Why?
The gamblers are betting on dropping virus numbers and a jump in the economy….
The betting markets took HUGE loss on Trump’s win in 2016…
Even after the White House’s delayed response to the coronavirus outbreak, unprecedented job losses and a bruising recession, investors and betting markets are still putting their money on President Trump to win re-election.
The big picture: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls — but money managers expect Trump to retake the White House in November.
- In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.
- But 52% think Trump will win.
The intrigue: The world’s most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.
- The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.
- Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump versus $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, Bovada shows.
What we’re hearing: The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say….
Those bettors must know something that no one else does.
Except for Trump and a few of his acolytes,I know of no one who believes there will be an economic revival anytime soon.
Even Trumps own economic advisor Kevin Hassett says that there will be little recovery till next year.
Now that jack of all trades Jared Kushner says that the economy will be hopping by July.
Apparently the bettors believe Trump and Kushner!
Let’m fuck up again….
The bettors might be looking more to the Stock Market, which has somewhat rebounded to 24,000.
I think the DJIA is of much less importance when we have unemployment rates in the high teens or even low 20′, depending on how bad it gets going forward.
Can a President win reelection with that sort of unemployment rate? Don’t think it’s happened before.
The market and the bettors are gambling on HOPE…
The bettors lost a TRAIN LOAD of money back in 2016…
I HOPE they lose MORE come November better on the Big guy…
Every day I look the market, I look at my stocks and I look at the unemployment numbers and I think about how does a service economy get back to servicing with so many people scared and when we do get back and we don’t follow guidelines with mask and numbers of virus cases spike again I worry and think should I sell…I can sell now and take the gains, or wait and hope that even it dips again, the old axiom is the market always recovers and you will make your money back…Not sure that’s a bet I am willing to take…
The market will recover EVENTUALLY….
How patient are ya Dog?