We knew it would narrow….
But this is a bit early….
The good thing for Biden?
Donald Trump’s poll numbers are still in the low 40’s….
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 7.8 percentage points in the national polling average, 49.9% to 42.1%.
Since capturing the Democratic nomination, Biden’s lead has been remarkably stable. He’s been at or around 50% since early March. His topline support has barely budged.
In fact, Biden’s lead has only grown over this time because Trump’s support has faded. In early March, Trump was polling at 45.6% support. Now he’s down to 42.1%.
What’s has Democrats nervous is that Hillary Clinton led through much of the 2016 campaign only to have Trump close the gap in the final weeks of the race. Trump never closed it completely — Clinton still won the national vote by 1.9% — but he closed it enough to win a handful of key battleground states and the electoral vote.
But there are at least three key reasons Biden’s lead is probably stronger than Clinton’s:
- There are fewer well-known third party candidates running. Roughly 6% of the vote went to third party candidates in 2016, the highest percentage since Ross Perot ran under the Reform Party banner and won 8.4% in 1996.
- Biden is more well-liked than Clinton. Of the voters than didn’t like either Trump or Clinton in 2016, the exit polls showed Trump winning them 47% to 30%. But that’s not happening this time. Polls show Biden with a huge lead over Trump among these voters, 55% to 21%.
- Trump seems stuck below 46%. In early March, Trump was at 45.9% — nearly matching his 46.1% in the 2016 election. Since then he’s only faded as the pandemic and economic turmoil has ravaged the country.
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