The Donald Trump we see now is NOT the guy that ran for office as a New York Real Estate/Entertainer guy….
No matter how you see things?
He’s just NOT THAT guy….
Not for those who won’t vote for him…
And not even for a good amount of those who will vote for him…
The Presidency has taken the wraps off a guy who see’s himself in one way and is seen by most of us in another way….
And the that has cost him…
His approval numbers after being in office are almost exactly where they where when he moved in the nation’s White House…
President’s numbers rise and fall…
Trump’s has not…
He has never had a majority of American say they support his actions as President…
And now ?
He’s telling everyone who listen that he’s think about what he’ll do IF he loses….
Wait?
He does NOT talk about winning anymore?
Just how he’ll deal with losing?
…the past four years of shocking scandals and constant lies, the conversations with voters, the media’s beating-our-heads-against-the-wall coverage of Trump voters who still like Trump — with a changed viewpoint about the needle that supposedly doesn’t move.
Actually, it does move.
In looking back at the “Access Hollywood” episode, I came across an academic study published this year by scholars from the University of Massachusetts and Brandeis University that cuts against conventional wisdom. Entitling their paper “Just Locker Room Talk?,” the political scientists concluded that the revelations did make a difference, finding “consistent evidence that the release of the tape modestly, though significantly, reduced support for Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign.” These effects were similar among men and women, but noticeably larger among Republicans compared with Democrats.
Trump’s misdeeds do matter, and they do have a cumulative effect, which is why Republican pollster Frank Luntz has said the election is Biden’s to lose, and why Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives Trump only a 1 in 4 chance of winning reelection. (Which, of course, is roughly where things stood four years ago, sounding a cautionary note about polls and probability.)
Yes, Trump has his core loyalists who don’t budge, no matter how many outrages the news media reveals, nor what their hero does.
But not everyone holds firm. Not endlessly.
To use the medical metaphor, when it comes to changing their minds about Trump, a lot of Americans may be resistant. But they aren’t immune. The long-term effects of “Access Hollywood” — and everything that followed — are still playing out…
image…nytimes.com