Democrats and Biden continue to lead in most polls for another day….
|Friday, September 18|
|Race/Topic (Click to Sort)||Poll||Results||Spread|
|North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden||NY Times/Siena*||Biden 45, Trump 44||Biden +1|
|Arizona: Trump vs. Biden||NY Times/Siena*||Biden 49, Trump 40||Biden +9|
|Maine: Trump vs. Biden||NY Times/Siena||Biden 55, Trump 38||Biden +17|
|Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden||NY Times/Siena||Biden 47, Trump 45||Biden +2|
|Michigan: Trump vs. Biden||EPIC-MRA||Biden 48, Trump 40||Biden +8|
|Michigan Senate – James vs. Peters||EPIC-MRA||Peters 45, James 41||Peters +4|
|Arizona Senate – McSally vs. Kelly||NY Times/Siena||Kelly 50, McSally 42||Kelly +8|
|Maine Senate – Collins vs. Gideon||NY Times/Siena*||Gideon 49, Collins 44||Gideon +5|
|North Carolina Senate – Tillis vs. Cunningham||NY Times/Siena*||Cunningham 42, Tillis 37||Cunningham +5|
|North Carolina Governor – Forest vs. Cooper||NY Times/Siena*||Cooper 47, Forest 42||Cooper +5|
|Maine 2nd District – Crafts vs. Golden||NY Times/Siena||Golden 56, Crafts 37||Golden +19|
|President Trump Job Approval||Rasmussen Reports||Approve 53, Disapprove 46||Approve +7|
|General Election: Trump vs. Biden||NPR/PBS/Marist||Biden 52, Trump 43||Biden +9|
|General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins||NPR/PBS/Marist||Biden 49, Trump 42, Jorgensen 5, Hawkins 2||Biden +7|
The new FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58% chance to control the chamber after the 2020 elections.
The Upshot analysis of today’s polls….
The good part for Mr. Biden is simple: On Thursday, he led in every poll of North Carolina, Florida and Arizona — five polls in all. President Trump carried all of these states four years ago. Together, winning those states would probably put Mr. Biden well over 300 electoral votes.
The good news for the president is that he didn’t trail in any of those states by very much, and he stayed close in a state that has seemed in danger of slipping away: Arizona…
Think twice about that Biden lead in North Carolina Today there was a Suffolk University poll showing Mr. Biden up by four points in North Carolina, which would be a strong showing in a state where our averages suggest a dead heat.
Unfortunately, this poll has a major problem: The share of respondents who are college graduates is too big….
Updates will be added during the day…..