The National polls are actually good to just show trends….
It’s the state polls that count….
And we’re still 4 months out for the actual vote….
I expect Biden’s margins to drop 3-5% points which would negate the bottom swing states like NC, OH ,GA, and Iowa right now….
Biden Expands His Lead Nationally
A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally, 47% to 38% among registered voters, up four points from his lead in April.
Trump’s approval rate is a dismal 39% to 52%.
…
Trump’s Electoral College Edge Is Slipping
FiveThirtyEight: “Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.”
In case you missed it, the consensus electoral map was updated earlier today.
More Polling Shows Battleground Leads for Biden
June 25, 2020 at 1:19 pm EDT
New battleground polls from Redfield and Wilton:
Arizona: Biden 43%, Trump 39%
Florida: Biden 45%, Trump 41%
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%
North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 39%
Wisconsin: Biden 45%, Trump 36%
Now, those polls are rather more comforting than the 1% to 3% Biden margins in most of the battleground states besides Florida (D+7%) in one of the previous surveys you published.
Biden Opens Wide Leads In the Battleground States
“President Trump has lost significant ground in the six battleground states that clinched his Electoral College victory in 2016, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, with Joe Biden opening double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
“Mr. Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election. Mr. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.”
“Mr. Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.”
Here are the numbers:
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%
Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%
Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%
Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%
North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%
Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%
The man is beating himself ever time he opens his mouth or does anything
Harry Enten
1 thing I should note… These NYT polls show Biden’s lead widening cause Trump is dropping more so than Biden rising. Fox/Marquette don’t show the same phenomenon.
Sabato….
— We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week.
— Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
— This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings; 204 are at least leaning to Donald Trump; and there are 66 electoral votes in the Toss-up category.
— Biden is decently positioned, although his current lead may be inflated.
More…
I’m printing the summary from the Sabato piece above from Kyle Kondik…
It plays to this post’s title….
And the current Open Thread….
…
The big picture
With these changes — Florida to Toss-up, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic — Biden is at 268 electoral votes at least leaning to him, Trump is at 204, and there are 66 electoral votes worth of Toss-ups: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District.
At this point, we thought we might remind readers what we’re trying to do with these ratings. They are not designed to reflect current polls, but rather our best guess as to the outcome of the election. The states and districts we call Toss-ups are ones where we don’t feel there is a clear favorite for the fall; the ones we call leans, likely, or safe are those where we feel there is a favorite, to varying degrees.
If we based these ratings just on polls, Trump probably would be in worse shape. Trump’s leads, if they exist at all, are currently tiny in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. Yet we are keeping all in the Leans Republican column, because we have some level of confidence that, ultimately, Trump should be able to win all four states, even if that’s not obvious from polls now. That these states seem so competitive is a telling indicator about the overall state of the race: Biden needs none of them to win, while Trump needs all of them (and then some).
Overall, the president’s problems are many. He planned to run on a strong economy, which now is in ruins, albeit for reasons not of his making. The pain may become more acute without further federal intervention, something the president himself called for earlier this week.
Trump’s responses to two current crises, that of coronavirus and of racial inequalities in policing, have both been unpopular. A few months ago, we wondered if Trump might find himself in the position of Jimmy Carter in 1980: an unpopular president presiding over a bad year in American life. That is certainly one possibility.
But another possibility is that Trump, who has never been popular but has been resilient, is suffering because of the intense focus on him, as opposed to on his opponent, Joe Biden. There are reasons why Trump and his campaign continually ridicule Biden remaining in the shadows: They need to draw Biden out and hope he makes mistakes, so Trump can make himself look better by comparison. The spotlight is clearly off Biden right now, which Democrats have grown not to mind. But the bright lights will move to Biden at some point, and we are curious to see what happens when they do.
Additionally, we have to be on guard for polling, particularly state polling, that may inflate Biden’s lead. Steve Shepard of Politico wrote recently about some of the remaining concerns with state polling. And, going back to Michigan, one of the pollsters that did well there in 2016, Republican pollster Trafalgar Group, recently showed Biden up just one point there. So not all of the numbers have been bad for Trump lately, but most of them have been.
