August 4, 2020 Primary Preview, Part 2: Congressional Races
This week kicks off the August primary season, and it is a big one with five midsize states going to the polls. As there is a lot going on, we are splitting the preview into two parts. Part 1 covered state-level races in X, while part 2 today will cover federal congressional contests. Poll closing times are as follows in ET and our liveblog will start at 8p ET tomorrow:
8 – KS (most), MI (most), MO || 10 – AZ || 11 – WA
So this dipshit walled out of the polling booth here in Missouri when asked to put on a mask.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mask-mandate-at-polls-irks-ellisville-man-who-walks-away-instead-of-voting/article_fc97537a-de36-5f33-bf73-83b8f700ce35.html#tracking-source=home-the-latest&utm_source=stltoday.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2F3-o-clock-stir&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=aa5c371516b0d52303cceee04ea283d0011ceefa
A quick look at his Facebook page reveals that–surprise surprise–he is an “All Lives Matter” Trump supporter.
Feel free to “boycott” again in Nocember dude!
Freedumb!
More on the primaries today….
The dog days of summer are usually a low-key time for members of Congress to be with their family and constituents back home. But this August 4, some are running for their political lives, challenged by insurgent candidates on the left and right.
Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 90 years, has suddenly become the center of the struggle between the two parties for control of the chamber. The Sunflower State also features another Republican primary race, between an indicted congressman and state official, that could affect the Democrats’ chances of picking up a House seat in a Trump district.
Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a founding member of the “squad,” is being challenged by one of her 2018 rivals, the moderate president of Detroit’s city council. In Missouri, Rep. William Lacy Clay, a longtime incumbent, is defending his seat in a race with progressive activist Cori Bush, whom he defeated two years ago.
The Republican primary race to replace Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, the only Libertarian in the House, will test whether “Never Trumper” attacks hold sway in the rare district represented by one.
And Missouri holds a vote for a ballot initiative on whether to expand Medicaid, which advocates say would provide insurance to more than 230,000 additional people.
Here are six things to watch for in Tuesday’s elections….
More…
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
I’ve seen enough: Roger Marshall (R) defeats Kris Kobach (R) in the #KSSEN GOP primary. Democrats had been banking on Kobach’s nomination after he blew the 2018 #KSGOV race.
…
Rep. Marshall wins Senate GOP primary in Kansas, prevails over Kobach..
WashPost…
Missouri Rep. Vicky Hartzler wins GOP primary
Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell easily wins House primary
Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver wins Democratic Primary
Missouri Rep. Sam Graves wins GOP primary
Missouri Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer wins GOP primary
Bollier wins Kansas Democratic Senate primary
The Hill…
In St. Louis, Kim Gardner has the 20 point lead I predicted three weeks ago.
If Scott wants to vote against her again in November, apparently there is a Republican named Daniel Zdrodowski who will be here opponent.
Bravo!
Medicaid expansion passes in Missouri!
And the Clay dynasty over Missouri’s 1st Congressional District has come to an end after over 50 years as Cori Bush has defeated Lacy Clay.
I wondered if Clay was losing in the last few days as he ran some pretty nasty ads–one comparing Cori Bush to Trump.
And yes Gardner won the Circuit Attorney’s race in St. Louis City. Your guess was right CG–though that race took a few twists and turns in recent days that were pretty local inside baseball that I doubt anyone outside of here heard or cares about.
Indicted Kansas Congressman Steve Watkins has been defeated by State Treasurer Jake LaTurner.
This takes away a potential Democrat House pickup opportunity, but hey, you pick up the Treasurer of Kansas at least until 2022 because of that.
Found this tidbit from Wasserman on the Medicaid Expansion that passed in MO yesterday
“In 2016, suburban St. Louis County voted 55%-39% for Hillary Clinton. In 2018, it voted 62%-36% for Claire McCaskill. In 2020, it voted 73%-27% (!) to expand Medicaid.”
It’s worth noting that Gov. Parson and the GOP legislature put expansion on the primary ballot as they thought it would be easier to defeat than in the general election.
The primary result in the Clay district and some others this year and going back to the rise of the “Squad” two years ago just reminds me of what was happening in Republican primaries during the Obama years.
In safe districts, the results will be the same but going too far in some places will leave electable races off the table, and it all speaks to a growing chasm within the party, just like was the case for Republicans and the populists.
