Joe Biden IS just running the table with the polls….
National AND State polls…
Oct. 21, 2016…..
Clinton up by 6.1%…but dropping…
Oct. 21, 2020….
Biden up by 7.5% and climbing….
There are about 23 polls with Biden vs Trump below….
Donald Trump leads in TWO….
| Wednesday, October 21 |
…
@Redistrict
Replying to
TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast: Clinton-won counties: 60% Trump-won counties: 59% Another reminder you shouldn’t read a partisan advantage from huge turnout. Both parties’ bases highly motivated.
…
@Redistrict
New @CookPolitical House ratings with 13 days to go:
Solid/Likely/Lean D: 228
Solid/Likely/Lean R: 181
Toss Up: 26
Latest outlook: Democratic net gain of 5-15 seats.
…
@NateSilver538
Replying to
I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it’s not going to be a very reliable average.
…
@Redistrict
Final weeks of 2016: massive Dem denial about district-level polling that showed Trump breaking through (see replies to this tweet). Final weeks of 2020: massive Dem paranoia, even though district-level polling consistently shows Trump running well behind his ’16 margins.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Fact: more people have now early voted in North Carolina (2,4317,317) than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in North Carolina (2,362,631) in 2016.
Georgia on our minds!
“The latest list of Georgia voters makes it easy to see why the state is in play this election,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Nearly two-thirds of the new voters since the last presidential election are people of color… Georgia’s changing demographics have long been anticipated, but they happened more quickly than many people expected.”
Politicalwire…
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Replying to
@Redistrict
Now, the huge caveat: our swingometer is designed to estimate the impact of uniform demographic swings, which never truly happen.
There’s strong evidence Biden is winning back plenty of non-college whites in the Upper Midwest, but not so many in the Deep South (FL/GA/TX etc.)
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
@Redistrict
However, the scenario above might also be *underestimating* the potential for nonwhite Dem turnout growth in the Sun Belt.
In short, not hard to argue today’s polls are closer to a Biden 400+ EV landslide (GA, TX, OH, IA) than Trump winning 270+.
Sabato people on Florida ….
— While it is a swing state, expect Florida to vote to the right of the national popular vote.
— Biden is likely to underperform Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade, but outshine her in working class communities and suburbs.
— How Florida’s seniors judge Trump on COVID will likely decide the state.
More…