With the media broadcasting drooping poll numbers everyday….
The virus and economy numbers gloomy?
And Donald Trump himself admitting he’s in trouble?
Why wouldn’t people begin to think Trump won’t get another miracle win?
FiveThirtyEight runs the numbers drop….
For months now, President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls. First, it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap, but since the middle of June, that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to 9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
But until very recently, voters didn’t seem all that convinced that Biden could win. In poll after poll, comparatively more voters said they thought Trump would win reelection in November. Now, though, that view may be shifting.
Over the past two and a half months, the share of voters who said they expect Trump to win has fallen from about 45 percent to around 40 percent in polling by The Economist/YouGov, as the chart below shows, while Biden’s share has slowly ticked up to where Trump’s numbers are. (Roughly a fifth of respondents still say they’re “not sure.”)
Trump’s decline may not seem that dramatic — and it’s not; it’s only a few points lower — but it’s notable because prior to June, he had trailed on this question only once since The Economist/YouGov first asked it in December.1
But it’s not just the Economist/YouGov polling that supports this finding. USA Today/Suffolk University found a more substantial drop in Trump’s numbers. In late June, 41 percent of voters said they expected Trump to win, whereas 50 percent said the same in the pollster’s late October 2019 survey. Conversely, 45 percent said Biden would win in June, an improvement from the 40 percent who picked the Democratic nominee in October. Republican pollster Echelon Insights has also observed a downward trend in Trump’s numbers: In a survey completed last week, 33 percent of likely voters said they expected Trump to win, which was down from 39 percent in the pollster’s June survey. Meanwhile, the share who thought Biden would win ticked up to 43 percent in July from 40 percent in June….
My Name Is Jack says
After proposing and seeing passed one of the biggest tax giveaways to the wealthy in history,Trump , a scant 90 or so days before the election is now expressing concern over income “inequality.”
Like.., Wow!
Scott P says
CG will be here shortly to declare this is proof Trump was a secret Democrat all along.
jamesb says
No
He’ll pitch Minie Mouse for Biden to pick so he’ll lose….
CG says
This claim that I somehow want Trump to win is really, really stupid. Why am I even bothering to post here if james is going to be that dishonest?
That being said, Minnie Mouse would be one of the stronger possible picks for Biden. While she is 18 years older than Biden, she has aged much better, and could help in Florida.
My Name Is Jack says
You haven’t learned that James is “dishonest?”
For the record?I believe you want Trump defeated.
Scott P says
I also believe CG wants Trump to lose.
The vast majority of his fellow Republicans and conservatives disagree with him though.
jamesb says
No doubt….
I believe MOST Republican lawmakers have a split feeling about Trump…
They want him to win to stay in power , but?
Would love to see him gone so they can wake up from a bad dream and the fear he can drop on them and their seats…
CG says
Forget though about Kamala Harris and Willie Brown (which I have never once mentioned in any post), Minnie Mouse would have to deal with that very old rumor about Goofy…