Sure looks like the 2016 ‘miracle’ is NOT gonna repeat for Donald Trump this time….
The polls ain’t the same…
He has caught up to Trump in the national polls and is losing in several states he needs to wiggle enough electoral votes to keep his job….
We ALL know he ain’t gonna win the popular vote….
We’re slowly coming off a pandemic that might could get worst this winter…
The economy is sluggish and probably will get worst…
There have been protest ‘s to counter Trump’s use of race and violence to help him…
Joe Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton….
The media has stopped just repeating Trump’s lies….
They now call them out…
Trump’s campaign is having money problems…
And Donald Trump HIMSELF seems hell bent on talking himself out of his job…..
Since 2000, presidential elections have been won in the margins. Some wins were bigger than others. But compared to the previous century, this two-decade period of competitive elections is a testament to how polarized the country has become.
But there is one exception to the recent rule: Barack Obama’s landslide victory in 2008. In November, Obama stomped all over Republican John McCain. Obama took 68 percent of Electoral College votes by winning states like Indiana and Virginia that no Democrat had won since 1964.
For most of that year, the 2008 presidential campaign didn’t feel like a landslide at all. Indeed, in early September national polling from reputable outlets like the Associated Press, CBS News, and ABC News all had McCain ahead of Obama. A USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up 10 points on Labor Day weekend.
But shortly after, the bottom fell out on McCain.
It was painfully obvious and he never recovered.
In the last 24 hours, the 2020 presidential race began to feel a lot 2008. A series of new polls imply the bottom might be falling out on Republicans again, especially for President Trump.
First some context: Unlike in 2008, only one nominee, Democrat Joe Biden, has led every national poll all year. Since the summer, he has also led in every swing state poll. All that has changed is the size of the lead….
…
To be sure, in 2020, there are three presidential debates planned that could turn things around for Trump. But people are already voting and debates lately are much-hyped but typically have little impact on the campaign. After all, McCain had three debates to turn things around, too. But after that week 12 years ago when the bottom fell out, there was no turning the campaign around….
image…Patrick Semansky/AP
New Open Thread is HERE….
Morning people…..
Looks like Saint Mitt has folded on the McConnell rule. One set of rules for the Democrats and one for Trump.
I’ve said it before, he only flirts with greatness.
As Phil Mattingly just said on CNN….
This actually isn’t about Trump….
This IS about something Republican have dreamed about….
Romney talks the ‘talk’…
But does NOT walk the walk…
There’s Little Evidence for ‘Shy’ Trump Voters
A new Morning Consult survey finds little basis for the theory that there are “shy” Trump voters who don’t tell pollsters the truth about who they will support.
Your third sentence in the your introductory remarks is nonsensical.
I always enjoy it when someone corrects James on one of his well known nonsensical sentences and then he childishly refuses to correct it.
Very Trumpian of him!
Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died.
Morning…..
Morning All
Morning All…..
What is your positive comment for the day Jack?
POLITICO
@politico
President Donald Trump said today he was furious with Republicans in Washington for not doing enough to take up his unsubstantiated claims about former Obama administration officials and Hunter Biden
We don’t put our political opponents or their kids in jail in this country…..
Yet…..
Morning….
Got to the local election office when they opened at 8 AM Central to cast my early ballot. Working the polls election day. Have been in line five minutes. Guessing it will be half an hour wait judging by the line.
Morning
Our early voting is from Oct 24….
My wife and i will do that….
I have send more money to Biden/Harris
More crazy shit i’ll post later….
October 24, 2020, will be exactly 75 years after the signing of the United Nations Charter in the San Francisco Opera House.
This year there are few if any heads of states making the annual trip to the Big Apple for the General Assembly….
NYC probably will lose a Billion Dollars …..
Morning people…..
Morning all
This IS about what I think will be the final result on November 4th , 2020….
NC is iffy…
But the map IS what I think things will shake out to be,,,,,
This would do it for Biden since the margins about 100 EV’s…
Link …
Just a note on my forecast for Nov 3….
Biden just COULD get North Carolina ….
The direct Biden/Trump polls ARE close, but the two down ballot’s (Senate/Gov) look about solid for Democrats and could actually help Biden I’d think….
Again….
My Guess ‘at this time’….
Biden by 320-335….
