Politico takes them to task on a Florida poll that has Biden ahead there by 13 % points…
A Quinnipiac University poll showed two statewide Democrats, Sen. Bill Nelson and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum, seven points ahead of their Republican opponents.
The numbers signaled a political upheaval in the nation’s largest swing state: The ascension of Republican Rick Scott, who was running for the Senate after two terms as governor, would be over, and Democrats would hold the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1999.
But when it was over, three things were true: Scott won. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won. And Quinnipiac — once again — lost.
Now, as the presidential election heats up, the nation’s largest swing state is snubbing the marquee pollster. When Quinnipiac dropped a survey last week that showed former Vice President Joe Biden up 13 points over President Donald Trump, Florida didn’t flinch.
“I don’t even look at them anymore,” said Ryan Tyson, a veteran Republican Florida pollster and founder of The Tyson Group, which works with both political parties. “They are not really tied to reality.”
The Hamden, Conn., university has built an outsized reputation as a go-to public polling pro. Its eagerly anticipated surveys hijack cable TV news chyrons, are dissected by talking heads, and can help cement a state-of-play narrative in important campaigns.
But in the battleground state of Florida, which is bracing for what could be a bruising and close presidential election, Quinnipiac’s polls are being met with a shrug. Or an eyeroll.
In a statement, Quinnipiac defended its techniques and noted its predictions had come within 2 points of the winner’s margin of victory in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections.
But getting 2018’s top-of-ticket races wrong was just one example. After a series of recent flubs, the Q-Poll’s reputation among Florida politicos and news outlets has been eroding. Florida no longer trusts the Q-Poll.
“It’s three letters: Meh,” said longtime Florida Republican consultant David Johnson. On the plus side, Quinnipiac has united Florida’s professional political class, Republicans and Democrats, on at least one issue.
The skepticism was on full display last week when Quinnipiac released the pollshowing Biden topping Trumpby 13 points among self-identified registered voters, a lead that would represent a landslide win in a state where skin-of-the-teeth victories are the norm. Florida had three statewide recounts in 2018 and its past two presidential elections were decided by roughly a single point.
Even Biden’s allies scoffed at the data….