Overall, our suspicion is that Biden’s lead is artificially high right now.
But the problem for Trump is that he was still behind Biden in times that were happier for the president — namely in February, when Biden was lagging Bernie Sanders and coronavirus was something impacting other places, not the United States. But Trump arguably was in striking distance of Biden back then, particularly given Trump’s advantages in the Electoral College, which become more important the closer the race is nationally.
Realistically, we don’t plan to make any major, further changes to our ratings until the big events of August have passed: Biden’s vice presidential pick — as well as Trump’s, in the unlikely event he replaces Mike Pence — and the conventions. We can’t promise we’ll hold to that, but historically the weeks after the conventions present a good opportunity to reevaluate.
KYLE KONDIK
Yes….
There is a change in the latest polls more to Biden…
Benjy Sarlin
@benjysarlin
With every possible caveat about November, the story of this particular moment in the campaign is Biden knocking on the door of 400 EVs
In atypical rambling performance on Fox News townhall last night,Trump gave new meaning to the word “gaffe.”
After lambasting Biden for being gaffe proud,Trump said that Biden was going to be elected President .
He may be self sabotaging so he can pit Republicans against each other after his defeat and drive up subscriptions to his grievance network.
He’ll say “establishment Republicans” were just as complicit in his defeat–despite the fact they all capitulated to him. But hey, facts be damned.
Donald Trump watches the cable news channels and gets polling numbers updates…
Let’s face it…..
He’s on a wing and he ain’t got any prayers…
Like 2016 ?
He needs a fucking miracle ….
This time ?
He’s got WAY TOO MUCH of a headwind against another guy who ain’t giving him something to chew on….
My question has and still is….
How long does his party enablers stick with him?
Come Sept 1st if the numbers are actually worst in the polls do they jump ship?
Or?
Do they wait till late Oct when Trump gets a little bump up but it’s evident he’s a goner ?
One other thought that will garner posts later.,..
Trump loses.,..
He’s a mess,
Does the GOPer’s stick by him KNOWING. that in the end Trump is out?
Damn that was a lot.,..
How long have you been beating this dead horse?
Over and over and over and over….
When will you finally “get” it?The Republicans are “all in” with Trump.They have been for four years now.;however, you and others just refuse to accept it.
Not ALL Jack….
Not ALL……
The numbers keep sliding away….
Not much ur right….
But some everyday….
Subliminally conforming the future even from his alternate universe…..
Maybe Mucci and Howard Stern ARE RIGHT
The guy secretly wants to get out of his job?
So why doesn’t he just quit?
This has been Making the rounds since he was elected.
It’s old and boring.
Actually if instead of quitting Trump just kamikazed thr whole Republican Party in 2020 it would serve them right.
The whole party seems to be on a kamikaze mission with him flying the plane, so what difference would it make anyway at this point? He would be gone.
I am not suggesting that if he somehow is not the nominee that Republicans are certain of winning or even have a good chance of winning. No, the situation is a mess and conventional wisdom is that it will take some amount of time for recovery (and major political parties since before the Civil War have always recovered after being declared “dead”.)
Nonetheless, any Republican, Pence included, seems likely to at least do better than Trump would against Biden.
There are people (sorta like me) who will not vote for Trump at this point because he is Trump and they want no part of it. Many of those people may be persuaded to vote for any Republican other than Trump. Of course, you have to balance the number of Trump die-hards who might stay home without him but I think that would be a smaller number than those who would otherwise “stay home” or vote for Biden against Trump.
make sense?
In the unlikely event Trump pulls an LBJ (at a much later date than Johnson did in 68) how would the party to about picking a new nominee?
Trump being the reality TB host might encourage back biting between Pence and whoever else throws a hat in.
Instead of a rose he will bestow a MAGA hat to his preferred candidate to take the mantle.
post-convention?
The RNC would pick one. There are always processes in place for any situation.
My point is that any SOB who puts on a MAGA hat would still get more votes than Trump. (no, not Trump Jr) More likely though, in this admittedly unlikely scenario, the new person would be smart enough to not put on a MAGA hat.
the pinch hitter nominee who doesn’t put on a MAGA hat risks scorn via Twitter from Trump and his minions.