Morning People….
Fareed Zakaria mentions ……
A Republican President has only won the popular vote once in decades….
But has been President 50% of the time…..
He is also discussing an possible situation where Republicans states might switch out electors that go with the vote count for THEIR choice….
They would be looking to take the election AWAY from the voters and having their party decide it….
In essence?
The Republican Party would continuing to control the American government as a minority of it’s population voting….
America is NOT a Democracy…..
It IS a Republic….
The ACTUALLY choice of President is by 538 people….
NOT the millions that vote….
One hopes that Zakaria’s worries are groundless….
If NOT?
The Republicans COULD be about to ‘take OVER America’ in plain sight…..
Yeah it all over….
Trump is re-elected!
There are many countries that are “Republics” where the President is elected by popular vote.
The Electoral College system is a creation of the Constitution.
It has nothing to do with the fact that we are a “Republic.”
A True Democracy would NOT have an electoral college…..
The leader would be chosen by a straight democratic vote….
Name the countries that qualify as a “true democracy.”
In more than half (65) of the world’s 125 democracies, the head of state – nearly always called a president – is directly elected by voters.
Thirty other democracies are classified as constitutional monarchies, and in the remaining 30, including the U.S., the head of state is indirectly elected. (We confined our analysis to the 125 nations designated as “electoral democracies” by Freedom House, a research institute that studies issues of democracy, political freedom and human rights.)
However, only the U.S. has a system in which voters elect a body of “electors” whose sole function is to actually choose the president. The other 29 countries that indirectly elect their head of state give that task to their national legislatures, supplemented in five cases by representatives of states or regions….
Pew…
The fact is that the people who put together the government of the original 13 states did NOT trust its citizens to elect a president….
Another clue…
US Senator’s where NOT directed elected until 1914….
In a “true democracy” aka a direct democracy,the people make decisions on issues themselves.
We live in a “representative “ democracy aka “indirect “democracy whereby the people elect representatives ,ie, a President, Congress, etc who then make those type decisions .
I know of no country which uses a “true democracy” as a system of national governance.
You used the term “true democracy “ in your earlier post and I believe that is what precipitated CGs question.
Yes, technically we are a “representative democracy” and one that is far more representative in how the leader is chosen than the UK, Canada, Germany. France, Israel,etc. etc.
All of those countries are certainly democratic though.
Mornin……
More from Harry Enten:
Back in 2016, Democrats couldn’t believe Trump was competitive with Clinton. (So much so some often dismissed polls showing a competitive race.) This year it’s clear that some GOPers can’t believe Biden is clearly leading Trump.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has made his first endorsement in a Presidential race–for the Biden/Harris ticket.
Laugh if you will but honestly this is a much bigger deal than your average politico’s endorsement. The Rock is immensely popular, has to this point been apolitical–calling himself an independent centrist. His endorsement of Biden was enthusiastic and positive.
There are a lot of young men who were either not going to vote or were soft Trump supporters who could be swayed by this. And if there was any evidence of some Hispanic or African-American men shifting to Trump this can put a stop to that in it’s track.
More on the ‘Rock’…..
The McMahons can not be happy.
I don’t know about Jesse Ventura (Ind.)
James “Jesse Ventura” Janos is actually on the ballot in Alaska as the Green Party candidate. The VP candidate is former Georgia Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney.
Another Jesse , eh?
Same guy. He has to have his legal name on the ballot though. His legal name has never been Jesse Ventura.
One huge state, one tiny electorate, one eccentric and one crazy.
Stage name….
Ok….
In many of those countries, the “head of state” is not the head of government.
The countries that do directly elect a head of government, there is also the need for a majority of the vote to be reached.
If the U.S. is not a true democracy, then even far less so would be Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany, India, and anywhere else with any sort of a Parliamentary system.
Certainly, the American people have more of a say as to who is the head of state and head of government (same position here) than the U.K. Canada, etc. etc.
Despite the history and political-science theory, CG, most of those parliamentary countries have become more “presidential” in their campaigns. Campaign consultants cross the Atlantic or the 49th parallel all the time just to stay in work, — so for Knesset elections (which you must know far, far better than I) the major-party advertising is all focussed on “Bibi” or Yitzhak Rabin, rather than on Likud or Labour.
