One a half weeks out from Election Day and the polls ALL point to Joe Biden getting sworn in January 20, 2021…
Four years ago ?
Hillary Clinton was ahead also…
But?
She NEVER had the numbers Biden has had all along and has now….
BTW?
The national polls in 2016 did predict the ‘popular vote’, which Hillary won by 3 million votes….But you get the job thru state voting
This time?
State polls point to a Biden Electoral college good size win….
So?
Luntz has a point….
While polls just give a view of things a few days before they are released?
They DO point to a Joe Biden win this time with the popular vote AND Electoral vote….
Pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday night that if poll predictions are wrong about the 2020 election between President Trumpand Democratic nominee Joe Biden, his “profession is done” in terms of faith and confidence from the public.
Recent polls show Biden ahead nationally in some polls by double digits, with the former vice president ahead in the majority of battleground states. Biden is also competing with Trump in states like Georgia and Texas, which are normally carried by Republican candidates.
The assessment comes nearly four years after President Trump defied almost all polls, upsetting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election by winning the Electoral College, 304-227.
Why didn’t Luntz have one of his “focus groups” las night?
He usually does that for these “debates.”
Indeed he had one for the first one.
His comments points to him feeling they would unnecessary ….
He joins others in feeling Trumo IS gonna lose…
Apparently Luntz did have a”focus group” last night.
According to him the “debate” was a tie which Luntz said was a plus for Biden;however, the comments from his “group” were mostly pro Trump.
Odd.
Looks like Luntz ,as usual, is trying to have it both ways.If Biden wins he points to his assessment above .If Trump wins he says that his focus group was right!
Typical of him.
I did a post that pointed to the ‘2016’ effect….
It’s there for people from both parties and the pundits….
If not for Trump’s 2016 ‘miracle’?
The Trump campaign would be a straight across the board media write off….
I’m almost morally certain that Biden-Harris’20 will not repeat the (admittedly cash-starved) Clinton-Kaine campaign of 2016, which stopped polling the individual Blue Wall states several weeks before Election Day, relying instead on whiz-kid “analytics”.
Money is also a huge difference this year. With the flood of contributions (many small, $42, says Biden) there are not only ample funds for the national campaign, but Biden-Harris is not draining or starving down-ballot candidates — one of the reasons that Mitch McConnell is Majority leader, since the Democrats won only two Senate seats (NH & Ill.) in 2016 out of a theoretically-possible seven (e.g. Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and Pennsylvania).
Good points DSDS…..
Biden & Co is determined to finish strong and take ANYTHING. for granted….
2016 sits on their minds….
It’s possible that pollsrers looking to avoid another omelet on their faces have overcorrected from 2016.
If that’s the case it could mean a Biden national margin of 10-12 points, currently close swing states going blue by several points and states that are currently looking to be our of reach for Democrats (South Carolina, Missouri, Kansas, Alaska) either falling into the Democratic column or being very narrow GOP holds.
I’m not necessarily predicting this. Just saying it’s possible.
Well Scott i do NOT see those states going to Biden…
But in looking at the polls everyday and seeing the increased voting numbers the best places for Biden should be North Carolina , Florida and a longer shot in Georgia and Iowa…
Trump voters may or may not come out strong on election day to more convenient polling locations….
I don’t either. But surprises can happen.
Indeed….
why is Trump advertising on NY TV…got to be expensive and wasteful?
You didn’t see the Newsday piece where he said he could carry NY thru LI?
His campaign IS a mess….
If you add Nassau and Suffolk Counties together, Trump-Pence (R+Cons.) actually carried Long Island, although by the thinnest of margins, ~6,400 votes or 0.49%) over Clinton-Kaine (D-Working Families):
Clinton – Trump – Stein – Johnson – all others – Total
636,105 642,595 14,833 25,253 21,380 1,340,166
47.46% 47.95% 1.11% 1.88% 1.60% 100.00%
Yup….
Even on the local level in the last two years GOPer’s have NOT done to bad….
But The Big Apple IS a BIG Democratic vote machine that drowns out the rest of the state….
NYC has 3 TIMES the population of Nass and Suf counties and of course the 5 borer’s are Democratic rich…
However, Clinton won New York City crushingly and Upstate by a respectable margin.
Yeah, and Nassau and Suffolk for this election will be closely split again, I am actually going to predict a Biden/Harris Win in those two counties…small win, but a win…won’t say it will swing down ballot races on the Island, but the president doesn’t have the support of 50% on Nassau and Suffolk…Probably close to 49%…but that is still a loss in the one area he would need a Huge margin to even think about winning the State of New York…