Those who said he wouldn’t where wrong…
We’ll have to wait for a week to see if Trump got anything also…
But the media was hostile to the Republicans and their convention has been bracketed by the March on Washington even yesterday…
Joe Biden continues to lead in the polls coming up on two months from the election…
In three weeks the two guys get to do their first face to face debate….
There will be no audience …
Mail-in voting starts a week before the first debate in some states…
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An ABC News/Ipsos poll released at the beginning of the week found that Joe Biden’s favorability rating had risen by five percentage points, to 45 percent, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention.
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That was driven particularly by Democrats: 86 percent of partisans expressed a positive opinion of him, up seven points from Ipsos’ previous poll from the week before the Democratic convention.
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A Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania, conducted during the week of the D.N.C., found Mr. Biden leading President Trump in the key swing state by seven points.
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Pennsylvania voters tended to say Mr. Biden was better suited to the job of president in various ways — though handling the economy was a notable exception. Forty-eight percent said Mr. Trump would be a better steward of the economy, compared with 44 percent who chose Mr. Biden….
image…Erin Schaff/NY Times
A “bounce” is generally considered movement in the support for election ,not such things as “approval/ disapproval” or “who would do a better “job on specific issues type questions.
No,none of the polls in the week after the convention showed any such thing.
Once again, it’s you who are wrong, a common occurrence here.
I specifically say Biden has had a bounce in his approval…
The linked piece says the same thing Jack….
As for the Pa. results?
Franklin and Marshall gets a B/C rating from your guru, Nate Silver.Nota great poll to get excited about.
Nate Silver is having a bad week …He, He, he….We all do from time to time…
His model is under attack in the twitter universe and the guy is having severe worries about blowing the election call….
We do have good polls and bad ones….
But we agree the numbers will close as the election gets closer
First snap poll after GOP convention give’s Trump a bounce in the amount of Biden…
Cameron Easley
.@MorningConsult is out with the first post-GOP convention poll, showing @realDonaldTrump has cut into @JoeBiden’s lead: morningconsult.com/2020/08/29/pos…
We’ll need more polling to confirm this….
Nate Cohen
In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually… bounces. Looking back, incumbent presidents would usually be expected to fare worse than their standing post-convention. Minus-6 it’s not exactly what you want your upside to be
——
Anyway, this is all an exercise. Who knows what the post-convention polls will look like in a week. And even then, we’ll still have to wait longer before we see whether any movement persists.
Bottom line: we won’t have a great sense of where we’re at until 9/14 or so
Morning Consult
Despite improvement in the head-to-head numbers for Donald Trump, the RNC did not improve voters’ perceptions about him as the DNC did for Joe Biden.
bit.ly/3hFC41B
A new Yahoo New-YouGov poll with Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump shrinking to 6 points, 47% to 41%, his smallest margin in nearly two months.
New Yahoo News-YouGov Poll: Biden’s lead over Trump shrinks to 6 points after the RNC — his smallest margin in months
Andrew Romano
West Coast Correspondent,Yahoo News•August 29, 2020
The presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has tightened after this week’s Republican National Convention, according to a new Yahoo News-YouGov poll, with Biden’s lead shrinking to 6 points — his smallest margin in nearly two months.
The convention appears to have boosted perceptions of Trump’s “strength” and convinced a small number of former Biden supporters to move toward the president. But the unrest in Kenosha, Wis., following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a major talking point at the RNC, has not had a clear impact on voters’ choices — at least not yet.
For its latest Yahoo News survey, which was conducted from Aug. 27 to Aug. 28, YouGov recontacted respondents who participated in Yahoo News-YouGov poll one month earlier to gauge how the RNC and other events have affected their views.
The poll taken at the end of July showed Biden with a lead of a little less than 9 percentage points. In the new survey, those same registered voters give Biden an edge of just over 6 points (47 percent to 41 percent).
That shift — about two and a half percent overall — is the result of roughly 1 percent of registered voters switching from Biden to Trump and a smaller number who previously said they would not vote now saying they will vote for Trump.
These small changes were enough to transform a big Biden lead into a moderate Biden lead.
(Before and after the Democratic National Convention, Yahoo News and YouGov surveyed a separate sample of registered voters who gave Biden an 11-point lead.)
The new Yahoo News-YouGov poll shows that nearly every voter in America has made up his or her mind, with 96 percent Biden and Trump supporters now saying they have decided how they will vote — up 2 percent from when the same voters were surveyed in late July. Only 8 percent remain undecided. There was no change in Congressional voting intention over the same period: 49 percent of registered voters say they will vote Democratic and 38 percent say they will vote Republican.