And you can“t split your ticket down the ballot (at least for national government) in most of those elections, e.g. I love Joe Manchin but I’m also voting for Donald Trump. I’m almost certain that in the last British General Election, there must have been a significant number of voters who would have voted for their local Labour M.P. or parliamentary candidate but for the fact that this would also aid the chances of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
The Electoral College is sort of a hybrid between the parliamentary and presidential models (for both democracies and other models of rule).
In a parliamentary system, the elected leader of (usually) the lower house becomes prime minister, chooses cabinet officials and runs the government.
Because of the geographical distribution of seats, this does not always guarantee that the party (and thus its leader) winning the most popular votes will also win the most seats.
For example, Clement Attlee’s Labour Party in the UK won more popular votes in 1951, but fewer seats in the House of Commons, than Winston Churchill’s Tories, so Churchill returned to 10 Downing Street.
In February 1974, the situation reversed: while no party won a majority of either the popular vote or of Members of Parliament, the Tories won more popular votes and fewer seats than Labour. However, Harold Wilson was able to gain enough support from the Liberals and other third parties to form a minority Labour government that replaced Edward Heath’s Conservative ministry.
Sometimes, these anomalies come from inequalities in the number of constituents in each seat, but often just because the larger popular vote can just be concentrated by chance or by design in fewer parliamentary seats [the phenomenon that allows gerrymandering].
In most presidential systems (but not the U.S.), the President is elected by a straight popular vote.
But the U.S. Electoral College adds to the possible disproportions of a straight parliamentary system in two ways, one built-in and the other from political practice.
One is the awarding of two Electors (representing the two Senate seats) to each state regardless of population.
The other has come from the political choice of the winner-take-all system in every state but Maine and Nebraska. This can give all of a large state’s many Electoral Votes to a candidate whose statewide margin was tiny (as happened in Florida in 2000, and in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016).
These anomalies have elected Presidents with fewer national popular votes than their opponents in four elections out of the 37 [11%] since popular votes began choosing almost all Electors in 1828. (If you want to add the fuzzier election of 1824, that would make 5/38 or 13%, over 1 in 8.) — Rutherford Hayes (R) over Samuel Tilden (D) in 1876 (with four states’ votes disputed and decided by a Congressional-Judicial commission), Benjamin Harrison (R) over Pres. Grover Cleveland (D) in 1888, G.W. Bush (R) over Al Gore (D) in 2000, and Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. (In 1824, John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson each fell well short of a majority in both popular and Electoral votes, but Jackson won more popular votes than Adams, while the House of Representatives, voting by state and not by member, made Adams the President.)
The current Head of Government in Canada, not only was not elected by the people, but saw his party receive less votes than the opposition nationwide.
and the “Head of State” in Canada wound up with the job because her Uncle married a divorced woman.
Morning…..
1st Debate is tomorrow @ 9:00 NY time…
The NY Giants are terrible
Again….
They just keep coming….
I was a Republican governor of Pa. I’m voting for Joe Biden. | Opinion
Tom Ridge, For The Inquirer
Just sent Biden/Harris another $50…..
Nate Silver
In the background, the model gets a bit more confident in Biden with every day that passes, though we’re also seeing a small “convention bounce adjustment” wear off as more recent polls replace post-RNC polls. Has lead to a very steady forecast overall…
Silver’s model now has Biden’s chance of a win at 77%…
Palin Hints She May Challenge Murkowski
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) might get a primary challenge from former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in her 2022 campaign, according to E&E News.
Morning…..
Tonight we see the thriller in Cleveland!
Remorse, repentance and atonement are for losers, not for the infallible second greatest, possibly the greatest, President EVAH !!
Trump…..
Attack….
Attack!……
Judd Legum
DAILY MAIL: “Donald Trump’s demoted campaign boss Brad Parscale is under investigation for ‘stealing’ between $25-$40 million from Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign”
( no honor among thieves? )
BTW?
The ‘leaks’ ARE GONNA get worst in the next month and REALLY worst after the election …
Particularly nasty when one considers the average working-class or lower-middle-class, low-info, small contributor who in or out of work sends Trump $20 or $50 a month out of genuine support for Trump and Trumpism, or vivid fear of his opposition, or a devout belief in a religious denomination’s pro-life or homophobic philosophy.
