It’s gotten so that some of the pundits are worried that Biden’s numbers are so good and Trump is working to make them better….
A new New York Times/Siena poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 14 points nationally, 50% to 36%.
“That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.”
“Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016.”
…
Josh Kraushaar: “Right now, it looks more likely that Biden will win a landslide victory, picking up states uncontested by Democrats in recent elections, than it is that Trump can mount a miraculous turnaround in just over four months. Even as Trump tries to advance a law-and-order pitch amid growing violence and tumult in the nation’s cities, it’s unlikely to benefit the president because he’s the leader in charge. The chaos candidate is now the chaos president. Biden is the challenger pledging a return to normalcy.”
“Just look at the swing-state map: Biden is leading in every battleground state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, with the exception of North Carolina where the race is tied. Trump trails by 6 points in the electoral prize of Florida, where the president’s newfound willingness to meet with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro prompted a fierce backlash and quick White House retreat. He’s down 4 points in Arizona, a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1964. He’s not close to hitting even 45 percent of the vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin—the Midwestern states he flipped to win the presidency.”
“Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is airing ads in Iowa and Ohio, two states he won by near double-digit margins in 2016, as recent polls show Trump in precarious shape in both states.”
“President Trump has repeatedly pushed inflammatory language, material and policies in recent days that seek to divide Americans by race as he tries to appeal to his predominantly white base of voters four months before Election Day rather than try to broaden his support,” the New York Times reports.
“Trailing in national polls and surveys of crucial battleground states, and stricken by a disappointing return to the campaign trail, Mr. Trump has leaned hard into his decades-long habit of falsely portraying some black Americans as dangerous or lawless. And he has chosen to do so at one of the most tumultuous periods in decades as Americans protest recent episodes of police brutality against black people that have highlighted the nation’s long history of racial injustice.”
“Over the last few days the president has tweeted context-free videos of random incidents involving black people attacking white people and baselessly argued that President Barack Obama, the country’s first black leader, committed ‘treason.’”….
…
Mike Allen: “President Trump’s campaign, recognizing that he’ll lose to himself if November’s election is a referendum on him, is trying to flush Joe Biden into open combat by challenging him to more debates, taunting him as ‘Hidin’ Biden,’ and posing a ‘Question of the day for Joe Biden.’”
“Expect more of this. The Trump campaign is getting very frustrated that Biden is keeping a low profile and letting Trump give himself uppercuts every day.”…
All above @ Politicalwire….
The Decline of the American World
Tom McTague: “It is hard to escape the feeling that this is a uniquely humiliating moment for America. As citizens of the world the United States created, we are accustomed to listening to those who loathe America, admire America, and fear America (sometimes all at the same time). But feeling pity for America? That one is new, even if the schadenfreude is painfully myopic. If it’s the aesthetic that matters, the U.S. today simply doesn’t look like the country that the rest of us should aspire to, envy, or replicate.”
“Even in previous moments of American vulnerability, Washington reigned supreme. Whatever moral or strategic challenge it faced, there was a sense that its political vibrancy matched its economic and military might, that its system and democratic culture were so deeply rooted that it could always regenerate itself. It was as if the very idea of America mattered, an engine driving it on whatever other glitches existed under the hood. Now, something appears to be changing. America seems mired, its very ability to rebound in question. A new power has emerged on the world stage to challenge American supremacy—China—with a weapon the Soviet Union never possessed: mutually assured economic destruction.”
Yes?
He’s trying to lose?
Ezra Klein
@ezraklein
It’s not just that Trump is way down in the polls that puts his reelection campaign in such dangerous territory. It’s that he refuses to believe he’s down, and make strategic adjustments based on a theory of why he’s down.
Resolve.Action.Love
@Snowman55403
Replying to
@ezraklein
Good. And let’s hope he’s a lead weight on McConnell, Collins, Gardner et al.
Damn!…
This stays anywhere near this until November and it IS OVER….
A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden widening his lead over Donald Trump, 49% to 41%.
In early May, it was Biden 46% to 43%…
Politicalwire…
Making America Great Again!
The noteworthy factor in that Siena/NYT poll is that Trump,at least in this poll, is actually falling below the Republican base vote which is generally in the low forties.
Just a snapshot ,of course ,but this is really dangerous territory for him.
At this point what will change tbe trajectory of the rac
The news cycle has covered pandemic, recession, protests, economy reopening, pandemic again. Through it all Biden’s lead is either steady or slightly growing depending on the poll.