All of the “squad” members represent safe Democratic districts to date. Including new member Cori Bush. MO-1 is D+29.
It’s worth noting the Republican nominee is the slightly less batshit crazy of the two COVID denying conspiracy theorists who ran in Missouir’s First this year.
Those types have also been nominated in marginal areas and have lost and that trend may continue.
Of course, Cori Bush and the others will be nationalized in future political campaigns.
There may be two Bushes in Congress next year and both would be Democrats.
I guess some bushes can’t be kept out of.
Will you consider Kim Gardner’s opponent in the general election?
I know nothing about Dan Zdrodowski–the Republican nominee for Circuit Attorney in St. Louis City.
GOP candidates who run here tend to be gadflys, completely unqualified, or otherwise ideologically unfit to represent the area (see the podcaster who won the MO-1 GOP primary)
I was very disappointed in Gardner’s performance as CA, but it’s worth noting Mary Pat Carl was fairly close on the issues. They both were in favor of closing the outdated city prison–called The Workhouse, they both believed that the office should not waste time prosecuting marijuana possession case (though Gardner was more absolute) and they both supported amnesty regarding missed court dates for non-violent cases. They are both opposed to the governor and GOP legislature’s pro-gun agenda.
Will Zdrodowski side with the vast majority of St. Louis residents or the Republican Governor and state legislature?
If it’s the former I’ll give him a chance. From what I have read online it seems he is boilerplate Republican. Which is why he is almost certainly doomed to get 15-20% of the vote tops here.
Congratulations on the Democratic turnout in Missouri yesterday Scott. Nancy just put your neighboring district on the red to blue list, and, of course, the Medicare vote was great. Caught your new Governor by surprise.
Yes I plan to help retire Ann Wagner in MO-2 in any way I can! In fact when I was called from the Cori Bush campaign I explained that the fight in MO-2 was my main focus and I was fairly agnostic on the primary in my home district. The caller agreed and didn’t push me, to his credit. We had a great conversation and I hope she hires this dude for her constituent office.
I plan to give to her opponent. Nancy is running her red to blue office here again and this race will be on the list. It is more difficult with large gatherings, but they are setting up phone banks that are safe. We will even have an outdoor phone bank here, rather unique, but given our weather, totally safe since everyone brings their own phones.
Wagner’s opponent–State Sen Jill Schupp–defeated Jay Ashcroft son of former Governor, Senator and Attorney General, to win her senate seat in 2014.
Wagner barely beat an unknown in 2018, and based on the Medicaid results yesterday where even my home county the super red St. Charles voted for expansion Schupp could garner just enough more votes there to tip the 2nd.
It’s worth noting the moron who was on the local news here yesterday for refusing to vote when he was told he needed to wear a mask at his polling station said his main motivation to vote was to vote against poor people getting more healthcare. He’s also a Trump Republican. I hope this dope “protests” again in November.
And there you have today’s modern Republican Party.
But, by all means, let’s talk about Ted Kennedy.
I thought it said he was voting in a D primary.
Did the St. Louis Cardinals attempt to vote?
The guy’s Facebook page is all anti-Biden, anti-Pelosi, anti-mask. This article doesn’t say what ballot he planned to pick when he voted (we don’t register by party here–you can pick one party’s ballot one primary and another the next), but makes clear he was against Medicaid expansion in the state.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mask-mandate-at-polls-irks-ellisville-man-who-walks-away-instead-of-voting/article_fc97537a-de36-5f33-bf73-83b8f700ce35.html
Speaking of anti maskers?
Some Republican legislators in Wisconsin are suing To overturn a mask mandate at polling places.
Well, to be fair, I voted in a D primary too.
but Im not an anti-masker.
Anti-maskers are almost all Republican voters
Did you vote for or against Elad Gross?
Eleanor Roosevelt’s father, James Roosevelt, is said to have declared (in reference to FDR’s affiliation) that while not all Democrats were horse-thieves, all horse-thieves, in his experience, were Democrats.
I voted for Gross. Sorry he didn’t make it. He said he would make cracking down on puppy mills would be a priority in office.
Rep. Carolyn Maloney will serve a 15th term in Congress after beating challenger Suraj Patel in their closer-than-expected New York City district Democratic primary.
