they could have something else to complain about me on a blog.
I said at the time you were talking about doing what your conscience required that I didn’t care who you voted for.
I congratulated you on voting for Biden.
However, I personally believe that very shortly you will be here making remarks highly critical of his policies.
And it will be unsurprising.
If you disagree with Biden Admin policies, will you keep them to yourself?
I would imagine ,and I’m sure everyone here will agree ,that my disagreements with Bidens policies will be infinitesimal compared to yours.
You’re a conservative Republican .Biden is a moderately liberal Democrat.It would be unsurprising that you wouldn’t disagree with most of what he does.
Romney was on tv yesterday lamenting how Trump didn’t take a victory lap for all his accomplishments .
I did not catch that part. I just noticed how he was of course very critical of Trump over Russia and post-election matters and how he made it clear that the party had changed so much since he was the standard bearer and he wished it were not the case.