Here’s the lineup….
| March 10 | ||
| Idaho | Primary | Primary |
| Michigan | Primary | Primary |
| Mississippi | Primary | Primary |
| Missouri | Primary | Primary |
| North Dakota | Primary | Caucus |
| Washington | Primary | Primary |
Real Clear Politics averages for the above listed below , except where stated …
Idaho...No polls….25 Delegates (538 gives Idaho to Sanders )
Michigan.…Biden +6….125 Delegetes
Mississippi.…Biden +25 SurveyMonkey 7/2019…
Missouri.…Biden +4….68 Delegates
North Dakota ….No Polls…14 Delegates (538 gives ND to Sanders)
Washington…Sanders…+8….89 Delegates
Remember …
Joe Biden IS Over performing…
Bernie Sanders Under performing…
Biden’s Max pool seems to be 218 delegates ….
Sanders Max pool seems to be 47.delegates ..
image…reviewjournal.com
The Hill piece on polling for Tuesday’s contests….
((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
The lack of polling has, I think, made people not realize what good shape Biden is right now. It’s not over, but, unless things dramatically shift in the next 72, Biden’s going to very much build on that delegate lead on Tuesday.
60% in Michigan
Biden…..53%
Sanders…40%…
Larry Sabato
@LarrySabato
OK, NBC declares Biden the winner in MICHIGAN, to go with his victories in Missouri and Mississippi. The #SuperTuesday trend of March 3 is continuing. Close to…the obvious end. #Primaries2020
NBC calls Michigan FOR Joe Biden……
Latest poll out of Michigan has a over performing Joe Biden above the MOE at +6 ahead of Bernie….
But?
The Hill
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Sunday predicted that he would win the Michigan presidential primary on Tuesday, adding that he would not withdraw from the 2020 race if he lost in the Great Lakes State.
Desperation …..
Sanders also said that he was not a masochist, and would not continue his campaign once he felt it were lost.
Key part is subjective?
…..’once he felt it were lost’……
Talking Points Memo
@TPM
Sanders says he would not consider dropping out if he loses the Michigan primary
It appears that Washington primary has walked away from Sanders in the polling….
Washington: Even in Washington, Data for Progress finds Biden leading Sanders 47%-44% with Warren drawing 5% from early votes and Gabbard 3%. A SurveyUSA poll had Biden leading Sanders 36%-35% with Warren at 10% before she dropped. Remember, this state is no longer a caucus- and it shows….
RRH Elections…
Talking Points Memo Retweeted
Kate Riga
@Kate_Riga24
Two new polls pubbed today have Biden up 24 and 30 points, respectively. Expect the 2016 Michigan primary polling snafu to be on the tip of Sanders’ tongue the next couple days
33% in for Michigan
52% Biden
42% Sanders
Nate Cohen
Biden wins Missouri and Mississippi, according to projections based on exit polls. He’s ahead by more than 20 in Missouri and nearly 60 in Mississippi
Biden wins Missouri!
4 yrs ago Hillary beat Sanders by 1000 votes statewide.
It’s 8:02 PM
Mississippi ans Missouri are projected Biden wins right off the bat….
The last few comments are out of sequence…
They where done by me in the wrong post comment’s string
Biden thanks Bernie Sanders supporters in his victory speech…
Good Move…
Idaho and Washington State primaries ARE over…
Exit polls have Biden with good sized leads….
Biden pulls slightly aheads in Wash State
60% in Wash State
Biden…33.1
Sanders..32.5
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Exit polls had Biden winning WA late deciders by a huge margin so yeah this is probably bad for Sanders. Although, young voters can be slow to turn in their ballots too even if they knew who they were voting for.
…
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
So we’ve basically got the whole ultra-early vote in Washington this point, and Sanders is up by two-tenths of a point. I’d guess that’s not where Sanders would want to be, given where we’ve seen things break at this point in other states
Idaho…
18% in
Biden…45.1%
Sanders.35.4
Idaho…
33% in
Biden…..46.4%
Sanders…38.9%
ND…
10% in…
Sanders…39.7
Biden…..26.2
Wash State
67% in
Sanders….32.7%
Biden……32.5%
Idaho….
99% in
Biden….48.9%
Sanders..42.5%
North Dakota...
100% in..
Sanders…53%
Biden…..$0%
Dave Wasserman
I’ve seen enough: Joe Biden wins the Michigan primary.
(This is NOT and official call… Just his feeling)
Survey USA says it better than I could [emphasis added]</i<];
In SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle, in interviews completed after Super Tuesday, after Mike Bloomberg dropped out but mostly before Elizabeth Warren dropped out, the contest at this hour stands:
* Biden, 36%.
* Sanders, 35%.
* Warren, who was included in the survey but who subsequently suspended her campaign, 10%.
* One of the other Democrats still on the ballot but no longer running, 13%.
* The nominal 1 point separating Biden and Sanders is not statistically significant.
* The contest should be characterized as even; Biden should not be described as leading nor Sanders as trailing.
* Because Washington allocates its 107 convention delegates proportionally, the ultimate popular vote win may be symbolic.
* Both Biden and Sanders would receive approximately the same number of delegates, should the candidates finish within a couple points of each other.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=017c2b2d-c3b9-4315-9f9d-874cd64ba945
Remember since SC Biden IS OVERperforming….
This is for 24 hours from now….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Quite a spread in Michigan polls but they all point to Biden well ahead:
Monmouth: Biden +15
Mitchell Research & Communications: Biden +21
EPIC-MRA: Biden +24
Concord Public Opinion Partners: Biden +30
Target Insyght: Biden +41
Of the last 6 Michigan polls available on RCP?
Biden is ahead by a range of +12 to +41…..
The average is +22.4…
Bernie Sanders DID SAY he would win in Michigan like he did 4 years ago….
Hmmmmm?
However, the fact that RealClearPolitics’ polling average for Washington state has moved Biden’s way by 10% (+8 Sanders to +2 Biden) is significant, although that still isn’t a wide-enough margin to call the race either way (where previously Sanders was clearly leading).
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wa/washington_democratic_primary-7005.html
Harry Enten
Worth noting again that the road just gets tougher for Sanders from here on out. In our polling, Sanders is down ~30 pts in the states left to vote after tonight (in polling taken after Warren left the race).
Biden takes the lead in Washington State Democratic primary right now…
California is STILL counting the Democratic primary ballots…
Nate Silver
It’s hard to imagine Sanders hanging on in Washington with this big a Biden margin in the new wave of votes.
Joe Biden appears to have won Washington State’s Democratic Presidential primary after all…..
Nate Cohn
With Biden poised for a comfortable victory in Washington, despite the early vote handicap, I think it’s safe to say that Biden is favored to win every remaining state-run primary if the race stays about where it is today