I heard that the young Republicans gathered in Arizona yesrerday were chanting “lock her up”. So they are still running against Hillary apparently. Do they think that’s gonna change the race? Reminds me of when GHW Bush campaign suddenly figured out that running against Clinton as a hayseed womanizer who protested Vietnam wasn’t working so they brought up Mike Dukakis.
You don’t win today’s game playing against yesterday’s opposing team.
The Republican obsession with Hillary Clinton is beyond comprehension.
That kind of hate has no known cure that I’m aware of.
The woman is rarely talked about anymore and her emails thing seems almost quaint in the Age of Trump.
In fact though as I think is evident,they couldn’t care less about the alleged “crime.” They care only about their hate.
Sick…
Hillary Clinton just wasn’t destined to be President…..
Republican’s hates her….
She didn’t campaign well…
Heck?
Even some Democrats hated her….
Bringing her back up ain’t gonna work except to juice up a few GOP base voters…
But she IS popular with some Democrats and Biden certainly takes her calls….
How do you know Biden “takes her calls.”
They never were close.
Biden may harbor resentment over her being anointed as the candidate in 2016 rather than him.
Jack?
She endorsed him and is doing fundraising for him ….
Of course they speak to each other….
Link….
THAT HASZ been pointed out by some of us for a while…
What has been “pointed out?”
Some Trump support slippage ….
Unlike you who just make “wish” type statements, “some of us” prefer to see some real evidence before uh “pointing” things out.
In the above I was “pointing” something out based on actual evidence ,rather than making a statement of fact based on nothing more that a desire that the statement be true.
Biden polling ahead of Trump by a few points in NC and Ohio….
Ohio swung pretty hard right in 2016
Interesting to see it coming back as a swing state.
Honestly I was wondeeing if it were too far gone and Democrats would just have to make up those electoral votes with blue trending subnet states like AZ and GA.
Even coming back as a battleground state Ohio is not likely to be the one that makes the difference like it did in 2004. Back then Virginia was pretty safely Republican and states like Colorado and New Mexico were fairly close.
If Biden is declared the Victor in Ohio he has likely already taken Michigan Pennsylvania Florida and possibly North Carolina and will be on track to win Arizona when those polls close later in the night. It would already be game over for Republicans.
Scott, see this “tipping-point” page at Electoral-Vote.com
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html
which projects (based on relatively small margins today) that Ohio would tip back into the D column after the GOP loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada, but before the GOP loses Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Texas or Arkansas.
NC, Iowa and Ohio voted for Obama at least once, but Georgia & Arizona (each carried once but not twice by Bill Clinton) voted for both McCain & Romney.
I should add that Arkansas voted for Bill Clinton in both 1992 & 1996, but against Obama in both 2008 & 2012,
Ah?
Bill Clinton was Governor of what state?
The theme of this back and forth is still assuming Biden has it in hand easily…Now let us fast forward and say this is true and he breezes to a November Election…Can you imagine the job he has to do…it is absolutely fucking mind boggling the amount of shit he will have to fix…At first I didn’t think the VP mattered that much, but now I really feel he needs someone strong and who is actually ready to run part of the country on their own…we almost need a duel president to put this shit back together…
I think Susan Rice is the right VP candidate…allow her to the focus on foreign policy and foreign diplomacy…while Biden works on building the domestic front back together…none of the Other VP candidates I think are truly up to that except for maybe Warren…but then she would have to focus on domestic and Biden focus on international..
She is perfect, black, female, not too old, not too young and has a shit ton of international experience…and her personal story is wonderful and she can communicate really well…
Thanks for the support on Rice Bdog….
One handicap she is said to have is the lack of running for office….
I see THAT as a strength …..
Added to her having actual experience that none of the others have ….
We’ll see….
Carly Fiorina ,who was a Republican presidential candidate in 2016 and was named Ted Cruz’s prospective VP candidate ,has had enough.
She says that Donald Trump needs to go and that she isn’t playing any games by writing in a candidate or not voting ,but will instead vote for Joe Biden.
Good for Fiorina.
Oh she’s probably finished in the Republican Party but she is exhibiting real integrity.
Good to hear Fiorina is voting for Biden.
As there is no Evan McMullen this time around the whole “I’ll write in a conservative” is as you said Jack–a game. There is no conservative alternative choice this time around. I would guess McMullen may eventually announce his support for Biden too.
