Jason Furman’s Politico ‘Great Economy recovery’ piece for Trump is wrong….

The former cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.

“Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.

Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.

Furman’s counterintuitive pitch has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic. “This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

And top policy officials on the Biden campaign are preparing for a fall economic debate that might look very different than the one predicted at the start of the pandemic in March. “They are very much aware of this,” said an informal adviser.

Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound…..

More…

Here’s my list of reasons Furman is peddling something that that just ain’t happening , but will make Trump & Co. happy…Maybe they’s send him a check? and Red MAGA hat?

1. Business closing  and bankruptcy’s have not stoped…Hertz, the Gap, J.C. Penny, More…
2. The American economy IS small business…Not the mega ones…7.5 of them are estimated to have gone …How many people have lost pay checks from this?…Furman thinks these businesses will come back in a month or two?…REALLY?
3. People have been buying food and paper products…There was NO Spring and there won’t be any Summer or Fall clothing seasons for retailers….No big mall sales coming back anytime soon…
4. The jobless benefits filing number is almost 40 Million people...That’s just those who filed…That isn’t the total number of people who where laid-off or furloughed or just plain out of a job….Except for Furman?…Anybody think millions are just gonna back to work?…Their jobs will just be their waiting?…
5. Even if their employers WANT them to return to work?…Hoe many people in urban location’s will get back on packed public transportation to go back to work?
6. A rebound in the economy is gonna involve China…The country that Donald Trump is back trying beat up …A country that send’s America cheap goods …That American’s can afford with LESS income coming in…
7. In some states?…People cannot go into retail stores…As long as THAT is the case?…Those stores sales will be capped…Even when they are allowed to roam the aisles…Some people will NOT do so for a while…
8. On-line sales vs In-Store sales….Less in-store sales means less employee’s…means less payroll means less employee’s spending money…
9. Immigration…With the new blood of immigrant’s cut off by the Trump admin?…The extra buying power and labor will NOT be a pump for the economy that they normally would be around the edges…
10. The uncertainty of the fall school openings will continue to worry parents and effect the fall employment picture also…School staff’s, parents and support staff  number in the hundreds of thousand ‘s ….
11. The virus restrictions have cut the tax revenue for local, state and federal governments…That means budget holes for them…That means while Furman thinks people will be coming back to work…Governments maybe furloughing and not hiring civil service workers…
12. Real Estate and Housing payments are off…Closed business means no rent to the landlords….
13. No work money means no rent or mortgage payments that will be put off for a few months, but then?…Are expected to be paid?
14. Consumer prices?…Anybody think consumer prices are gonna go down?

Joe Biden IS doing fine right now….

The worst of the economy most ‘experts ‘ think is ahead of us and won’t just magically turn around before the summer ends…

The virus numbers in the big urban centres are going down…

But across rural America?

The virus is running like a grass fire and those places have a lot of people who are helping the virus spread by trying to ignore it….

I don’t think this virus and economy hit is just going to be a hiccup….

And I don’t think Donald Trump is gonna be able to spin it into a bad dream that just went away so he could get re-elected for four more years….