His avenue’s to a win continue to be many….
And it would appear that Donald Trump is NOT gaining ground even with the gradual reopening of all 50 states….
And the full effect of the economy slowing is NOT going anywhere soon…
Oh, and the daily media stories on his bending norms and the rules aren’t helping either…
This isn’t looking like a 2016 repeat….
Maybe Joe Biden isn’t leading President Trump by 7 points in Arizona, as one poll showed yesterday.
But Biden has been ahead of Trump in every Arizona poll released this year. And that Arizona advantage opens up more paths to 270 electoral votes for Biden — especially those that don’t require him to win Wisconsin.
Just take a look at these scenarios, assuming a battleground mapwith the toss-up states being Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and giving Trump the single electoral votes in Maine’s second district and Nebraska’s second district):
Biden wins AZ, MI, PA — but loses WI, FL and NC
Biden 279 electoral votes, Trump 259
Biden wins AZ and FL — but loses MI, NC, PA and WI
Biden 272, Trump 266
Biden wins AZ, NC and MI — but loses FL, PA and WI
Biden 274, Trump 264
And speaking of North Carolina, where Trump and Biden are essentially tied right now, the Tar Heel State opens even more paths to 270 for the former vice president.
Biden wins MI, PA and NC — but loses AZ, NH and WI
Biden 279, Trump 259
And with 167 days until Election Day and in the midst of this coronavirus pandemic, this is the political reality right now: We’re talking about viable paths for Biden — backed up by poll numbers — in Arizona and North Carolina. (And you might want to start including Georgia in this conversation, too.)
But for Trump, we’re not talking about him putting Minnesota or New Mexico or Virginia (which he mentioned yesterday) in serious play. At least right now.
What Arizona and North Carolina have in common for Dems is a pretty strong ticket — up and down the ballot — where we’re going to see competitive Senate and gubernatorial races as well….
Maybe Joe Biden SHOULD stay in his basement and watch Trump throw this thing all by himself?