I REALLY do NOT think Joe Biden can win Texas over Donald Trump come November 3rd…
But polls HAVE been dropping towards Joe Biden away from Donald Trump in the last few weeks…
We’ll see how this plays in the next few weeks….
A Texas win for Biden would mean a Biden blow out win over Donald Trump…
Hillary Clinton lost the state badly to Trump….
New CBS News/YouGov polls show President Donald Trump is in trouble in three states he won in 2016. He’s tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in Arizona (46% to 46%), a state he won by four points in 2016. Trump’s down 48% to 42% in Florida, a state he took by a point in 2016.
But it’s the third state, Texas, where the eye popping result comes from. It’s Trump 46% to Biden’s 45%, a result well within any margin of error.
It’s pretty clear looking at the data that Texas is a swing state in the 2020 election. The 2020 campaign could be the first time Democrats captured the Lone Star State in a presidential election since 1976.
The CBS News/YouGov poll is not an outlier over the last month. There have been eight polls released publicly since the beginning of June. The result is that Biden and Trump are basically tied, with Biden up by a mere 0.3 points in Texas.
Importantly, and unlike in other states, the polls in Texas have not overestimated Democrats over the last few cycles. If anything Democrats actually slightly outperformed their final polls in the 2016 presidential race and 2018 Senate races.
Things may change the closer we get to the election, but Texas really is competitive at this point.
Texas has gotten progressively more competitive during Trump’s time as a candidate and officeholder. A big statewide victory has eluded Democrats, though many races have come within single digits for the first time in a generation. In fact, the state seemed, if anything, to move to the left in 2018, as Democrats were able to achieve wins in some key congressional races.
A Biden win would be a manifestation of that trend on the statewide level….
Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016.
States have shifted by double digits between Prea election cycles in the past.
Iowa shifted pretty hard to the r
GOP between 2012 and 2016.
Indiana shifted hard to the Dems between 2004 and 2008 (only to shift back in 2012)
Iowa looks to be competitive now after going to Trump by 9 points last time.
Texas being such a big state makes a shift that much more consequential to the electoral map.
If it goes blue there is absolutely no chance for Republicans to win.
True THAT Scott….
Confirmation of the CBS poll numbers….
But a LOT of undecided’s that should go mostly for Trump in the end….
A new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll in Texas finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 46% to 41% with 14% undecided….
Politicalwire…
Why will the undecided voters break mostly to Trump James?
Simple…..
It IS Texas…..
That’s not an answer with any statistical information to back it up.
Sort of like saying suburban Republicans delivered the Democratic nomination to Biden.
Well not quite that bad!
At this point, I still expect Trump to win Texas because he won by so much last time.
I would too Zreebs, but if you read through this thread you’ll see that folks are still claiming that somehow Republicans voted in the Democratic primary for Biden.
Without evidence, just as there is no evidence that the undecided voters in this poll will break for Trump. Especially since the Republican leadership of Texas is killing its citizens.
Even if the undecided are generally Republican or favorable to Republican a good chunk of them may just stay home in November.
Unlike 2016 this whole election is a referendum on Trump. If people are undecided on whether they want four more years or not it’s not a good place for the incumbent to be.
No it’s not.
The only reason Trump is doing badly in Texas is the pandemic.His disapprovals number for his handling of it nationally is now running in some polls as high as 67% .
That’s pretty devastating.It indicates that even some people who still support him disapprove of his handling of the pandemic.Its unlikely those numberS will improve as long as the pandemic lasts.Indeed, the likelihood is they may drop further.
Texas has been particularly hard hit .Its so bad that Trumpite Gov. Greg Abbott .who a few weeks ago was belittling mask wearing ,is now musing about a full lockdown.
All this anger is landing on Trump.When things are bad ,people blame the incumbent and Trump has done nothing to change that old saying.
Certainly ,history suggests a Trump victory in Texas.However, as Dr. Fauci says, “the virus is now in control.”If it continues this bad or worsens in Texas,then a Democratic victory is no longer that far fetched.
Romney won Texas by 16 points.
Trump won Texas by just 9 points.
Clearly, something had already started by 2016.