Unless you think he will ride off into the sunset.
I think DJT is gonna a subject of legal action and ridicule after a change in jobs…
The spell coming off others could be VERY INTERESTING….
He could go into international exile too in order to avoid charges, etc.
In the unlikely event any of this happens, I think he would basically slink away for awhile. He would maybe emerge after the election saying he could have done better, but it’s already over at that point.
The idea is that he would quit in order to avoid the embarrassment of a big defeat, though he might not admit it.
If he would quit, much of the crowd who loves him for being a “fighter” would not care about him anymore not to mention all the people who support him only because he is seen as the only option at the moment.
His support is not exactly deep.
On the contrary I think he has millions who are personally invested in him.
Nah. They just don’t like the alternative. And as for him, as soon as he stops being what his biggest fans picture him as “a winner” or a “fighter who never quits fighting”, he loses his luster.
Privately, 90 percent of his voters would admit he isn’t a good person.
I don’t agree with that.
There are Millions that will stick with him to the end.
I know you fervently “wish” that there weren’t.
There are.As for them thinking Trump isn’t a “good person.”
From what I’ve seen of many of his supporters?I don’t consider them “good persons.”
Do
stick with him until the end until the end arrives.
*If* he quits, it’s over and on to the next battle.
The people that support him because they feel they have no other choice is a much greater number than the people who want him and only him.
You are overestimating him as a person and leader. If he was better, he wouldn’t look to be in so much trouble.
If he loses to Biden, especially in a landslide, he will be a laughingstock to many of the people who will vote for him. You just do not understand this. *If* he quits, it is because he has come to the realization he has failed in politics. He will never admit that probably but at his age would likely live a far more private life at that point.
Of course, if Biden loses to Trump to, his voters will turn on him in a tremendous way too and his legacy will be forever ruined.
Oh I agree there are more people that are just sticking with him because it suits them.
That’s not who I’m talking about.
I’m talking about the Maga hat wearing true believers.
And yes there are Millions of them.
And like it or not?They are now a factor that any Republican candidate has to deal with.
Indeed it’s quite obvious.
In Most of the southern states Republicans run against each other on the sole issue of who is most supportive of Trump.
maybe a million or two million at most? Perhaps not even that. The people that go to his rallies or get his face tattooed on them are relatively small in the grand scheme of things, and after him, they will find a new vehicle for their insecurities and inadequacies.
Since this whole discussion is premised on aTrump “withdrawal” which is in the nature of a fantasy we are simply engaging in essentially mindless play acting.
What’s there “not to understand?”
You play your fantasy .I play mine.
See?
That’s going on this cycle in primaries everywhere. It happened in Chicagoland too.
Yes, the party is a cult now with a cult leader at the helm. Whether people are true believers or hostages, “cult”ure takes over. And when he is gone, officially, and the position of being the anti-librul, anti-media or even “anti-establishment” slot opens up, Trump is yesterday’s news to most of them.
I remember how surprised people in the media were back when they saw Iraqis joyously celebrating the toppling of Saddam Hussein. When people are scared, they fall in line.
and the commented upon primary result last Tuesday in North Carolina might be the first visible example that his hold on the party has weakened considerably.
In politics, trickles can turn into floods very fast.
Reality TV host.
Though considering the pandemic Trump veing a TB host was a pretty unintentionally funny autocorrect
Your last sentence is pivotal.
You think that the “die hard “Trumpers would be less than anti Trump Republicans who presumably would support the new candidate.
I’m not as sure about that as you are.
Also,as Scott alluded ,your apparent premise is that Trump just silently fades away.I wouldn’t count on that.
In my view, A withdrawn Trump would be a wounded animal and would,with relish , try to take down any successor candidate(oddly the confirming your oft repeated “Hes not really a Republican” view)
He might go so far as to urge his supporters to “sit it out.”
And ,in my view, there are Millions who would.
The “die-hard Trumpers” are pretty small in number. They are holding a lot of others politically hostage. Of course that does not speak too well of those who allow themselves to be held hostage, but it is what it is.
