Add Rothenberg to the growing list of us pundits that see Donald J. Trump as a one term President….
More than two months ago, even before COVID-19 became all-consuming in our lives, I wrote a column arguing that the presidential race had changed from a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic.
That significant change had nothing to do with the coronavirus. Instead, it followed from changes in the fundamentals of the 2020 presidential contest, including the end of the Democratic race, the inevitable nomination of former Vice President Joe Biden, and President Donald Trump’s continued poor standing in the polls.
Now, a little more than two months after that March 18 column, much has happened. Approximately 100,000 Americans have died from the coronavirus. The stock market went down and then back up again. Tens of millions of Americans have become unemployed. Multiple inspectors general have been fired. There have been political gaffes and controversies. And the president has tweeted and tweeted and tweeted.
Despite all these developments, I see little reason to change my assessment of the presidential race. The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the trajectory of the contest is essentially unchanged, with Biden holding a comfortable lead in national polling and having multiple paths to 270 electoral votes.
While daily developments give the cable television networks something to chatter about, today’s big story will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and another one the day after that. But the fundamentals of the race remain unchanged.
That doesn’t mean the outcome is inevitable. A dramatic development could change things. But for now, Trump’s options are narrowing as Election Day approaches. The White House will need to do something dramatic to alter the trajectory of the race….
The one exception is Jason Furman…
But he’s NOT a pundit…
He’s an economist …