I’m sure Trump will tweet something nasty about Carly today. And the shameless chump Ted Cruz will probably try to hide in shame. The woman he picked as his running mate voting against the guy who said Cruz’s wife was ugly and his dad killed JFK. What will Ted do?
Just kidding. We all know that slime will continue to suck up to Trump. How pathetic.
More frayed edges, eh Jack?
I doubt Fiorinas declaration will have any effect upon many other Republicans.
I found it noreworthy though since she was a former presidential candidate .
Indeed, it likely ends any hopes she had to advance within the Republican Party .I would imagine that she made her decision with that in mind.
A new poll of African-Americans shows Biden leading by a comical 92-5%
I’m sure the wackos over on the site CG visits have all sorts of reasons why the poll is wrong and Trump’s support is WAYYY higher among blacks. And of course those wackos are almost all white.
Yes every presidential election we hear that “this” time it will be different and that Republicans are making“ significant “ inroads among Black voters.
As I mentioned the other day,the Black vote for Republican presidential candidates has remained consistent over the past fifty years or so ,hovering around 10% ,sometime a little more ,sometime a little less.
Like everything else about Trump, the idea that his Black support would “increase” is in the nature of a “wish,” with nothing to suggest any realism to such a statement.
I’m gonna post some twitter stuff from Nate Cohn and Silver on the states and EC votes…
The Lincoln Project which has been running some very effective anti Trump commercials is ,as we all know, made up of some anti Trump Republican political operatives.
Lately, however, it appears the Project has expanded its scope and is not only taking on Trump but also other Republicans.
They have an anti Mitch McConnell ad out and the other day endorsed Montana Democratic Governor Steve Bullock for the US Senate.
As I’ve noted none of the members of the group are elected Republican officials .Most are probably unknown to the general public. I am though a little surprised to see them “branching out” so to speak.By opposing McConnell and endorsing Bullock ,they are implicitly attacking the Republican Senate majority.
How “Republican “ are they?
Soon to be former ones I would guess
Actually if you view their website,they only use the word “Republican “:in their thumbnail biographies .
Indeed several members are noted as former Republicans.
There is a mention of “differences” with national Democrats.
Trump keeps touting his support at 90% plus of Republicans. And he is probably right. But the Republican Party is draining members every day under his Presidency. And not just “never Trumpers” if they are now doing as George Will states they should and targeting Trump’s GOP lackeys in the Senate.
In Arizona, the Republican party is very nervous because the party base is shrinking and independents are leaning Democratic.
CG sometimes checks the site I believe…
And one or two of them where actually here a while ago….
Couldn’t take it….
Still it DOES show more leakage of Republicans due to Donald Trump….
They have a new ad out. It’s great.
https://twitter.com/projectlincoln/status/1276112782187003904?s=21
I have been splitting my time raising money for Joe and this group. All of them were Republican political appointees or campaign operatives. Kellyanne’s husband is one of them. But Steve Schmidt is my favorite.
Schmidt saw the light by sitting among the Democrats over on the news set….
PoliticalWire now lists just six states as toss-ups after the latest round of Rated A polls.
https://electoralvotemap.com/
Notice Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan–the states that put Trump over the top–are now considered lean Dem. Even without the toss-ups Biden wins.
Of course no one should be complacent and consider those states “safe” by any stretch. Fight till Nov. 3.
Yea Scott….
i’ll have more later…
But the EV race is MUCH closer then the national polling…
No, James, if anything, the projected Democratic preponderance in Electoral Votes is (because of the College’s nature and the statewide unit rules) far GREATER than the difference in national popular votes. It’s the reverse mirror of 2016 (rather than, say, 2000 or 1916, where close popular margins were matched by tight Electoral College differences).
Since there are no evenly split state polls at the moment, the liberal-managed (but objective) http://www.Electoral-Vote.com has no toss-ups and shows Biden thrashing (or trashing) Trump 368-170 (68.4%-31.6%), with the following 8 states swinging D:
Dem pickups vs. 2016: AZ FL GA MI NC OH PA WI
This is also true of the conservative-managed (but also objective) http://www.ElectoralProjection.com , which tries to eschew toss-ups altogether. ElectProject give Biden a slightly-lighter Electoral College margin of 334-204 (62.1%-37.9%), flipping the following 6 states and 1 CD to Biden:
Ariz, Fla, Mich, 2nd Neb., NC, Pa & Wisc.
