…from the twitter universe …
@Redistrict
Basically, what’s happening: in many red counties in FL/PA, thousands of registered Ds who voted Trump in ’16 have officially switched to R or, ahem, exited the electorate. But on balance, *new* registrants have skewed much more D/unaffiliated than R.
Quote Tweet
Tom Bonier
@tbonier
Start with PA, Dems have a 15 point advantage among those who have registered since Nov of 2016.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
None of this is to say that Dems don’t have more room to fall in a lot of heavily “Trump Democrat” counties. They do. But the bottom line: we can’t draw a lot of strong conclusions about 2020 based solely on party registration trends.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Naiem
@Nemoe_
Replying to @Politidope
Here’s Kentucky senate primary turnout Democrats 544,062 Republicans 413,815 Unbelievable, Mitch should be very worried. nytimes.com/interactive/20
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Not making this up: so far in 2020, party registration switches in Chester Co., PA (median income $96k) have run 83% pro-D. In Fayette Co., PA (median income $44k), they’ve run 82% pro-R.
Quote Tweet
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
In other words, it’s possible – even likely – that the universe of voters *exiting* the PA electorate is both: 1) more heavily Dem in party registration 2) more heavily pro-Trump …than the universe of voters entering.
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
And before you go saying “there are four times as many people in Chester than Fayette!”…there are a lot more PA voters who live in places like Fayette than Chester.
(Is THIS why trump all the sudden is ok with Florida main-in voting???)
I found this stuff from Wasserman somewhat confusing.
Of course sometimes “twittering” complete with all the jargon leaves me a little bewildered.
He seems to be saying ,basically.
Well it’s all a wash…
Ok