Just as Trump was able to win over a lot of traditionally non-Republicans to win some Rust Belt States, he suffered in Texas because a lot of typically Republican suburbanites did not vote for him.
We saw even more of this in Texas in 2018 as Romney voters actually voted Democrat for Congress in suburban districts. These are the kind of voters who voted strategically for Biden in primaries where they could around the country and played a major part in his winning the nomination.
These same voters are a big reason why Biden *could* win the state. Right now, I would say 50/50 chance.
50/50 is pretty close to what I think the odds of a Biden victory in Texas.
Maybe more like 48% chance Biden wins, 52% chance it goes to Trump again.
I would give the odds of winning TX as Trump 60%, Biden 40%. Keep in mind that The GOP organization in TX is much stronger than the Democrats to get out the vote.
Trump Leads In Missouri
A new Saint Louis University/YouGov poll in Missouri finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race by seven points, 50% to 43%.
Trump won Missouri by nearly 19 percentage points in 2016.
I know a couple of other polls have shown Biden up or down by 2 points in Missouri, but my guess is that the general election results in November will more closely resemble this poll.
GW Bush by 7 pts in 2004
If there truly is a landslide nationwide in the making we could be looking at a result similar to 2008–when Missouri was the closest state in the nation with McCain besting Obama by only 3,000 votes out of almost 3,000,000 cast.
Of course considering the changing electoral map a vote that close here in MO would in all likelihood mean that Biden has taken AZ, GA and TX–states that McCain won in 2008–and is either closing in on or eclipsing 400 electoral votes.
Dave Leip’s Tipping-point state chart (based on the latest local polls) agrees with you, Scott.
By the time a Biden sweep carries Missouri, he will have already won 427 electoral votes, including those of North Carolina (D ’08), Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Ohio (D ’08-12) and Iowa (D 2000 & 2008-12).
[state; electors; Biden %; Trump %; D margin; cumulative Biden electoral votes]
New Hampshire 4 49% 42% 7% 247
Michigan 16 50% 44% 6% 263
Florida 29 48% 42% 6% 292
Minnesota 10 49% 44% 5% 302
North Carolina 15 50% 46% 4% 317
Nevada 6 44% 41% 3% 323
Georgia 16 48% 45% 3% 339
Texas 38 47% 45% 2% 377
Ohio 18 46% 45% 1% 395
Arizona 11 46% 46% 0% 406
Iowa 6 45% 46% -1% 412
Arkansas 6 45% 47% -2% 418
Utah 6 41% 44% -3% 424
Alaska 3 45% 48% -3% 427
Missouri 10 44% 48% -4% 437
Tennessee 11 42% 51% -9% 448
South Carolina 9 42% 52% -10% 457
Indiana {D’08] 11 39% 49% -10% 468
Missouri may have backed Carter [in 1976 only] and Clinton, but she’s long supported GOP presidential candidates
I could buy down to Arizona 406
But minus the Georgia probably ….
Still Not a bad margin win….
Historical comparisons are very treacherous, especially for states like Texas, whose populations and electorates have changed enormously since 1950 and even more greatly since 1920 or 1880.
But for what little it’s worth (chiefly curiosity value):
The Lone Star State (i.e. her white residents) supported every Democratic candidate from Horace Greeley in 1872 (after Reconstruction and readmission) to John W. Davis in 1924.
Then (together with Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia and all the border states) she voted in 1928 against the wet, metropolitan Catholic Al Smith in favor of the dry Quaker from Iowa, Herbert Hoover.
She reverted back to support FDR, Truman and the New & Fair Deals in 1932-48 (the Thirties & Forties), but voted for Texas-born Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 & 1956 (the Fifties) before voting straight D for JFK, LBJ & HHH in the Sixties.
Then she voted against George McGovern in 1972 but for Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Texas has since voted for every Republican nominee from Ronald Reagan in 1980 to Donald Trump in 2016, sometimes with huge margins and sometimes with rather small ones.
So, looking down from space without other data, Texas could look like a historically swing state, or a swingable one.
However, that’s not really looking at the huge changes in both the numbers, the ethnic composition, the urbanization, and the occupations of Texas’s voters.