(basically keeping Ohio & Georgia in the R column when Electoral-Vote swings them D).
http://RealClearPolitics.com (cons. but objective) has no fewer than 11 tossup states plus that Nebraska 2nd District for a total of 191 undecided Electoral Votes, with Biden leading Trump 222-125.
The sited cited by Scott, http://www.ElectoralVoteMap.com (presumably non-partisan although I really don’t know) gives Biden only a bare 279 Electors (10 more than break-even) against 163 for Trump, because of 96 undecided Electoral Votes from these half-dozen (surprise!) tossup states (all of which voted for Clinton, Gore or Obama at least once):
Ariz, Fla, Ga, NC, Iowa & Ohio.
As is usually the case, I wouldn’t be surprised if (as in 2016) the Electoral College margin is far greater than the one in popular votes.
I will have a challenge to that DSD….
I’m coming off the road in a while…
Here are some new numbers from a pro-Trump group:
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1276163193786818572
The SOBs who spend their day worrying about DJT deserve to feel what they are feeling.
you guys who want a Democrat as President, better really, really, really, really really hope he doesn’t declare for Political Bankruptcy and quit the race to avoid being embarrassed. Anybody else with an R next to their name would *at least* have a better chance now.
If he does quit, he will probably wait to the last month or so and blame it all on the Republican for not supporting him strongly enough.
However ,I would puts the odds of that as about 1 in 10.
Trump remembers last time and no matter how bad the polls look ,and with encouragement from his family, will still think he can pull it out.
1 in 10 ? that good?
if he dies quit i agree with U guys….
he spends November and December fucking things up worst….
Quits….
Gets Pence to pardon him and could leave the of the country hanging…
Remember that Trump will also have the greater part of January to sabotage the next President, and (as collateral damage) the whole country.
Maybe. Another rumor is that Trump will resign in early January so President Pence can pardon him during his three week Presidency
For that to happen sitting Republican Senators and Congressmen would have to tell him he is certain to lose. Sort of like Goldwater and other GOP Senators did to Nixon in August of 1974.
Right now they are all standing firm in their support. Yesterday John Thune said Trump could still get the voters in the middle back if he just changed his tone.
I’m sure this is a pipe dream of yours that the Republican Party could be rid of Trumpism in a weekend. Ain’t gonna happen.
can’t blame someone for dreaming..
Jack says 1 in 10 odds Trump quits. I think more like 1 in 50.
And if he did drop out I wouldn’t put it past him to do a Ross Perot and try to reenter the race. Sure he wouldn’t have ballot access but he could mess with the GOP saying he was the “rightful candidate” and they need to support him instead with a write-in.
Be careful of what you wish for.
No it’s not.
Further, and I’ve expressed this on numerous occasions, I don’t see Trump just waltzing off into that good night after a defeat.
There will be recriminations galore ,directed as much at Republicans as Democrats.
His supporters ,of which there are millions ,will back him up.
No ,the idea that let him lose and the Republican Party will go back to the way it was when Mitt Romney was nominated in 2012 ,is a pipe dream in my view.The Republican Party will be in for a real civil war and it won’t be pretty,
The defection from the Democratic Party of Goldwater’s and George Wallace’s voters, after a huge split in the Democratic Party led to the Democrats’ opponents winning five of the next six elections (all but 1976).
The question is what form GOP disagreement take?
If there’s a temporary breakaway, as in the Bull Moose Progressives from Taft in 1912, not very lasting.
If the GOP does split in two (with one faction or the other holding onto the RNC and the Republican label), that could promote a Democratic hegemony over several terms.
on this?
Republican lawmakers would on their own and would turn on his agenda ….
we’re talking about a possible blow out vote here….
Pence goes down with ship…
Dem’s take the Senate also
The only caution is the 2022 midterms
Democrats canNOT go too far to the left
Remember the 2010 midterms…
my feeling is that Trump out of office is gonna generate a LOT of civil legal efforts to take his money….
with that will go his kids ….
those who think Trump Jr. will keep the brand going could be VERY. wrong….
James, with your endless refrain against Democrats going “too far to the left”, I have visions of you endorsing John Nance Garner in 1932 because FDR was too much of a lefty, or of thinking that the best Democrat in the White House has been your fellow New York stater, Grover Cleveland. 😉
He, he, he….
Ok…
I’ll cut it back since Biden is actually left of Obama….