I care rather less if anyone was stealing from the contributions of some amoral private interest (e.g. fossil fuels) who’s funding Trump out of pure, material self-interest. Serves them right.
The thread on the twitter post points to questions of Trump getting a cut of the money involved…..
Again….
Once Barr is gone?
A LOT of Trump & Co maybe looking for lawyers
Trump nsupposedly ,behind closed doors ,has said of the “Evangelical leaders” who support him,
“They’re all hustlers.”
If he did say that?Finally we agree on something!
Post coming on this with just fall’s in line with the revelation from other’s who said Trump looks down his nose even at most Trumpites….
Reports are that over 125,000 people have already voted in Florida…
Morning people….
Hey Jack?
New poll has Harrison and Graham tied at 48%
Yes I saw that.
It also has the presidential race essentially tied.
Oddly ,as to the question which party would you like to see Control the Senate?It was 49-44 for the Republicans.
Quinnipiac is a pretty good poll though.
I still see Trump and Graham victorious.
If Trump were to lose SC–something I still see as highly unlikely unless it’s a complete Drm wave–its almost a given that NC GA and FL will also be for Biden meaning a complete shut out of the GOP on the Eastern seaboard.
Yes Trump won S.C. by like 16% in 2016.
The Economist model shows Trump +9 here.
That seems more realistic ,but still represents an almost 50% decline in his margin from last time.
Trump IS on his way out….
He KNOWS IT….
Trump won Missouri by about 18% in 2016. He has dropped to a 5 point lead in the last poll I saw here so a 13 point drop.
Similarly in the competitive suburban St. Louis 2nd District Trump won by 11% in 2016 and Biden now leads by 3 so a similar drop in his support.
Missouri’s strong swing to the GOP in 2016 compared to 2012 is similar to both Iowa and Ohio–states Trump by 9 and 8 points respectively in 2016 that Obama carried in 2012 and are now pretty much dead heats.
Yo Scott?
Trump is polling with margins in the single digits in RED SOUTHERN STATES and Texas‼️
Will he lose them?
Probably Not
But?
Morning people….
CNN Politics
@CNNPolitics
Jimmy Carter, the oldest living US president, turns 96 https://cnn.it/3naFGM0
He’s not only the oldest living president; at least so far, he’s the oldest ex-president EVAH!
Geo. H.W. Bush lived til he was 94.
Ford and Reagan until they were 93.
John Adams and Herbert Hoover after reaching 90.
Truman at 88.
James Madison at 85.
All the rest before their 84
th birthday.
[In Jan. 1953, Ike was one of the oldest presidents to be inaugurated the first time, but he died at 78, younger than Bernie Sanders is today.]
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age
It’s the peanuts?
Wonderful milestone for President Carter.
It can be noted that his father and all of his siblings died young of cancer.
Ron Machtley (USNA) can tell Jack Reed (USMA) — who used to bet each other on the Army-Navy game while representing RI in the U.S. House — that it’s because Carter graduated from Annapolis, while poor old Ike came out of West Point (where Jack Reed returned for his wedding).
Carter was with sub’s if i remember
and engineer?
Happy Birthday to President Carter.
I remember as a kid learning that the most long lived President(s) made it to 90–as DSD noted, Herbert Hoover and John Adams.
That we have had four reach their 91st birthdays and beyond in the last two decades is pretty incredible
Bless the guy….
And his wife….
Joe Biden IS above 50% in the general election RCP polling average….
Just .1 above….
But above….
Nate Silver has Biden’s chances at 80%….
After debate polling has Biden no lower than 8% AHEAD of Trump I believe….One poll has him 13% ahead of Trump while Trump says he win the debate and he’s doesn’t want the next debate rules changed so I guess he can screw himnself worst?…
Morning….
There WILL be More…And hardcore Trump supporters do NOT care
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
At this rate, there’s still time for 5-7 more major bombshells to not upend the race between now and November….
That would be a blow out with Biden knocking on over 400EV’s
Silver says they give good Dem results for the state….
This IS trending away from Graham
and he’s begging for money….
Something IS going on
We do not know if it is enough
Morning….
I’m sure more crazy shit is in store before the actual election day is upon us…
Biden needs to get sworn in so things can calm down and themselves…