This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.
We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality.
- Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
- Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
- Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
- Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.
These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.
In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.
Plugged in strategists on both sides tell us that Trump is running behind in districts he easily carried in 2016. As one GOP strategist told us this week, “I’d be surprised if any House GOP challenger is able to outperform Trump — they are tied to him.” Meanwhile, Democratic Senate candidates — even those in second and third-tier races — are pulling in eye-popping second-quarter fundraising totals.
Can things change between now and November? Of course. So, this comes with that important caveat. But, we also know that the president is not interested in changing his approach or focus. As one strategist who has been doing extensive focus group work with suburban voters tells us, “they are mostly done with Trump.” …
The last line here from the strategist saying “suburban voters are mostly done with Trump” could wind up being the epitaph of the Trump Presidency.
The Lincoln Project is once again branching out from Trump and is taking on individual Republican Senators for their support of him.
It’s really hard to see how the members of this group are going to be welcomed back into the GOP even in a post Trump era.
Indeed it’s almost as if the LP is trying to create a rupture within the Republican Party itself.
Good for them.
The best thing to ensure that we have two respectable parties in the future is to root out all Republicans who support Trump now.
They will be looked at as visionary …
Trump IS gonna be dogshit to a even increasing number of GOPer’s next year
I don’t think I’ve ever seen the polling, but my feeling is that most Republicans (or at least a substantial minority of them) thought well of Joe McCarthy (R-Wisc.) even after his disgrace in 1954.
There are still Republicans who think that Richard Nixon was a great president who got a raw deal; and their desire for payback was a large factor in Bill Clinton’s impeachment 25 years later.
It certainly would be nice to think of a responsible G.O.P. or G.O.P. successor — even if dominated by conservatives on the three-leggèd stool of social, defense and economic issues, e.g. Bob Dole, Barry Goldwater, John Boehner or Tim Scott — to face a principled big-tent Democratic Party, but I just don’t see that happening.
Defectors from the current Republican Party may form a much smaller in-between party, but the two-party dynamics of the U.S. suggest that most of them will either become Democrats (like Leon Panetta) or drop away from politics.
I agree with your analysis.
In my view, even with Trump defeated and other Republicans trying to distance themselves from their past association with him, the LP people will not be welcomed back into the fold.
A few may drift into the Democratic Party .That would actually be a good thing but,once again in agreement, a lot will simply fade away.
Now the NeverTrumpers ,who simply opposed Trump but rarely uttered any negative remarks about individual Republicans , will likely be welcomed back with a “let bygones be bygones” attitude and will rapidly return to their usual Republican personas(see Bill Kristol,CG , etc)
CNN/ORC Poll. July 18-20, 2014. N=1,012 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
“Now thinking for a moment about the Watergate affair during President Richard Nixon’s administration. It has now been 40 years since Nixon resigned as president. Which of these two statements comes closer to your own point of view about Watergate? It was a very serious matter because it revealed corruption in the Nixon Administration. OR, It was just politics — the kind of thing both parties engage in.”
Very serious
matter
Just
politics
Unsure
% % %
7/18-20/2014 51 46 3
http://pollingreport.com/
In February of 1954, Americans held a 46% favorable, 36% unfavorable image of [Joseph] McCarthy. But by March, his image had turned negative, and in a June 1954 Gallup survey, 34% of Americans said they had a favorable opinion of McCarthy, while 45% had an unfavorable opinion.
Frank Newport at Gallup
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/176441/public-opinion-recent-history.aspx
The current 35-40% of the population…GOPer’s ….KNOW their guy is doing unscrupulous stuff , but detest Democrats MORE ….
Been saying here that that IS happening DSD…
There ARE GOPer’s that do NOT go along with the majority of other lemmings
Yup…..
The fractures around the edges ARE occurring…