The polls have Bernie Sanders ahead of Joe Biden in the Democratic state with the most Presidential primary delegates …
That was before Joe Biden’s blowout win in South Carolina….
The number of early voters is around 40% , which means 60% of the Democrats could vote with the knowledge of Biden’s big win in SC….
Could Biden get a ‘bounce’ from his win?
Would it be enough to catch Sanders in California?
Despite his weak polling in California, there’s a silver lining emerging for Joe Biden in the biggest delegate prize on the board next week.
Biden’s weakness after a distant second finish in Nevada could have compelled Californians who have been voting since the Iowa caucuses to support a moderate alternative who was doing better at the time. But there’s a big upside for Biden: A huge number of them haven’t voted yet. The portion of returned ballots at this stage is much lower than in recent elections — and his campaign is counting on a late surge of support among those holdouts after his dominant performance on Saturday.
Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters to date from the last two California presidential primaries. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the last five elections.
“People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”
These so-called “perfect” Democratic voters dropped from 57% turnout by this point in 2008, and 62% turnout in 2016, to 46% turnout so far this year, according to the data compiled and shared by Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. That means Biden, coming off South Carolina, has more room to expand his support before Tuesday.
“If all of these really high-performing Democratic voters had already cast their ballots then it narrows the window that you have to actually make an impact on Monday and Tuesday right before the election,” Mitchell said.
Biden turned in a huge performance in South Carolina, notching his first win in three presidential campaigns and positioning himself to ride the momentum. But in California, Biden is struggling to break double digits in polls and Sanders is the clear frontrunner….
image…41NBC.Com
I can hope for in California Biden can shrink the margin there and the actual vote go more his way…It could be enough at 60% to change things…
Could Biden’s bounce out of South Carolina be strong enough to get him a slam win in California?
Via twitter
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
All anecdotal of course, but I’ve got a lot of text messages tonight from friends out West telling that their parents–previously undecided, Warren, Amy–deciding in favor of Biden after South Carolina
…
Ellen Bender
@ElvinBen
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
I just got a similar text from a friend who told me that her 27-year-old and his friends in San Francisco were all voting for Biden after SC too.
…
Richard Jones
@RBartleby
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
I was previously undecided, preferring Warren, then Klobuchar, but voted for Biden here in California after South Carolina made it clear he’s the viable non-Sanders. Sanders would be a disaster for the Democrats, and re-electing Trump a disaster for the US.
Political Polls
#NEW #California @atlas_intel Poll (2/24-3/2):
Sanders 34%
Biden 26
Warren 15
Bloomberg 15
Buttigieg 3%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
This poll had some after SC readbacks
My guess is Sanders wins Ca…. But the margin will be less than the poll …
Joe Biden is bound to OVERPERFORM tomorrow
1,344 Delegates up for grabs …..
MSNBC Kornacki
Sanders delegate numbers will drop…Ca
Biden will get delegates in Minn with Klobuchar out…
Biden get delegates in MORE STATES even he gets some lossses….
After all the Sanders runaway stuff?
The new narrative is the delegate race between just Biden and Sanders
California primary count update….
Sanders lead dropping ….
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Since about this time last night, there have been an additional 277k votes counted in CA.
Those new votes are Sanders+5, 34-29; the vote in those counties at this point last night was Sanders+10, 35-25
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Replying to
@Nate_Cohn
As with everything in CA, you’ve got to be cautious in interpreting these data. It’s from just 11 counties. And I don’t know exactly what kind of ballots these are, and certain kinds could be far more or less favorable to either candidate
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
This is the big question. Suppose, for instance, that the first ballots counted are those that arrived earliest? If so, could these ballots break toward Biden every day? I just don’t know, though perhaps someone else can weigh in
Quote Tweet