Probably…
If Biden can recapture the state from Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton?
It would make his electoral numbers quest a whole LOT easier…
The story of the 2016 election has often been told like this: “Donald Trump secured victory by breaking through the big blue wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.” It’s how you end up with all those stories about Trump voters in Midwest diners. Heading into 2020, there’s still a lot of focus on those pivotal states.
But when you look at the electoral math, it’s pretty clear that former Vice President Joe Bidenwould be wise to look beyond those states and make a heavy investment in Florida.
Florida was a very close state in 2016. Trump won it by just 1.2 points, which is not significantly wider than the margins he won Michigan (0.2 points), Pennsylvania (0.7 points) and Wisconsin (0.8 points). The next closest state (Arizona) featured a significantly larger Trump win (3.5 points). In fact, the presidential margin in Florida has been within 6 points in every election since 1992, including when Democrat Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012. No other state has been within that range for so long.
The polling in 2020 makes Florida look like it will be close again. Biden holds a three-point advantage in the Sunshine State in an average of nonpartisan probability polls that controls for pollster. That’s closer than Wisconsin (one-point Biden lead), and the same as what we see as in Pennsylvania. Biden is up four points in Arizona and five points in Michigan. (North Carolina, another close Trump won state in 2016, gives Biden a one-point edge, but the high quality polling there has been limited.)
Note…
Donald Trump now calls Florida his home state….
The Republican governor DeSantis is in a political hole right now…
image…CNBC.Com
Biden has many more paths than Trump does at this point.
Up until the Wisconsin primary where the conservative Trump chosen boy was voted off the state supreme court in a landslide I thought Cheeseheads may be too far gone and the best route would be for Biden to take Arizona to make up for WI electoral votes.
Florida is always close and with their economy dependent on tourism one can see why DeSantis wants to immediately reopen. But tourists from other states may not be as quick to visit again.