Maloney, 74, held a narrow 648-vote advantage on attorney Patel, 36, after ballots cast in person were tallied on the night of their June 23 contest, 41% to 40%. But with more than 50% of the vote being cast by mailed-in absentee ballots, the final results were delayed until counting began on the week of July 6.
The New York State Board of Elections certified Maloney as the winner seven weeks later on Tuesday.
Maloney had earlier claimed victory by 3,700 votes on July 29 before official results were available. Patel didn’t concede either, calling the “massive and disproportionate irregularities” in tabulating ballots “a systematic disenfranchisement of thousands of voters” after the board was sued in federal court.
In a statement, Patel said the board mailed more than 33,000 ballots in New York City on June 22, “knowing there was no chance that voters could vote on time by June 23.” It also tossed out 12,500 ballots with missing signatures, no postmarks, or postmarks on June 24, he added.
“This election is a canary in the coal mine for November. As Democrats, we must be on the side of the voter. We can’t set a dangerous precedent for Donald Trump to attack vote by mail and conflate disenfranchisement with his goal of voter suppression. We hope the court or New York elected officials will re-enfranchise thousands of New Yorkers rather than cast their voices aside,” Patel wrote in a statement.
U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres this week ordered for the invalidated ballots to be included in the tally…..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/democrat-carolyn-maloney-clings-onto-house-seat-after-tight-new-york-primary-fight
The Maloney debacle is NOT shiny moment for the Empire state
Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty (R) won the Republican Senate primary in Tennessee, the AP reports….
Politicalwire…
On the Democrat side, the DSCC backed candidate with a military background, was upset by an African-American female liberal activist who barely campaigned and has virtually no campaign money.
The establishment backed Democrat was not going to win this race in Novembmer, but now this will not even be a contest apparently.
Apparently, this candidate, Mackler, who had raised over 2 million dollars, actually came in third.
CG, Is there a reason that you felt the need to add the words “African-American female” to your description of the candidate that you clearly feel was a poor choice.
It’s demonstrative of the political power this year among Democrats behind the BLM movement and also female candidates in general.
Sounds like the GOP contest in Tennessee was between two Republicans who would both blow Trump. But the one that would spit and not swallow won the primary. If “Never Trumpers” want to call that a victory–be my guest.
What Never Trumper called it a victory?
We are seeing a theme though of the more “establishment” i.e. electable choices winning Republican primaries and more left-wing activist types winning Democrat primaries.
Of course, that did not happen at the Presidential level, so perhaps that sets the general tone.
There was no discernible difference between these two Republicans as Scott noted.
The Republican “establishment “ has become Trumpized is all that’s happened.
So did that “establishment “ win a victory?Yes.
As to the Democrats?Tennessee has become rock ribbed Republican.In such one Party states you see these things happen occassionally in both parties .Who cares ?The Democrat has no chance, so no one pays attention.
Exactly! I have friends in Tennessee who have told me of the ads they saw between the two GOP candidates for Senate and they are virtually no different.
Both extremely pro-Trump and painting the other as someone who would not completely kowtow to the Trump crime family.
There was no “establishment” or “anti-establishment” choice in this primary. Just two complete Trumpites running for a safe Republican seat.
It’s been a few years since I was basically living in Nashville for a few months but I’ve heard the crazy growth in that city has continued unabated.
So I’m surprised Tennessee is not showing any sign of being remotely competitive for Democrats in the same way neighboring North Carolina is. I know NC started a little more friendly to the Democrats but it seems as though there has been absolutely no change in Tennessee.
In fact Wasserman was just on MSNBC and mentioned what a NY Times article recently noted–that Midwestern and Sunbelt suburbs like St. Louis, Omaha, and Dallas/Ft. Worth are prime pickup targets for Democratic House candidates this year. No mention of any of the Tennessee seats. In fact Jim Cooper’s seat is the only one held by a Democrat in the Nashville metro and it is only listed as a D+7.
A GOP candidate in a very competitive Congressional primary in Kansas actually accepted the endorsement of Jeb Bush and said this:
“Governor Bush has been a leading voice in the Republican party for many years, and it is an honor to receive support from someone who has spent their life advancing the message of conservatism, fiscal responsibility, and the value of life” said Amanda Adkins.
And she won! I will take that as a good sign.