As I have said for a long time, as soon as Trump is knocked off his perch as the official representative of the “anti-libruls”, he is yesterday’s news.
If Trump wishes to stay on the stage .
He can.
Indeed if defeated in the election?As ex President?He will be the titular head of the Republican Party .
A party that you will once again be a proud member of.
Trump’s preferred candidate may not have won that house primary in NC– but Madison Wharshisname who did had nothing but great things to say about Trump.
Same with Jeff Sessions im Alabama.
When Republicans in contested primaries badmouth Trump I’ll take more notice.
a beginning is a beginning.
Exactly…
Apparently the Trump endorsed candidate was a poor one who Trump endorsed because Mark Meadows wife asked him to.
As far as devotion to Trump….
Tweedledum Tweedledee.
This all began by my post in which I said that a different Republican would get more votes against Biden than Trump will. (or seems likely today to.)
Does anybody actually want to claim that Trump is the person who would get more votes against Biden than someone else?
Trump would.
As would the vast majority of his supporters…aka Republicans
Maybe the question is not clear
who gets more votes
A. Trump against Biden
B. a different Republican against Biden
The Trump die-hards would say A. I think that is clearly not the case, just as the 2016 exit polls show without a doubt that another Republican would have done far better against Hillary.
Are you really going to say A?
I’d say it’s too early to tell whether A or B would hold, because Heaven knows what will transpire in the next four and a half months; actually we mortals do know what will happen — the unexpected.
I agree.
Trump got more popular votes than Romney,McCain or Bush.
So simply stating that,of course any Republican would get more votes than Trump has no particular basis in fact and is Purely speculation.
He got a lower percent of the popular vote than Romney or Bush.
It just seems very obvious that all partisan hats aside, the issue in this election is Trump himself. People are anxious to vote against him more than they are to vote for Biden or for any other reason.
Again, I am not saying a different Republican would win necessarily, but clearly they would at the least “come closer” than it looks like Trump will.
The alternative is that Biden blows it and Trump wins again. Trump cannot win the election at this point. Biden can lose it though.
Now, without Trump, perhaps there would be a lower turnout across the board.
When I say “more votes” I mostly mean in terms of the margin against Biden. I also though think that another Republican would literally get more raw votes.
I DISAGREE with Jack on a post President Donald J Trump….
I believe he WILL be a poriah….
I KNOW Jack thinks Donald Trump is the second coming….
He ISN’T
He has always been from the jump a snake oils
salesman selling real estate…
If you go and check his history?
Every fucking thing he has done has rejected him as a double talking , money grubbing FAKE…
The same IS happening right now….
Jack’s right about that…
But ‘The Donald’ has few if any long term friends or supporters…
He’s fucked them all…
Once out of the White House ?
He’s gonna turn his back on his ‘;supporters’
Why?
Cause he don’t NEED them anymore…
Jack’s basic problem is he thinks Trump cares about the Grand ole’ Party….
He could give shit?
NO‼️
Trump cares about TRUMP….
Does he care about McConnell?
Nope…
Does he care about Barr?
Nope…
Does he care about Flynn?
Nope….
That’s about screwing the judge from getting what HE wants to what Trump wants…
He could pardon Flynn…
But he hasn’t…
CG?
You can debate with Jack all you want….
We’ll have to see….
But I think Donald Trump’s name is gonna be mud after he leaves this job just like he has failed in just about EVERYTHING he’s done in the past….
And if it makes him some money?
He’ll call up Joe Biden and ask him for a favour next year….
Maybe even invite him and other Democrats to his next wedding ….
Nothing you said about me is true.
I don’t think he is the second coming .(which implies that I admire him).
I don’t think he cares about the Republican Party.Indeed any fool could understand my simple point that many of his supporters do think he is the second coming and ,in my view, will stick with him till the end and will still listen to him if he chooses to stay in the public eye .Further those same people ,if Trump chooses to attack the Republican Party, will follow him..
And such could have a major impact on the Republican Party.
As usual ,you have no reading comprehension ability and ,as Zreebs pointed out last week,you are a Liar and when caught in your numerous lies (much like Trump) you try to obfuscate your way out of it.
So start the obfuscation!
I was waiting for ur come back!