According to the poll, 62 percent of Republicans and only 34 percent of Democrats say they watched the RNC — meaning that 42 percent of registered voters (and 51 percent of all adults) did not watch either convention. Just a third of the public (32 percent) watched both conventions. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats and 33 percent of Republicans say they watched the DNC….
Yahoo! News
Actually,in my view?
A Six point lead is right about where it should be.
The country is way too polarized to think that a double digit or even a near double digit lead would hold as Election Day draws nearer.
Yeah if 6 points holds up it would likely be 51 or 52% Biden 45 or 46% Trump and 3-4% total third party.
That would somewhere between Obamas 2008 and 2012 margins if victory.
If that is the final result it would show that Trump kept basically the same share of the popular vote from 2016, but Biden getting most of the benefit from less third party voting.
I don’t think a case can be made for third party candidates getting the same or more of the vote than 4 yrs ago. As this and other polls note voters are more solidified in their preferences this year and undecided share is much smaller.
As people will actually be voting in the next few weeks, it’s past time to quit worrying about Trumps “likeability.”
Yet ABC released a poll yesterday showing only 31% “like ” Trump. One would think with that level of Dislike he’s heading for a blowout loss!
As I mentioned earlier,Trump has shown the ability to get people to vote for him Even if they personally don’t “like” him.
Accordingly,it’s way past time for these polls on irrelevant matters such as ”likeability,” approval” or “issues” to end or at least receive little attention.
The Only Thing that matters now is the Election itself!
Nice try Jack….
We’ll still see polling till Election Day and report on it….
NOBODY has put forward that Donald J. Trump will win the popular vote…
THAT fits with the favoribilty and SHOULD what the election is deciding….
Agreed with u guys but let’s remember….
IT’S WHERE THE THE VOTE IS…
NOT HOW MUCH….
Yeh ok.
I really think we all understand the Electoral College.
I KNOW WE do…..
How much of the public do u think know much of what we discuss here?
I don’t know ,nor is that relevant to anything.
What’s your point?
That someone say in Wisconsin says to themselves”Gee if I was in Illinois I wouldn’t bother to vote but since I’m in a swing state ,guess I better?”
Thats stupid.
People are going to vote because they want to vote not because of their knowledge or ignorance of the Electoral College.
You really think up so weird stuff.
What?
People here get asked questions all the time because we know stuff…
sometimes their vote IS influenced by our comments…
Give us a break Jack
50 or 51% would put Biden at or about the halfway point for winning Democratic candidates:
1964 – 61.05% — LBJ
1936 – 60.80% — FDR 2
1932 – 57.41% — FDR 1
1828 – 55.97% — Jackson 2
1940 – 54.74% — FDR 3
1832 – 54.23% — Jackson 3
1944 – 53.39% — FDR 4
2008 – 52.87% — Obama 1
2012 – 51.06% — Obama 2
1876 – 50.92% — Tilden (lost)
1852 – 50.84% — Pierce
1836 – 50.83% — Van Buren 1
1976 – 50.08% — Carter 1
1960 – 49.72% — JFK
1948 – 49.55% — Truman
1844 – 49.54% — Polk
1916 – 49.24% — Wilson 2
1996 – 49.23% — Clinton 2
1884 – 48.85% — Cleveland 1
1888 – 48.63% — Cleveland 2 (lost)
2000 – 48.38% — Gore (lost)
2004 – 48.27% — Kerry (lost)
1880 – 48.22% — Hancock (lost)
2016 – 48.18% H, Clinton (lost)
1868 – 47.34% — Seymour (lost)
1840 – 46.81% — Van Buren 2 (lost)
1896 – 46.71% — Bryan 1 (lost)
1892 – 46.02% — Cleveland 3
1988 – 45.65% — Dukakis (lost)
1900 – 45.52% — Bryan 2 (lost)
1856 – 45.29% — Buchanan
1864 – 44.95% — McClellan (lost)
1952 – 44.33% — Stevenson 1 (lost)
1872 – 43.78% — Greeley (lost)
1908 – 43.04% — Bryan 3 (lost)
1992 – 43.01% — Clinton 1
1968 – 42.72% — Humphrey (lost)
1848 – 42.49% — Cass (lost)
1956 – 41.97% — Stevenson 2 (lost)
1912 – 41.84% — Wilson 1
1824 – 41.34% — Jackson 1 (lost)
1980 – 41.01% — Carter 2 (lost)
1928 – 40.80% — Smith (lost)
1984 – 40.56% — Mondale (lost)
1904 – 37.59% — Parker (lost)
1972 – 37.52% — McGovern (lost)
1920 – 34.15% — Cox (lost)
1860 – 29.52% — Douglas (lost)
1924 – 28.82% — Davis (lost)