It’s 6 days out folks….
If this poll is any good?
Joe Biden will win this thing in a blow out ‘blue wave’ vote…..
The race for Georgia’s electoral votes remains very close, but Joe Biden has gained ground on Donald Trump in the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Democrats have also improved their standing in the two U.S. Senate races, erasing a GOP lead in the regularly scheduled contest and leaving two Republicans fighting for a spot in the special election runoff.
Among all registered voters in Georgia, Biden is supported by 50% and Trump is supported by 45%. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% are undecided. These results represent a small swing in the Democrat’s favor, but the numbers are not statistically different from Trump’s single point edge last month (47% to 46% for Biden) or the tied result in July (47% each).
Similarly, the shifts in Monmouth’s likely voter models+ are not statistically significant, but they do show Biden with a nominal lead for the first time. In a high turnout model, Biden has 50% support and Trump has 46%. Trump led in this model by 2 points in September and one point in July. The race is tighter using a lower turnout model at 50% Biden and 48% Trump, whereas the incumbent led by 3 to 5 points in this model in prior polls. Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016.
More than half (58%) of registered voters in Georgia report having already cast their ballots. Biden leads among this group by 55% to 43%. Trump has a 48% to 44% edge, though, among those who have yet to vote….
Georgia polling post is HERE….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Monmouth has been quite bearish on Democrats in Georgia all year, so this is a real warning sign for Republicans that Biden is tied/ahead there.
MonmouthPoll@MonmouthPoll
· 45m
GEORGIA VOTER POLL: President – @JoeBiden overtakes @realDonaldTrump
Registered voters:
45% Trump (47% in Sept.)
50% Biden (46%)
Likely voters, high turnout:
46% Trump (48%)
50% Biden (46%)
Likely voters, low turnout:
48% Trump (50%)
50% Biden (45%)
http://monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_GA_102820/
If by 10:30 PM Tuesday Night the News calls PA, NC and FLA for Biden, we one the East Coast can call it a night and got o bed and don’t have to waste hours listening to talking heads…And if this Georgia shit is real…and they can’t call Florida or PA yet, but they call Georgia for Biden…that will be a wrap…
Pennsylvania is not going to be called until Thursday the earliest, even if Biden wins solidly.
I’m with bdog….
I’m in for a call by 11:00PM for the win….
Minn, Wis, Mich going Biden and NC and PA for Biden…..
I’m also gonna go out on a limb and give Biden Fla….
AGAIN?
Joe Biden MUST get over 320/335 EV’s to get a clean ‘locked’ win….
Anything below 300 EV’s is gonna be an issue for him….
With the mail in voting, there will be nowhere near as many “calls” on Election Night as normal.
Still, there will be polls done, in which phone polls of those who said they already voted will be melded scientifically with exit polls and there will be pretty good clues as to which races look to close to call and which do not.
CG?
The early voting IS crushing it….
Most state’s WILL tabulate their mailin’s in computers all day Nov 3rd….
There IS a piece that points to the number of mail-in ballots actuated mailed back as MUCH lower….
People either hand dropping them or actually voting…
I had people hand dropping and actually voting instead of mail-in ballot….
Trump’s BS isn’t about happen anymore that him putting more than 8K into his campaign….
And Kavanaugh is full of shit…..
Elections aren’t certified for weeks….
THAT won’t be the issue….
They’ll be careful….
But AP, NBC, ABC and CBS WILL call states Nov 3rd….
Like bdog says….
The east coast states and some southern east coast states along with Micj, Minn and Wisc is really ALL they need to call for Biden…..
If those state’s split ?
Trump would have a chance…..
Lets’s NOT forget….
Donald J.Trump IS a serial LIAR and loser most of the time…..
The only way I see a “call” by 11:00 is if Biden is winning decisively .Im talking about like 55% or more of the vote ,with the outstanding areas being mostly Democratic strongholds.
Otherwise,I imagine the networks will be extra careful given the reality that Trump has created whereby a massive “theft” is occurring.
I agree on the hesitation ….
My view would work if like I said East coast down the Virgina and Maryland = Biden….
NC and Florida get the AP call for Biden….
And….
Wish, Mich, and Mine = Biden….
That about locks out Trump….
Georgia with be icing on the cake….
GOPer’s gonna be trying HARD to suppress numbers on Pa and NC…..
My view is 320 EV’s for Biden…
With NC ?
It goes up to 335…..
Some pundits are at 350…..
Oh how I wish this wasn’t an outlier….
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
New Texas Poll:
Biden 51% (+9)
Trump 42%
Jorgensen (L) 1%
Hawkins (G) 1%
Citizen Data
LV, 10/17-10/20 by
Another citizen data poll with Biden up in Texas….
This a bit less….
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
TEXAS
Biden 49% (+4)
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 0%
.
#TXsen:
Cornyn (R-inc) 41%
Hegar (D) 41%
@CitizenData
, LV, 10/17-20
https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Corrected%20Texas%20VBM%20Toplines%2010_29_20.pdf