The Republican US Senator always pulls it out in the end….
But this time he’s gotta be a bit worried…..
South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race between three-term incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham and his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison is becoming more competitive, according to a political campaign ratings publication.
The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted the Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
The ratings change follows polling that showed the race tied, including an AugustQuinnipiac University poll that had each candidate at 44 percent with fewer than three months to go before Election Day. Graham’s campaign has questioned the methodology of the polling, saying it did not ask enough Republicans in South Carolina to project an accurate estimate of where the electorate stands. It also dismissed an earlier poll because it was conducted online.
Graham’s campaign said it’s own internal polls shows the senator is on track to win reelection.
“South Carolinians don’t give any credence to political prognostications based on skewed polls and millions of liberal dollars from California,” T.W. Arrighi, Graham’s campaign spokesman, said Monday. “Our internal polling has us on track for a decisive victory in November, but Senator Graham is fighting for every vote as he never takes anything for granted.”
Color me skeptical of this.
Most polls show Trump with a lead of 5-7% in S.C.
Assuming those are correct and There’s no reason to think they’re not,In order for Harrison to win a lot of people who are going to vote for Trump are going to also vote for Harrison.
That really doesn’t make sense.
True, a lot of Republicans here dont like or trust Graham ,who at various times has been labeled a “liberal” by his GOP enemies , but to believe they would actually vote for Harrison ( a real liberal) just to spite Graham seems quite a stretch to me.
Harrison is running a good campaign and will undoubtedly do better than Democrats usually do against Lindsay( last time aDemocratic State Senator won 40%) but win?No I dont see it.Indeed ,if Harrison wins that would likely indicate aDemocratic sweep.
Call it 53-54 % for Graham .
I agree on the Graham squeak by….
But THAT close?
Then there’s the contrary view offered by a Republican acquaintance of mine.
He hates Graham with a passion but ala our recently departed friend, CG, just can’t bring himself to vote for a Democrat.He says that he will just skip the Senate race and claims that “thousands of other Republicans “ will too.He pointed out that three nobodies collectively polled about 35% against Graham in the primary.
Provocatively , I pointed out that if somehow Harrison managed to defeat Graham that seat could be the difference in who controls the Senate.His response?”I don’t care.I just think Graham is a total fraud.”
Now that’s some hate there!
I listen to a couple of political podcasts and I’ve heard the 2016 Senatec race in Missouri brought up as the apex of ticket splitting.
While Trump was winning Missouri by 18 points Sen Roy Blunt only defeated then Sec of State Jason Kander by 3 pts. Kander was a decorated vet and Blunt has always been viewed a bit warily by the right wing base but even so a 15 pt rate officer splitting is pretty rare these days.
If Harrison is to have a chance in SC it seems he would need a similarly high rate of GOP defection of Graham compared to Trump’s margin. Or the Pres race in SC would have to tighten significantly.
The example by Jack is widespread….
GOPer’s knowing their guy is no good , but the GOPer being Anti-Democratic stronger…
But i did a post about a week ago about Republicans defecting from Trump and the party…. Batch of them where in the screen last night in the convention piece…
Another post on Lindsey Graham’s race ….
…Republican senators facing tough reelection races this fall steered clear of criticizing President Donald Trump after his stunning admission that he downplayed the severity of the crisis caused by the spread of coronavirus, dodging questions regarding his remarks or defending his overall response to the pandemic.
For months, Republican senators have praised the President’s response to the health and economic crisis, the central issue in their political campaigns, even as polling suggests that a majority of Americans disapprove of it, recognizing many of their own races depend in large part on the President’s performance in November.
But Democrats have seized upon Trump’s latest comments made to Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward in February and March. In the interviews for Woodward’s forthcoming book “Rage,” the President said that he didn’t want “to create a panic” about the spread of coronavirus, so he liked “playing it down” even though the airborne virus was potentially five times “more deadly” than the flu.
After CNN and other outlets reported this week on Trump’s comments, some vulnerable Republican senators declined to comment….
More…
(If Harrison wins?…It WILL be a Democratic ‘Wave’ election…)
Jessica Taylor
@JessicaTaylor
DSCC announces they’re going in with a seven-figure investment to help Jaime Harrison, who raised $1M just yesterday after the Qpoll showed him tied with Graham.
Jack thinks ole’ Lindsey isn’t in trouble around his state….
I’m betting on this being contagious ….
There has been a rating change in this race by Cook and RCP….
From solid GOP….
To leans….
Hmmmm?
Well with the poll numbers,you pretty much have to go with that.
However, to believe Harrison has a real chance ,you have to believe that thousands of Trump voters(Trump leads in the state by a margin of 5-6%) are going to vote for Harrison against a down the line Trumper.
I just don’t believe that is going to happen.
As I’ve stated previously,the only way I see Harrison winning is with a Democratic blowout and Trump either barely winning the state ,or even losing.
I share ur doubts but Trump won, eh?
Any idea on the primary democratic vote numbers?
Midterms?
Could the Dem vote be REALLY UP?
In NC the polling for down ballot is good Dem…
I would could the down ballot actually give Biden the state by a close margin?
The SC trend for Lindsey’s job IS inching away from him….
Interesting day…..
I’ll have posts on the CR, Trump trying answer a question plaguing him for weeks and the polling update….