The states that gave Donald Trump his surprise win 4 years ago are in Joe Biden’s column…
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota….
Four years ago Hillary Clinton was 5.2% pts ahead of Trump down from only a high of 7.0% on October 17….
Joe Biden is down from 10.3% October 11 to 7.8% pts ahead yesterday …..
In the last year?
Donald Trump has NEVER come closer than 4.8% pts BEHIND Biden ….
Against Hillary Clinton?
Trump actually topped Clinton TWICE in the polling numbers ….
| Monday, October 26 |
@NateSilver538
Replying to
If the polls aren’t tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we’re sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow)…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our current trifecta chances:
@Politics_Polls
@TheEconomist Forecast:
Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 95%
Trump 5%
Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden >99%
Trump <1%
Estimated electoral college votes:
Biden 350
Trump 188